Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 16, 2026

FINAL+1PIT

PIT

37-37

ATH

36-37

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

8,615 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

ATH no-vig %

54.1%

open 53.2% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
51.5%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.5%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.8%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.89

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+104

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+35.1pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PIT

★ best

+511DraftKings

edge +35.1pp · implied 15.4%

ATH

no live price

Book	PIT	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	+511★	-910	+35.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATH vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.8medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.5± 2.4medium
Bubba ChandlerPIT
5.0± 3.5low

Hits

Nick KurtzATH
1.3± 0.8high
Zack GelofATH
1.3± 0.7high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

Nick KurtzATH
3.0± 3.2high
Zack GelofATH
2.7± 1.9high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.5± 3.2high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 1.6high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.6± 2.5medium
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 1.8medium
Jared JonesPIT
3.0± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

ATH

.745

OPS

.718

.748

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.329

5.05

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.59

4.22

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.91

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.45

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 6 · ATH 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	1	6
ATH	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Horwitz1B	.277	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
B. Lowe2B	.239	5	1	1	1	1	0	3
B. ReynoldsLF	.280	5	3	4	3	2	0	0
R. O'HearnRF	.282	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
N. Gonzales3B	.291	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
E. RodriguezC	.267	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
T. CallihanLF	.323	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
J. MangumLF	.299	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.221	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. CookRF	.190	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	6	12	6	3	3	9

Player

.277

.239

.280

.282

.291

.267

.323

.299

.221

.190

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	5.1	5	5	4	4	7	96
E. SiskRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
Y. RamirezRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	5
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	21
G. SotoRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	20
Team	9.0	8	5	4	6	13	157

Player

5.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

157

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.292	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
S. LangeliersC	.279	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. SoderstromLF	.238	2	1	0	0	0	3	1
J. WilsonSS	.282	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
C. CortesRF	.289	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. Gelof3B	.286	3	2	3	2	1	1	0
L. ButlerRF	.190	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
H. BolteCF	.313	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. McNeil2B	.236	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ThomasRF	.237	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.310	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		34	5	8	3	1	6	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PerkinsRP	5.0	6	3	3	2	6	85
J. SternerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	23
H. HarrisRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	25
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	9
E. AlvaradoRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16
Team	9.0	12	6	6	3	9	158

Team

PIT

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATH vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.