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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3WSH
NYM

NYM

21-27

6
9
WSH

WSH

24-25

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
22,754 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

WSH no-vig %

42.7%

open 40.7% · +2.0

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL46.7%36.7%WSH NO-VIG %May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

NYM 6 · WSH 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM3200001006
WSH043200009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+41.5pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

WSH

★ best
+650DraftKings

edge +41.5pp · implied 12.4%

BookNYMWSHBest edge
DraftKings-1700+650★+41.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.04

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasNYM -134

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off New York Mets, 9–6.

WSH +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Bo Bichette

Bo Bichette

3B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM21-27
6
9
WSH24-25
NYM21-27·WSH24-25
NYM

NYM

21-27

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
3-55230001
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-44224200
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-44221101
SPRINT25.513
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.513
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-33011001
SPRINT28.175
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-33000001
N. MorabitoN. Morabito★LF
0-33000002
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-44000001
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-44000001
A.J. EwingA.J. EwingCF
0-11000001
Team10-35356106309
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
5.2896252
D. DuarteD. DuarteRP
2.1100010
Team8.0996262
WSH

WSH

24-25

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
3-55234100
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-55000002
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
1-44211101
SPRINT27.662
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-22100011
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT29.395
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-44010000
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-33111001
SPRINT26.838
D. MillasD. Millas★C
0-22100010
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
2-44120001
SPRINT29.899
Team9-3333996226
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. GriffinF. Griffin★SP
5.0855052
B. LordB. LordRP
3.0211031
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
1.0000010
Team9.01066093

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • N. McLean
    100 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      26%·94.6 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·92.5 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
  • D. Duarte
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      39%·90.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      21%·89.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·96.3 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • F. Griffin
    97 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      29%·88.0 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      25%·79.6 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      22%·92.0 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      8%·78.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      4%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      1%·81.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Lord
    40 pitches·43% CSW
    • ST
      43%·84.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      15%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      40%·82.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      20%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·90.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

6

Runs

9

2

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 18NYMNYM16@WSHWSH7
May 19NYMNYM6@WSHWSH9today
May 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH8
May 21NYMNYM2@WSHWSH1

Season series

WSH leads series 3-2

Apr 28WSHWSH0@NYMNYM8
Apr 29WSHWSH14@NYMNYM2
Apr 30WSHWSH5@NYMNYM4
May 18NYMNYM16@WSHWSH7
May 19NYMNYM6@WSHWSH9today
May 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH8
May 21NYMNYM2@WSHWSH1
Aug 14WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 15WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 16WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 25NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 26NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 27NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

NYMNYM-13457%
WSHWSH+11147%

↘5· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 23pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

NYMNYM
B. Bichette

B. Bichette

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

F. Griffin

F. Griffin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 8 H

How it ended

WSH beat NYM 9-6. Wood's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

WSH vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 2nd Inning · 5-4
+23pp→ 34% WP

Wood · homered to left center (379 feet), Vivas scored, Millas scored and Nuñez scored.

WSHBottom 3rd Inning · 5-5
+15pp→ 50% WP

Tena · homered to left center (389 feet).

WSHBottom 4th Inning · 5-9
+15pp→ 91% WP

Abrams · grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wood scored on error by catcher Torrens and Tena scored on error, Abrams second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM3200001006
WSH04320000—9

Period scoring

NYM won 2 · WSH won 3

3
0

Inn 1

Bichette 2

2
4

Inn 2

Bichette 2

Wood 4

0
3

Inn 3

Tena 1

0
2

Inn 4

Abrams 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Soto 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYM
WSH

Play-by-play · 546 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  2. T9

    Benge struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  8. T9

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Carson Benge

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  9. T9

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  10. T9

    Torrens grounded out to catcher.

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

    +0.8pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  13. T9

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Luis Torrens

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  14. T9

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  15. T9

    Baty grounded out to second.

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

    +2pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  19. T9

    Richard Lovelady pitches to Brett Baty

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  20. T9

    Lovelady relieved Lord

    ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  21. T9

    Crews in right field.

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  22. T9

    Young in center field.

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  25. B8

    · ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  26. B8

    García Jr. struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 6·WSH 9

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

6

Runs

9

10

Hits

9

2

Errors

0

20

TB

16

3

HR

2

0

BB

2

9

K

6

8

LOB

12

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 8.5·NYM -134/WSH +111

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

WSH vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.7± 3.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.6± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.9± 1.2high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    54.8%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.8%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.5%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 16, 26sim 98
    13
    20(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 97
    214
    20(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 95
    31
    14(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 95
    19
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 94
    62
    21(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 94
    1811
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483