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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+10WSH
BAL

BAL

20-26

3
13
WSH

WSH

23-23

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
40,559 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

WSH no-vig %

49.6%

open 50.0% · -0.4

+2.0-0.5WSH SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.0TOTAL54.0%45.6%WSH NO-VIG %MODEL 53.2%May 15, 6 PMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

BAL 3 · WSH 13 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000003003
WSH0310007213

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.9pp

best edge · BAL · DraftKings

BAL

★ best
+425DraftKings

edge +28.9pp · implied 17.9%

WSH

no live price

BookBALWSHBest edge
DraftKings+425★-690+28.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -113

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off Baltimore Orioles, 13–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

WSH +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total cleared the 10.0 OVER by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Samuel Basallo

Samuel Basallo

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Brady House

Brady House

3B

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL20-26
3
13
WSH23-23
BAL20-26·WSH23-23
BAL

BAL

20-26

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-33000011
T. WardT. Ward★LF
2-55021002
SPRINT27.457
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-44000001
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-44111102
SPRINT25.310
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-44111101
SPRINT27.662
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
2-44120002
SPRINT2993
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33010011
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44010001
M. HandleyM. HandleyC
0-11000001
Team10-363631032212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
5.0644141
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
1.0100000
K. AkinK. AkinRP
0.1366200
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
0.2111001
J. WalkerJ. WalkerRP
1.0222111
Team8.0131313453
WSH

WSH

23-23

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-33210010
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-33010000
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-33000001
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
3-55231000
SPRINT28.483
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-55111001
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-33100021
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
3-55235100
SPRINT25.411
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
0-22000001
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
2-44123101
SPRINT29.496
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-11100010
B. HouseB. House3B
2-22223100
SPRINT2872
J. WiemerJ. WiemerRF
0-22100000
Team13-3838131313345
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
6.1833082
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.2100100
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0100020
P. SchultzP. SchultzRP
1.0000120
Team9.010332122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • C. Bassitt
    82 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      32%·91.6 mph·23% whiff
    • CU
      27%·70.5 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      27%·89.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      6%·78.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·72.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      2%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      1%·90.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Walker
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      53%·83.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      27%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.8 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Akin
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      59%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      41%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Enns
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      83%·93.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      11%·83.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·77.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      58%·90.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.1 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    94 pitches·31% CSW
    • KC
      34%·86.1 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.7 mph·21% whiff
    • SI
      16%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • ST
      37%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      32%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·90.8 mph·— whiff
  • P. Schultz
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      41%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      36%·86.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      29%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

13

3

Runs

13

0

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 15BALBAL2@WSHWSH3
May 16BALBAL3@WSHWSH13today
May 17BALBAL7@WSHWSH3

Season series

WSH leads series 2-0

May 15BALBAL2@WSHWSH3
May 16BALBAL3@WSHWSH13today
May 17BALBAL7@WSHWSH3
Jun 26WSHWSH@BALBALupcoming
Jun 27WSHWSH@BALBALupcoming
Jun 28WSHWSH@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

BALBAL-11353%
WSHWSH-10752%

↗2· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

10.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

BALBAL
S. Basallo

S. Basallo

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

WSHWSH
B. House

B. House

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 8 H

How it ended

WSH beat BAL 13-3. Ruiz's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

WSH vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+16pp→ 65% WP

Abrams · doubled to right.

WSHBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
+22pp→ 84% WP

Ruiz · homered to right (366 feet), Abrams scored and Nuñez scored.

BALTop 7th Inning · 3-4
+13pp→ 30% WP

Ward · singled to left, Taveras scored, Henderson to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000003003
WSH03100072—13

Period scoring

BAL won 0 · WSH won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Ruiz 3

0
1

Inn 3

Abrams 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
7

Inn 7

Basallo 1

Young 3

0
2

Inn 8

House 2

0

Inn 9

BAL
WSH

Play-by-play · 602 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  2. T9

    Ward flied out to left.

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  5. T9

    Paxton Schultz pitches to Taylor Ward

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  6. T9

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  7. T9

    Handley struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  12. T9

    Paxton Schultz pitches to Maverick Handley

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  13. T9

    Handley hit for Henderson

    ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  14. T9

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  15. T9

    Jeremiah Jackson challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Jeremiah Jackson called out on strikes.

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  20. T9

    Paxton Schultz pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  21. T9

    ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  22. T9BB

    Coby Mayo challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Coby Mayo walks.

    ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  23. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

  30. T9

    Paxton Schultz pitches to Coby Mayo

    ·

    BAL 3·WSH 13

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

3

Runs

13

10

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

17

TB

27

2

HR

3

2

BB

4

12

K

5

16

LOB

21

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 10·BAL -113/WSH -107

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-107

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

49.4%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 98
    216
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 96
    19
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 96
    1811
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 95
    214
    20(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 94
    64
    21(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 94
    62
    21(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

WSH vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • James WoodWSH
    2.6± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.9± 1.2high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    54.3%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.1%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.6%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175