Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — May 6, 2026

FINAL+4MIL

MIL

19-16

STL

21-15

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

25,772 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

STL no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.5%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
48.5%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.1%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.7%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.8medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.6± 5.0low
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.3± 1.2high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.3± 1.4high
Cooper PrattMIL
1.2± 1.0low

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.7± 3.1high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.2± 1.7high
JJ WetherholtSTL
2.1± 3.0high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.2high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.5low

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium
Brandon SproatMIL
2.9± 2.0low
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

STL

.734

OPS

.719

.730

.340

OBP

◀

.319

.328

5.29

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.65

3.45

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.29

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 6 · STL 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	6
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. FrelickRF	.220	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. ChourioLF	.667	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
B. Turang2B	.305	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
W. ContrerasC	.286	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. Bauers1B	.259	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
A. Vaughn1B	.250	4	1	2	3	1	0	0
T. BlackDH	.360	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HamiltonSS	.236	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. OrtizSS	.184	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. LockridgeLF	.277	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	11	5	1	3	6

Player

.220

.667

.305

.286

.259

.250

.360

.236

.184

.277

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SproatSP	4.0	1	0	0	3	5	76
D. HallRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
A. AshbyRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	28
T. MegillRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	21
A. UribeRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16
Team	9.0	4	2	2	4	9	152

Player

4.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.239	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.248	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. Burleson1B	.268	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.303	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
N. Gorman3B	.227	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
M. WinnSS	.265	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. ChurchLF	.248	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.228	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Scott IICF	.189	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.257	2	0	0	1	0	1	0
C. Prieto3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	4	2	0	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PallanteSP	6.0	8	5	5	2	3	104
J. ShusterRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	33
M. SvansonRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	27
Team	9.0	11	6	6	3	6	164

Team

MIL

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.