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FINAL+4MIL
MIL

MIL

19-16

6
2
STL

STL

21-15

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
25,772 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

STL no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL52.3%44.3%STL NO-VIG %MODEL 49.0%May 5, 11 PMMay 6, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 6 · STL 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL4000100016
STL0000000112

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

63%Last 7 · 65-38
58%Last 30 · 246-177
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, May 6·Final/Seriestied 1-1/VegasMIL -115

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 6–2.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

MIL · STL

MIL

MIL

19-16

6
PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
S. Frelick
S. Frelick★RF
2-51000.800
J. Chourio
J. Chourio★CF
2-50100.800
B. Turang
B. Turang★2B
1-31000.933
W. Contreras
W. Contreras★C
0-41000.000
J. Bauers
J. Bauers★1B
2-31101.417
A. Vaughn
A. Vaughn★1B
2-41311.750
T. Black
T. Black★3B
0-30000.000
D. Hamilton
D. Hamilton★3B
1-40000.500
J. Ortiz
J. Ortiz★SS
1-41000.500
B. Lockridge
B. LockridgeLF
0-10000.000
Team11-36651—
PlayerIPHERK
B. Sproat
B. Sproat★SP
4.0105
D. Hall
D. HallRP
1.0001
A. Ashby
A. AshbyRP
2.0001
T. Megill
T. MegillRP
1.0212
A. Uribe
A. UribeRP
1.0110
Team9.0429
STL

STL

21-15

2
PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
J. Wetherholt
J. Wetherholt★2B
0-40000.000
I. Herrera
I. Herrera★C
1-40000.500
A. Burleson
A. Burleson★1B
1-40100.500
J. Walker
J. Walker★RF
0-20000.500
N. Gorman
N. Gorman★3B
1-31000.833
M. Winn
M. Winn★SS
0-40000.000
N. Church
N. Church★LF
0-0000—
P. Pages
P. Pages★C
0-30000.000
V. Scott II
V. Scott II★CF
1-31000.667
J. Fermin
J. FerminLF
0-20100.333
C. Prieto
C. Prieto2B
0-10000.000
Team4-30220—
PlayerIPHERK
A. Pallante
A. Pallante★SP
6.0853
J. Shuster
J. ShusterRP
2.0101
M. Svanson
M. SvansonRP
1.0212
Team9.01166

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

4

6

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 4MILMIL3@STLSTL6
May 5MILMIL0@STLSTL0
May 6MILMIL6@STLSTL2today

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 4MILMIL3@STLSTL6
May 5MILMIL0@STLSTL0
May 6MILMIL6@STLSTL2today
May 25STLSTL@MILMILupcoming
May 26STLSTL@MILMILupcoming
May 27STLSTL@MILMILupcoming
Jul 6MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 7MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 7MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 8MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 9MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Sep 25STLSTL@MILMILupcoming
Sep 26STLSTL@MILMILupcoming
Sep 27STLSTL@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL-11553%
STLSTL-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 1st Inning

MILMIL
A. Vaughn

A. Vaughn

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Sproat

B. Sproat

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

STLSTL
N. Gorman

N. Gorman

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

A. Pallante

A. Pallante

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat STL 6-2. Vaughn's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5T6T7T8T9
MIL6
STL2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 1st Inning · 4-0
+23pp→ 81% WP

Vaughn · homered to left center (403 feet), Contreras scored and Bauers scored.

MILTop 5th Inning · 4-0
+6pp→ 90% WP

Hamilton · grounded out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL4000100016
STL0000000112

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · STL won 1

4
0

Inn 1

Vaughn 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Turang 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Burleson 1

1
1

Inn 9

Chourio 1

Gorman 1

MIL
STL

Game flow · key plays

  1. T5

    Turang walked.

    MIL 5·STL 0

    −3pp

  2. T5

    Hamilton grounded out to first.

    MIL 4·STL 0

    −6pp

  3. B4

    Winn lined out to third.

    MIL 4·STL 0

    −5pp

  4. B4

    Gorman walked.

    MIL 4·STL 0

    +5pp

  5. T1

    Vaughn homered to left center (403 feet), Contreras scored and Bauers scored.

    MIL 4·STL 0

    −23pp

  6. T1

    Bauers singled to left, Turang scored, Contreras to second.

    MIL 1·STL 0

    −10pp

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

STL

Home

11

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

6

Runs

2

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIL -115/STL -105

DraftKings · via ESPN
Live · 9
  • MLBBot 4
    MIN 1@WSH 1
    +3.1pphigh
  • MLBTop 1
    CIN 0@CHC 0
    -6.0ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    CLE 0@KC 0
    -5.8ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 4
    ATH 1@PHI 0
    -34.0ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 4
    BAL 4@MIA 3
    -34.2ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    TEX 1@NYY 0
    -42.7ppmedium
  • MLBTop 4
    BOS 2@DET 0
    -46.1pplow
  • NBA1:56 - 1st
    PHI 27@NY 24
    -11.2pphigh
  • NHL0:43 - 1st
    MTL 0@BUF 2

Player projections

STL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    8.4± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    5.8± 5.2low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    4.3± 3.3low

Hits

  • Tyler BlackMIL
    1.3± 1.7low
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.6high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • JJ WetherholtSTL
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Nathan ChurchSTL
    2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Tyler BlackMIL
    1.0± 1.9low
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 1.2high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.0± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    3.3± 3.0low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    3.0± 3.4low
  • Kyle LeahySTL
    2.7± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.9%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    49.0%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.8%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.9%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen