MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BAL

PIT

64-81

BAL

67-77

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

15,488 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.4%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
54.4%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.1%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.1%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.6± 2.1low
Paul SkenesPIT
6.6± 3.3low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.6± 3.0low

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.2± 0.9high
Leody TaverasBAL
1.1± 0.8high
Brandon LowePIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.1± 2.0high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.7high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.8± 0.9high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.3high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.8low
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 2.3low
Chris BassittBAL
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

PIT 2 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
PIT	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
BAL	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Triolo★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. Horwitz★1B	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT24.85
B. Reynolds★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. Pham★LF	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	1	0
A. McCutchen★DH	1-5	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT27.662
N. Gonzales★3B	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.586
O. Cruz★CF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT28.483
H. Davis★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Devanney★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2

Team	5-37	37	2	5	2	1	5	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

1-5

0-4

1-4

1-5

1-5

1-3

0-3

0-4

Team

5-37

	Pitching
M. Burrows★SP	4.0	2	1	1	1	6	0
B. AshcraftSP	3.0	2	1	1	2	4	1
K. NicolasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SantanaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. MattsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0

Team	10.0	6	3	2	6	12	1

Pitching

Player

4.0

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

	Batting
J. Holliday★2B	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
J. Jackson★2B	2-3	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
SPRINT26.530
G. Henderson★SS	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
SPRINT28.175
R. Mountcastle★1B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. Cowser★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
S. Basallo★C	1-5	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT25.310
E. Rivera★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Beavers★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
C. Mayo★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JohnsonCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	6-33	33	3	6	3	1	6	12

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI