
MIL
19-16

STL
21-15
Line movement
200 snapshots
STL spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
STL no-vig %
48.3%
open 48.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
MIL wins
MIL 6 · STL 2 (by 4)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked MIL +1pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Recap · MLB
ilwaukee Brewers went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 6–2.
MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Tonight's box score
MIL · STL
MIL
19-16
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.800 | |
| 2-5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.800 | |
| 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.933 | |
| 0-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.417 | |
| 2-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.750 | |
| 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | |
| 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | |
| 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| Team | 11-36 | 6 | 5 | 1 | — |
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
STL
21-15
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | |
| 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | |
| 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | |
| 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 | |
| 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | |
| 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | |
| 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| Team | 4-30 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | |
| 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 11 | 6 | 6 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
11
Hits
4
6
Runs
2
1
Errors
0
Current series
Series tied 1-1
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIL -1.5
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 1st Inning
A. Vaughn
1BBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS
B. Sproat
SPStarting pitcher
4.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 3 BB
N. Gorman
3BBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS
A. Pallante
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB
How it ended
MIL beat STL 6-2. Vaughn's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
STL vs MIL
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactVaughn · homered to left center (403 feet), Contreras scored and Bauers scored.
Hamilton · grounded out to first.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Period scoring
MIL won 2 · STL won 1
Inn 1
Vaughn 3
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Turang 1
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Burleson 1
Inn 9
Chourio 1
Gorman 1
Game flow · key plays
Turang walked.
MIL 5·STL 0
−3pp
Hamilton grounded out to first.
MIL 4·STL 0
−6pp
Winn lined out to third.
MIL 4·STL 0
−5pp
Gorman walked.
MIL 4·STL 0
+5pp
Vaughn homered to left center (403 feet), Contreras scored and Bauers scored.
MIL 4·STL 0
−23pp
Bauers singled to left, Turang scored, Contreras to second.
MIL 1·STL 0
−10pp
Team stats
MIL
Away
Stat
STL
Home
11
Hits
4
1
Errors
0
6
Runs
2
Betting line
MIL -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIL -115/STL -105
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
117
projections · 57 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.9%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
49.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.8%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.9%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.73 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen