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FINAL+1BAL
PIT

PIT

64-82

1
2
BAL

BAL

68-77

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
18,210 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

PIT 1 · BAL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
PIT00010000001
BAL00000001012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLB·Wed, Sep 10·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Daniel Johnson

Daniel Johnson

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
PIT64-82
1
2
BAL68-77
PIT64-82·BAL68-77
PIT

PIT

64-82

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-44000002
SPRINT28.483
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44111100
SPRINT24.85
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-44000001
SPRINT27.969
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-33000010
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-44000001
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.662
C. DevanneyC. Devanney★SS
0-44000003
J. BaeJ. Bae★CF
0-22000021
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33000002
Team2-32321211310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
5.0200080
C. MlodzinskiC. MlodzinskiSP
2.0000220
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0311000
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000020
Team9.07213120
BAL

BAL

68-77

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-33011011
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-44000000
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000002
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
1-44010002
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-44000002
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-33110011
SPRINT28.175
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
1-33010002
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
2-33021010
SPRINT29.194
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-33000002
D. JohnsonD. JohnsonCF
1-11010000
Team7-32322720312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WellsT. Wells★RP
6.2111161
S. DubinS. DubinRP
0.2100110
K. StrowdK. StrowdRP
0.2000010
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000110
A. SuarezA. SuarezRP
1.0000010
Team10.02113101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    64 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      34%·97.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      20%·93.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      17%·84.2 mph·57% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·82.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      2%·86.3 mph·— whiff
  • C. Mlodzinski
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      30%·96.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      23%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      20%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    23 pitches·9% CSW
    • FF
      74%·93.4 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      26%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·91.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      19%·84.1 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    8 pitches·63% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.1 mph·— whiff

BAL

  • T. Wells
    89 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      36%·92.9 mph·24% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.9 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.5 mph·23% whiff
    • FC
      12%·90.7 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.7 mph·25% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      36%·86.0 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      36%·94.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·84.1 mph·— whiff
  • S. Dubin
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      33%·93.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·83.0 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Suarez
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      41%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      35%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      12%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.1 mph·— whiff
  • K. Strowd
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      57%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      14%·83.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

7

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

Sep 9PITPIT2@BALBAL3
Sep 10PITPIT1@BALBAL2today
Sep 11PITPIT2@BALBAL3

Season series

BAL leads series 2-0

Sep 9PITPIT2@BALBAL3
Sep 10PITPIT1@BALBAL2today
Sep 11PITPIT2@BALBAL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 30pp · Bottom 8th Inning

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H

BALBAL
D. Johnson

D. Johnson

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

T. Wells

T. Wells

RP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat PIT 2-1. Holliday's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Win probability

BAL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 65% WP

Horwitz · homered to right (386 feet).

BALBottom 8th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 42% WP

Cowser · singled to right.

BALBottom 8th Inning · 1-1
+30pp→ 62% WP

Holliday · singled to left, Cowser scored, Johnson to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
PIT00010000001
BAL00000001012

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · BAL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Horwitz 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Holliday 1

0
0

Inn 9

0
1

Inn 10

Beavers 1

PIT
BAL

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 2

  2. B10

    Beavers singled to right, Mateo scored, Johnson to second, Cowser to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 2

    +8pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 2

  4. B10

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  5. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  6. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  7. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  8. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  9. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  10. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  11. B10

    Kyle Nicolas pitches to Dylan Beavers

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 2

  12. B10

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  13. B10

    Johnson reached on bunt single to pitcher, Cowser to second, Mateo to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

    +12pp

  14. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  15. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  16. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  17. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  18. B10

    Kyle Nicolas pitches to Daniel Johnson

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  19. B10

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  20. B10

    Cowser walked.

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

    −0.9pp

  21. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  22. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  23. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  24. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  25. B10

    Kyle Nicolas pitches to Colton Cowser

    ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  26. B10

    Nicolas relieved Santana

    ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  27. B10

    Mateo ran for Basallo

    ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  28. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  29. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    PIT 1·BAL 1

  30. T10

    · ·

    PIT 1·BAL 1

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

1

Runs

2

2

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

5

TB

8

1

HR

0

3

BB

3

10

K

12

12

LOB

10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 98
    52
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    231
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 97
    233
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 96
    232
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    53
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    232
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

BAL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    55.5%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.3%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.1%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 10 players in cohort
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
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