MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYM

MIA

26-32

NYM

24-33

Citi Field · Queens, New York

39,386 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

NYM no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
51.8%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.3%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.2%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+50.6pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

MIA

no live price

NYM

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +50.6pp · implied 0.0%

Book	MIA	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	-105	—★	+50.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.2± 2.8low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.5± 3.2low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 1.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 2.0high
Carson BengeNYM
2.1± 3.6high
Jared YoungNYM
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.6± 1.1high
Joe MackMIA
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.6low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

NYM

.707

OPS

◀

.715

.662

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.292

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

4.11

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.88

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

MIA 7 · NYM 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
MIA	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	2	0	0	7
NYM	4	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
X. Edwards2B	.319	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
L. HicksC	.264	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
O. LopezSS	.341	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
K. StowersLF	.227	5	1	3	1	0	0	2
J. MarseeCF	.199	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.212	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
O. CaissieRF	.232	5	2	2	2	1	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.267	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MackC	.213	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		41	7	13	7	1	2	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.319

.264

.341

.227

.199

.212

.232

.267

.213

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. MeyerSP	6.0	6	6	5	3	6	106
C. GibsonRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	11
C. FaucherRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
A. BenderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
M. PetersenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
P. FairbanksRP	0.1	1	2	1	0	0	4
Team	9.1	8	9	7	4	9	146

Player

M. MeyerSP

6.0

106

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

0.1

Team

9.1

146

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. BengeRF	.242	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. Bichette3B	.225	4	2	1	0	0	1	0
J. SotoLF	.299	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. Young1B	.320	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
A.J. EwingCF	.268	4	1	2	2	0	0	1
M. Vientos1B	.224	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
B. Baty3B	.237	4	0	1	2	0	0	2
M. Semien2B	.214	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. TorrensC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. BrujanSS	.250	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. MelendezDH	.213	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
Team		34	9	8	8	2	4	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
F. PeraltaSP	4.2	8	4	4	1	5	94
A.J. MinterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	12
B. RaleyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
T. MyersRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	10
L. WeaverRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	14
A. WarrenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	10.0	13	7	7	2	9	156

Team

MIA

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.