Starter edge
4.00 ERA
Reid Detmers vs Merrill Kelly - 5.46 ERA
Detmers owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving LAA cleaner opening script tonight.
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Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks
LAA
LAA
29-44
PregameTue, 9:40 PM EDT
ARI
ARI
37-35
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 9.46
R. Detmers
2-5 · 4.00 ERA
vs
M. Kelly
5-5 · 5.46 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketChase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Line movement
200 snapshots
ARI spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
ARI no-vig %
50.5%
open 51.1% · -0.5
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Reid Detmers
SP · #48
2-5
W-L
4.00
ERA
1.05
WHIP
97
K
81.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsHOU-7.0 IP1 ER9 K
@LAD-6.0 IP0 ER6 K
@TBW(2-5)5.0 IP3 ER7 K
Home starter
Merrill Kelly
SP · #29
5-5
W-L
5.46
ERA
1.45
WHIP
38
K
64.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@MIAL(5-5)6.0 IP2 ER1 K
vsWSHL(5-4)5.0 IP7 ER4 K
@SEA-5.1 IP2 ER2 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money-106 / -114
Model edge
Win prob38% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesARI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take ARI on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
LAA
- 1.Z. NetoSS
- 2.M. TroutCF
- 3.N. Schanuel1B
- 4.J. AdellRF
- 5.N. Madrigal2B
- 6.W. MecklerLF
- 7.D. Guzman3B
- 8.L. O'HoppeC
- 9.D. WaltonDH
ARI
- 1.K. Marte2B
- 2.G. PerdomoSS
- 3.C. CarrollRF
- 4.L. Gurriel Jr.LF
- 5.N. Arenado3B
- 6.I. Vargas1B
- 7.J. LawlarCF
- 8.A. Del CastilloC
- 9.L. GrooverDH
Scouting report · pre-game
ARI vs LAA.
ARI is 4-6 recently; LAA is 5-5.
61.7%
model · ARI win prob
Recent form
- ARI4–6-2.3
- LAA5–5+1.2
Situational
- ARI1d restB2B
- LAA1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ARI has 0 straight road games; LAA has 1.
Model angle
+10.8ppon ARI
ARI's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way. Weather and park are neutral for the total environment.
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▲Venue split+0.5pp
- ▲Head to head+0.2pp
Players to watch
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.9total bases · ±1.9
Gabriel Moreno · 1.9 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 1.5.
- Jo AdellLAA1.9total bases · ±2.4
Jo Adell · 1.9 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.6.
- Corbin CarrollARI1.8total bases · ±2.0
Corbin Carroll · 1.8 TB · last-10 1.6 vs season 2.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
ARI is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-15LAA @ ARI3–4
Line move
open -115→-112toward LAA
The market has moved 0.7pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.7%
ensemble · ARI favored
Elo Static
60.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.6%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.5%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.69 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs LAA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 71 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Reid DetmersLAA7.0± 4.0low
- Jose SorianoLAA5.6± 1.9medium
- Michael SorokaARI5.3± 2.8low
Hits
- Jo AdellLAA1.4± 1.5high
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.0± 0.8high
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.9± 1.9high
- Jo AdellLAA1.9± 2.4high
- Corbin CarrollARI1.8± 2.0high
RBIs
- Denzer GuzmanLAA0.8± 1.6low
- Jose SiriLAA0.8± 1.3high
- Trey ManciniLAA0.8± 1.1low
Earned runs
- Merrill KellyARI3.6± 3.5low
- Zac GallenARI3.3± 1.9medium
- Ryne NelsonARI3.0± 2.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
ARI
.708
OPS
◀
.717
.692
.318
OBP
◀
.319
.307
4.47
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.22
4.61
Team ERA
4.18
▶4.17
1.43
WHIP
1.31
▶1.27
8.9
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.2
The One modelEdge
Tue, Jun 16LAA
Angels
31-48
vs61.7%ARI
ARI★
Diamondbacks
39-40
LAA 38.3%win prob61.7% ARI
ARI 1489 · LAA 1440Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
