• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1TB
SF

SF

13-21

1
2
TB

TB

21-12

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
20,108 attended

Line movement

80 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

TB no-vig %

53.7%

open 52.6% · +1.1

+2.0-2.0TB SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL58.2%48.2%TB NO-VIG %May 2, 5 PMMay 30, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

SF 1 · TB 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
SF10000000001
TB00000001012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 19, 26sim 98
    211
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 97
    260
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    182
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 95
    72
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 95
    43
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    202
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.14

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-128

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

53.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, May 3·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0/VegasTB -128

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off San Francisco Giants, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

SF +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Hunter Feduccia

Hunter Feduccia

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
SF13-21
1
2
TB21-12
SF13-21·TB21-12
SF

SF

13-21

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-33110012
SPRINT25.716
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-44021001
SPRINT2872
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-44000000
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44000000
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT27.457
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-33000010
J. EncarnacionJ. Encarnacion★RF
0-22000000
E. HaaseE. Haase★C
1-44010001
D. GilbertD. GilbertCF
0-22000000
Team6-3434161025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MahleT. Mahle★SP
5.1400150
M. GageM. GageRP
0.2000110
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0100000
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
1.0111100
C. KilianC. KilianRP
1.0210100
Team9.0821460
TB

TB

21-12

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-55100002
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-22110030
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
4-55041000
SPRINT25.29
R. ViladeR. Vilade★RF
0-33001002
SPRINT28.483
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
0-22000001
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT28.381
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-44000000
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-33010000
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
0-44000000
J. DeLucaJ. DeLucaRF
0-11000001
H. FeducciaH. FeducciaC
1-11010000
Team8-3333282046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. MatzS. Matz★SP
6.0411210
H. BiggeH. BiggeRP
2.0200030
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000010
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
1.0000000
Team10.0611250

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • T. Mahle
    92 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.3 mph·23% whiff
    • FS
      20%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.1 mph·17% whiff
  • M. Gage
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·83.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      7%·92.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Kilian
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      80%·96.9 mph·14% whiff
    • KC
      13%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Walker
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      57%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Winn
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      22%·89.6 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • S. Matz
    89 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      56%·93.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      22%·83.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      17%·82.0 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      4%·78.1 mph·50% whiff
  • H. Bigge
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      46%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      4%·88.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • CH
      55%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      45%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      13%·82.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

1

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

May 1SFSF0@TBTB3
May 2SFSF1@TBTB5
May 3SFSF1@TBTB2today

Season series

TB wins series 3-0

May 1SFSF0@TBTB3
May 2SFSF1@TBTB5
May 3SFSF1@TBTB2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+10748%
TBTB-12856%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 9th Inning

SFSF
C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

T. Mahle

T. Mahle

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

TBTB
H. Feduccia

H. Feduccia

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Matz

S. Matz

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TB beat SF 2-1. Arraez's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 8th Inning · 1-0
+22pp→ 61% WP

Aranda · singled to center, Caminero to third.

SFTop 9th Inning · 1-1
+22pp→ 46% WP

Arraez · grounded out to first.

TBBottom 10th Inning · 1-2
+19pp→ 100% WP

Aranda · singled to right, Simpson scored, Caminero to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
SF10000000001
TB00000001012

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

TB

Home

1

Runs

2

6

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

10

TB

8

0

HR

0

2

BB

4

5

K

6

14

LOB

16

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8·SF +107/TB -128

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 80 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

-0.5 since open

Win probability

TB vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Period scoring

SF won 1 · TB won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Schmitt 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Vilade 1

0
0

Inn 9

0
1

Inn 10

Aranda 1

SF
TB

Play-by-play · 565 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 2

  2. B10

    Aranda singled to right, Simpson scored, Caminero to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 2

    +19pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 2

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  5. B10

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Jonathan Aranda

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 2

  6. B10

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  7. B10

    Caminero intentionally walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

    +7pp

  8. B10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  9. B10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  10. B10

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  11. B10

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  12. B10

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Junior Caminero

    ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  13. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    SF 1·TB 1

  14. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    SF 1·TB 1

  15. T10

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  16. T10

    Haase grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  17. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  18. T10

    Ian Seymour pitches to Eric Haase

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  19. T10

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  20. T10

    Gilbert popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

    +8pp

  21. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  22. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  23. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  24. T10

    Ian Seymour pitches to Drew Gilbert

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  25. T10

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  26. T10

    Lee flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

    +11pp

  27. T10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  28. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  29. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

  30. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 1·TB 1

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

TB vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Logan WebbSF
    5.3± 1.7low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    63.3%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.9%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.4%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.