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TUE, 6:40 PM EDTModelMIA56%
BAL

BAL

15-20

VS
MIA

MIA

16-19

Place your bet

-138Bet MIA ML↗-138Bet MIA ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+ · we may earn a referral fee.

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.50

C. Bassitt

2-2 · 5.46 ERA

vs

S. Alcantara

3-2 · 3.04 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Chris Bassitt

Chris Bassitt

SP · #40

2-2

W-L

5.46

ERA

1.86

WHIP

17

K

28.0

IP

Last 3 starts

vsHOUW(2-2)6.2 IP1 ER7 K
@KCW(1-2)5.1 IP5 ER3 K
@CLE-5.0 IP0 ER2 K

Home starter

Sandy Alcantara

Sandy Alcantara

SP · #22

3-2

W-L

3.04

ERA

1.16

WHIP

31

K

47.1

IP

Last 3 starts

@LAD-6.0 IP2 ER4 K
@SFW(3-2)6.0 IP3 ER4 K
vsMILL(2-2)5.0 IP2 ER1 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+115 / -138

Model edge

Win prob44% / 56%
LeanHome · 6pp
ConfidenceLean

Head to head

No prior meetings logged this season yet.

Place a bet

Take MIA on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-138Bet MIA ML↗-138Bet MIA ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗
O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

BAL

  1. 1.G. HendersonSS
  2. 2.T. WardLF
  3. 3.D. BeaversDH
  4. 4.P. Alonso1B
  5. 5.S. BasalloC
  6. 6.L. TaverasCF
  7. 7.C. CowserRF
  8. 8.C. Mayo3B
  9. 9.B. Alexander2B

MIA

  1. 1.X. Edwards2B
  2. 2.L. Hicks1B
  3. 3.O. LopezSS
  4. 4.K. StowersLF
  5. 5.J. MarseeCF
  6. 6.C. NorbyDH
  7. 7.J. MackC
  8. 8.O. CaissieRF
  9. 9.G. Pauley3B

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

55.1%

open 52.3% · +2.8

+2.0-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.1%48.3%MIA NO-VIG %MODEL 56.0%May 5, 12 AMMay 5, 9 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketAligned
DraftKings · snapped just now
No edgemodel and market agree on MIAMIA
BALBALWin prob axisMIAMIA
Market 55%
Model 56%
0%50%100%
ModelMIA 56%Pre-game prob
MarketMIA 55%No-vig · 4.5% hold
Edge—Within noise
BALBAL +115/MIAMIA -138Pass · no value
The One modelLean
Tue, May 5
BAL

BAL

Orioles

15-20

vs56%MIA

MIA★

Marlins

16-19

MIA
BAL 44%win prob56% MIA
MIA 1488 · BAL 1471Box score→

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 59-45
57%Last 30 · 232-178
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.84

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-121

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

52.3%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market steamed in our direction

MLB·Tue, May 5·5/5 - 6:40 PM EDT/VegasMIA -138

Preview · MLB

Baltimore Orioles visit Miami Marlins Tuesday at 5/5 - 6:40 PM EDT.

Vegas opened MIA as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 8.5. MIA's moneyline implies a 58% break-even, BAL the inverse. MIA is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the MIA side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 8.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

BAL · MIA

BAL

BAL

15-20

0
PlayerH-ABRBIHROPS
G. Henderson
G. Henderson★SS
30-1441990.604
T. Ward
T. Ward★LF
36-1251210.600
D. Beavers
D. Beavers★RF
19-871020.506
P. Alonso
P. Alonso★1B
28-1301560.569
S. Basallo
S. Basallo★C
22-941050.628
L. Taveras
L. Taveras★CF
21-751820.640
C. Cowser
C. Cowser★RF
12-62400.387
C. Mayo
C. Mayo★3B
14-851230.435
B. Alexander
B. Alexander★3B
17-77200.442
Team---------—
PlayerIPHERK
C. Bassitt
C. Bassitt★SP
--.--------
Team--.--------
MIA

MIA

16-19

0
PlayerH-ABRBIHROPS
X. Edwards
X. Edwards★2B
43-1291120.713
L. Hicks
L. Hicks★C
30-1012970.802
O. Lopez
O. Lopez★SS
46-1361530.743
K. Stowers
K. Stowers★LF
12-50100.480
J. Marsee
J. Marsee★CF
24-130810.392
C. Norby
C. Norby★1B
24-1021130.559
J. Mack
J. Mack★C
0-3000.000
O. Caissie
O. Caissie★RF
19-941520.468
G. Pauley
G. Pauley★3B
13-72910.403
Team---------—
PlayerIPHERK
S. Alcantara
S. Alcantara★SP
--.--------
Team--.--------

Season series

May 5BALBAL@MIAMIAtoday
May 6BALBAL@MIAMIAupcoming
May 7BALBAL@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+11547%
MIAMIA-13858%

↘10· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
BALBALSP
C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

#40 · 2-2

ERA

5.46

K

17

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/30vsHOUHOU6.2 IP · 1 ER · 7 KW(2-2)
4/22@KCKC5.1 IP · 5 ER · 3 KW(1-2)
4/17@CLECLE5.0 IP · 0 ER · 2 K-
VS
MIAMIASP
S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

#22 · 3-2

ERA

3.04

K

31

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/29@LADLAD6.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-
4/25@SFSF6.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 KW(3-2)
4/18vsMILMIL5.0 IP · 2 ER · 1 KL(2-2)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
BALBAL4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    G. Henderson

    SS

    L
  2. 2

    T. Ward

    LF

    R
  3. 3

    D. Beavers

    DH

    L
  4. 4

    P. Alonso

    1B

    R
  5. 5

    S. Basallo

    C

    L
  6. 6

    L. Taveras

    CF

    B
  7. 7

    C. Cowser

    RF

    L
  8. 8

    C. Mayo

    3B

    R
  9. 9

    B. Alexander

    2B

    R
MIAMIA6L · 2R · 1S
  1. 1

    X. Edwards

    2B

    B
  2. 2

    L. Hicks

    1B

    L
  3. 3

    O. Lopez

    SS

    R
  4. 4

    K. Stowers

    LF

    L
  5. 5

    J. Marsee

    CF

    L
  6. 6

    C. Norby

    DH

    R
  7. 7

    J. Mack

    C

    L
  8. 8

    O. Caissie

    RF

    L
  9. 9

    G. Pauley

    3B

    L

Scouting report

BAL @ MIA

5/5 - 6:40 PM EDT
StorylineBAL dropped 5 straight.

Rest going in

BALB2B

0 days

last game May 4

MIAB2B

0 days

last game May 4

Model edge vs market

Lean only
Spread

Market

MIA -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

8.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

MIA -138

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

BALmetricMIA

15-20

Record

16-19

#11

Conf rank

#10

-1.2

Pt diff

0.0

L5

Streak

L2

3-7

Last 10

4-6

Bullpen used yesterday

BAL

2.3 bullpen IP

  • Y. Cano0.2 IP9 P
  • K. Akin0.2 IP7 P
  • L. Trivino0.2 IP31 P
  • W. Wilson0.1 IP2 P

L 12-1 · May 4

MIA

3.7 bullpen IP · heavy

  • J. King0.2 IP10 P
  • C. Faucher1.0 IP15 P
  • L. Bachar2.0 IP29 P

L 1-0 · May 4

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

270

Hits

291

23

Errors

24

155

Runs

146

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8.5·BAL +115/MIA -138

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIA vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    5.7± 1.9low
  • Eury PerezMIA
    5.6± 2.7low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.0± 2.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.6± 1.1high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Esteury RuizMIA
    2.2± 3.1low
  • Otto LopezMIA
    2.0± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.2± 2.1high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Liam HicksMIA
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Brandon YoungBAL
    3.3± 4.7low
  • Shane BazBAL
    3.1± 2.1low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.7%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    56.0%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.9%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.1%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

1.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Scouting report · pre-game

MIA vs BAL.

MIA is 4-6 recently; BAL is 2-8.

56.0%

model · MIA win prob

Recent form

  • MIA4–6-0.4
  • BAL2–8-4.4

Situational

  • MIA1d restB2B
  • BAL1d restB2B
  • +0.0d differential

Rest is even. MIA has 0 straight road games; BAL has 4.

Model angle

No actionable edge surfaced.

Players to watch

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    2.2total bases · ±3.0

    Adley Rutschman · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 2.

  • Otto LopezMIA
    2.0total bases · ±1.3

    Otto Lopez · 2 TB · last-10 2 vs season 2.

  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    1.9total bases · ±2.6

    Samuel Basallo · 1.9 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 1.5.

Line move

open -121→-136toward MIA

The market has moved 2.9pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes