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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
BOS

BOS

23-33

3
4
CLE

CLE

34-25

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
34,404 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

52.1%

open 51.7% · +0.3

+2.0+1.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL56.1%47.7%CLE NO-VIG %May 28, 5 PMMay 29, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

BOS 3 · CLE 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000300003
CLE400000004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.8pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

BOS

★ best
+930DraftKings

edge +19.8pp · implied 14.8%

CLE

no live price

BookBOSCLEBest edge
DraftKings+930★-126+19.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 27, 26sim 94
    202
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    70
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 93
    34
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 93
    261
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 93
    43
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 93
    222
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, May 29·Final/SeriesCLE leads series 1-0/VegasCLE -126

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Boston Red Sox, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

CLE +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Chase DeLauter

Chase DeLauter

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS23-33
3
4
CLE34-25
BOS23-33·CLE34-25
BOS

BOS

23-33

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44011003
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44000000
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44000001
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-44020001
SPRINT26.838
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-44010000
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
2-44120000
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT27.560
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
2-44121001
SPRINT27.560
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-44011002
Team11-36363113008
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SamaniegoT. Samaniego★RP
1.0644020
B. BelloB. BelloSP
7.0400050
Team8.01044070
CLE

CLE

34-25

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
1-44010002
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
2-44120000
SPRINT26.941
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
1-44111000
SPRINT24.96
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT25.411
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.765
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-33010000
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-22011000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000002
Team10-32324103007
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
4.1733030
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
1.1000010
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
0.2100000
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
0.2000010
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0200000
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0100030
Team9.01133080

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • B. Bello
    63 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      35%·96.2 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      25%·89.0 mph·45% whiff
    • FC
      17%·88.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.1 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      10%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Samaniego
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.0 mph·— whiff

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    69 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      39%·93.4 mph·7% whiff
    • FC
      22%·89.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      16%·76.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·79.5 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Holderman
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      10%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      27%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      69%·96.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Herrin
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      36%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.3 mph·— whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      29%·89.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      29%·83.0 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

10

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

CLE leads series 1-0

May 29BOSBOS3@CLECLE4today
May 30BOSBOS@CLECLEupcoming
May 31BOSBOS@CLECLEupcoming

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

May 29BOSBOS3@CLECLE4today
May 30BOSBOS@CLECLEupcoming
May 31BOSBOS@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 22CLECLE@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 23CLECLE@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 24CLECLE@BOSBOSupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS+10449%
CLECLE-12656%

↘2· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 5th Inning

BOSBOS
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Top relieverGem

7.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H

CLECLE
C. DeLauter

C. DeLauter

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 7 H

How it ended

CLE beat BOS 4-3.

Win probability

CLE vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 5th Inning · 2-4
+14pp→ 37% WP

Durbin · doubled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored, Mayer to third.

CLETop 8th Inning · 3-4
+11pp→ 91% WP

Gasper · grounded out to first.

BOSTop 9th Inning · 3-4
+12pp→ 22% WP

Kiner-Falefa · singled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000300003
CLE40000000—4

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · CLE won 1

0
4

Inn 1

Mart 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Mayer 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
CLE

Play-by-play · 474 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  2. T9

    Duran struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

    +6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  6. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Jarren Duran

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  7. T9

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  8. T9

    Patrick Bailey challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Caleb Durbin called out on strikes.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

    +7pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  14. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Caleb Durbin

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  15. T9

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  16. T9

    Mayer struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

    +9pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  20. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Marcelo Mayer

    · ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  21. T9

    ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  22. T9

    Kiner-Falefa singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

    −12pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  25. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  26. T9

    Smith relieved Gaddis

    ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  29. B8

    ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

  30. B8

    Martínez flied out to center.

    ·

    BOS 3·CLE 4

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

3

Runs

4

11

Hits

10

1

Errors

1

13

TB

11

0

HR

0

0

BB

0

8

K

7

12

LOB

13

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8·BOS +104/CLE -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.31

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

52.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CLE vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.8low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    63.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.6%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.3%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.