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FINAL+4MIA
NYM

NYM

83-79

0
4
MIA

MIA

79-83

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
34,660 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

NYM 0 · MIA 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
MIA000400004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 98
    231
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 97
    300
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 97
    232
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 97
    233
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 96
    52
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 96
    215
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 28·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off New York Mets, 4–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Mark Vientos

Mark Vientos

1B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Connor Norby

Connor Norby

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM83-79
0
4
MIA79-83
NYM83-79·MIA79-83
NYM

NYM

83-79

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-33010021
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-33000010
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.29
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.278
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-22010021
SPRINT25.513
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-44000002
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-44000003
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
0-22000021
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
1-22010001
SPRINT28.891
J. YoungJ. Young1B
0-11000001
C. MullinsC. MullinsCF
0-11000000
Team5-30300500711
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ManaeaS. Manaea★RP
1.2000230
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
1.0100000
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
0.2111000
R. StanekR. StanekRP
0.1222000
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.1211000
E. DiazE. DiazRP
2.0000010
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0100110
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0200010
Team8.0944360
MIA

MIA

79-83

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-55021001
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44010000
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-33000011
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-44000001
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
2-33120011
SPRINT2872
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
1-44111001
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-33010010
B. NavarretoB. Navarreto★1B
1-44111001
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-33111000
SPRINT28.381
Team9-3333494036
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP
5.0200570
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
0.2100000
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.1100020
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0100120
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
1.0000100
Team9.05007110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • S. Manaea
    38 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      53%·78.0 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      45%·92.9 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      3%·84.1 mph·— whiff
  • E. Diaz
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      52%·89.4 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      48%·98.0 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Soto
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      44%·99.1 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      36%·85.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      78%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      17%·99.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      70%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • ST
      50%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·83.3 mph·— whiff
  • R. Stanek
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      44%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·100.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      11%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      11%·83.8 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      86%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·74.2 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • E. Cabrera
    83 pitches·28% CSW
    • CU
      30%·86.1 mph·58% whiff
    • CH
      29%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·98.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      12%·88.0 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      8%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      29%·92.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      25%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      13%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      39%·87.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      30%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·84.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·95.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Gibson
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      30%·77.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      30%·91.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      20%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Phillips
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.6 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      33%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      22%·84.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

0

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Mar 31NYMNYM10@MIAMIA4
Apr 1NYMNYM2@MIAMIA4
Apr 2NYMNYM6@MIAMIA5
Sep 26NYMNYM2@MIAMIA6
Sep 27NYMNYM5@MIAMIA0
Sep 28NYMNYM0@MIAMIA4today

Season series

MIA wins series 7-6

Mar 31NYMNYM10@MIAMIA4
Apr 1NYMNYM2@MIAMIA4
Apr 2NYMNYM6@MIAMIA5
Apr 7MIAMIA0@NYMNYM2
Apr 8MIAMIA5@NYMNYM10
Apr 9MIAMIA5@NYMNYM0
Aug 28MIAMIA7@NYMNYM4
Aug 29MIAMIA9@NYMNYM19
Aug 30MIAMIA11@NYMNYM8
Aug 31MIAMIA5@NYMNYM1
Sep 26NYMNYM2@MIAMIA6
Sep 27NYMNYM5@MIAMIA0
Sep 28NYMNYM0@MIAMIA4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 4th Inning

NYMNYM
M. Vientos

M. Vientos

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

S. Manaea

S. Manaea

RP

Starting pitcher

1.2 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 BB

MIAMIA
C. Norby

C. Norby

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 5 BB

How it ended

MIA beat NYM 4-0.

Win probability

MIA vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 55% WP

Sanoja · grounded out to shortstop.

MIABottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 72% WP

Wagaman · doubled to center, Norby scored.

MIABottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 88% WP

Sanoja · tripled to left, Navarreto scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000000000
MIA00040000—4

Period scoring

NYM won 0 · MIA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
4

Inn 4

Wagaman 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYM
MIA

Play-by-play · 573 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  2. T9

    Lindor grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Mauricio out at second.

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  5. T9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Francisco Lindor

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  6. T9

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  7. T9

    Mullins flied out to right.

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

    +2pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  10. T9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Cedric Mullins

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  11. T9

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  12. T9

    Mauricio walked.

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

    −2pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  18. T9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Ronny Mauricio

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  19. T9

    Phillips relieved Faucher

    ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  20. T9

    Wiemer in right field.

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  21. T9

    Pauley at third base.

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  24. B8

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  25. B8

    Edwards grounded out to first.

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 0·MIA 4

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

0

Runs

4

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

6

TB

14

0

HR

0

7

BB

3

11

K

6

20

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872
  • Connor NorbyMIA · 1B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    54.5%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.1%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.7%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.