MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 4TH+4LAD

18-24

LAD

24-18

Live · model leanBot 4thPolls every 30s

74.0%

LAD wins · current

Pre-game: 60.2% LAD

SF 0 · 4 LAD

LAD +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsLAD leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingLADBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 84% WP
Espinal · homered to left center (383 feet).

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 3.73

R. Ray

3-4 · 2.76 ERA

S. Ohtani

2-2 · 0.97 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

LAD no-vig %

68.0%

open 68.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
60.2%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.4%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.5%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+38.8ppvs pre-game · LAD favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like SF.

SF's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+8.1

pp edge · SF

0.00

CLV pp

Pass

40.7%

±6.4pp band

Pass — model probability is at or below the coin flip line.

Edge

+9.1pp

+0.9pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

3.02

+7.6pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 8.1pp · SF over LAD

▲
Model confidence90% conf
SF clears the model's lock threshold.
+4.3pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
SF is 4-1 over its last 5; LAD is 1-4.
+3.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
SF has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+1.7pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
SF is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.4pp

Open price

+199

Close price

+199

Open no-vig

32.0%

Close no-vig

32.0%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.2pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

★ best

+218DraftKings

edge +10.2pp · implied 29.6%

LAD

no live price

Book	SF	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+218★	-298	+10.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

LAD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 53 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shohei OhtaniLAD
7.0± 3.8low
Landen RouppSF
6.4± 1.6low
Emmet SheehanLAD
6.1± 3.5low

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.3± 0.9high
Andy PagesLAD
1.2± 1.1high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Andy PagesLAD
2.3± 3.7high
Eric HaaseSF
2.3± 3.9low
Rafael DeversSF
2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

Andy PagesLAD
0.9± 1.9high
Mookie BettsLAD
0.7± 1.4low
Eric HaaseSF
0.7± 1.1low

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.4± 3.1low
Roki SasakiLAD
3.1± 2.1low
Tyler MahleSF
3.0± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

Wed, May 13

Giants

20-24

vs60.2%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

24-21

SF 39.8%win prob60.2% LAD

LAD 1536 · SF 1488Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Lee★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
L. Arraez★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT26.632
H. Ramos★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT27.251
R. Devers★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.716
B. Eldridge★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. Adames★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Chapman★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Gilbert★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Rodríguez★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	1-13	13	0	1	0	0	2	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-2

0-1

0-1

1-2

0-2

0-2

0-1

0-1

0-1

Team

1-13

	Pitching
R. Ray★SP	3.1	7	4	4	0	2	2
Team	3.1	7	4	4	0	2	2

Pitching

Player

R. Ray★SP

3.1

Team

3.1

	Batting
M. Betts★SS	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
W. Smith★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Freeman★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT24.74
A. Pages★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Tucker★RF	2-2	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.123
T. Hernández★LF	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.381
M. Rojas★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Call★LF	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
S. Espinal★2B	1-1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT26.632
Team	7-16	16	4	7	4	2	0	2

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

M. Betts★SS

1-2