MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5DET

DET

25-38

36-23

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

12,585 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

TB no-vig %

57.2%

open 58.3% · -1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
64.6%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.9%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.09

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.9pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

DET

no live price

★ best

-137DraftKings

edge +12.9pp · implied 54.2%

Book	DET	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	+105	-137★	+12.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Shane McClanahanTB
5.2± 2.1low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.4high
Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.3high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.6± 3.4high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.8± 1.9high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.6high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Steven MatzTB
2.5± 2.5low
Keider MonteroDET
2.3± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

.710

OPS

.718

▶

.720

.316

OBP

.320

▶

.336

4.08

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

3.90

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.96

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 7 · TB 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	1	7
TB	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. Torres2B	.272	5	3	3	0	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.288	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.241	4	1	2	4	1	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.239	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. GreeneLF	.311	4	0	2	0	0	1	1
S. Torkelson1B	.214	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.268	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. VierlingCF	.219	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. RogersC	.167	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
Z. ShortSS	.172	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	7	13	7	2	1	4

Player

.272

.288

.241

.239

.311

.214

.268

.219

.167

.172

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MeltonSP	8.0	4	2	2	2	5	94
D. AndersonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	4	2	2	2	6	106

Player

T. MeltonSP

8.0

D. AndersonRP

1.0

Team

9.0

106

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.278	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.275	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
Y. DiazDH	.313	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. Palacios2B	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.268	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.186	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
N. FortesC	.252	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.160	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	2	4	2	1	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	4.0	9	6	6	1	1	58
M. EnglertRP	5.0	4	1	1	0	3	82
Team	9.0	13	7	7	1	4	140

Team

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TB vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TB vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.