Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at MIA?

The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — May 5, 2026

FINAL+2BAL

BAL

16-20

MIA

16-20

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

6,600 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

55.1%

open 52.3% · +2.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
54.2%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.6%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.4%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.84

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-121

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

52.3%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at MIA?: The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MIA vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
6.1± 3.6medium
Shane BazBAL
5.2± 2.9medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
4.9± 1.7medium

Hits

Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.1± 1.2high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Gunnar HendersonBAL
2.2± 2.3high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.5high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.8± 3.4high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.8± 1.1high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.5high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.3± 2.9low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.2± 3.1medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

MIA

.726

OPS

◀

.718

.708

.321

OBP

.319

.322

4.69

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

4.41

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.07

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 9 · MIA 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	3	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	2	9
MIA	1	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.208	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. WardLF	.289	3	3	1	0	0	2	1
D. BeaversRF	.211	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
P. Alonso1B	.226	3	4	2	2	0	2	1
S. BasalloC	.255	4	1	3	4	0	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.275	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. CowserRF	.179	5	0	0	1	0	0	3
C. Mayo3B	.157	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. O'NeillRF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RutschmanC	.299	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Jackson2B	.259	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	9	10	9	0	5	10

Player

.208

.289

.211

.226

.255

.275

.179

.157

.222

.200

.299

.259

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BassittSP	4.0	6	4	4	3	3	76
K. AkinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
A. NunezRP	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	20
G. WolframRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
A. KittredgeRP	0.2	1	1	0	1	1	20
R. GarciaRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	19
Team	9.0	9	7	6	5	10	151

Player

4.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

0.2

1.1

Team

9.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.333	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
L. HicksC	.321	5	1	4	3	1	0	1
O. LopezSS	.333	5	1	1	1	1	0	0
K. StowersLF	.222	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. MarseeCF	.178	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. Norby1B	.238	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. MackC	.286	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
O. CaissieRF	.198	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
G. Pauley3B	.173	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. RuizRF	.267	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.304	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	7	9	5	2	5	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AlcantaraSP	4.1	8	7	7	3	5	106
A. BenderRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
M. PetersenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
J. EknessRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
W. KempnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
A. NardiRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	0	22
Team	9.0	10	9	9	5	10	174

Team

BAL

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIA vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIA vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.