MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DET

DET

87-75

CLE

88-74

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

26,186 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
61.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.1%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.4high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.3± 3.5high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high
Kerry CarpenterDET
1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.6high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CLE

.705

OPS

◀

.717

.689

.315

OBP

.319

.317

4.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

3.94

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.75

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 2 · CLE 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
CLE	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
P. MeadowsCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
G. Torres2B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
S. Torkelson1B	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. GreeneLF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
W. PerezRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. McKinstry2B	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
J. BaezSS	.667	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	5	2	0	2	13

Player

AVG

RBI

.000

.000

.250

.333

.333

.000

.000

.000

.667

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. SkubalSP	7.2	3	1	1	3	14	107
W. VestRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	4	1	1	3	15	122

Player

T. SkubalSP

7.2

107

W. VestRP

1.1

Team

9.0

122

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. Ramirez3B	.333	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. RodriguezRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Manzardo1B	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. AriasSS	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. NoelRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. HedgesC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
B. NaylorC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. ValeraLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KayfusLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. HalpinCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	4	1	0	3	15

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
G. WilliamsSP	6.0	5	2	0	1	8	88
H. GaddisRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	19
E. SabrowskiRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
Team	9.0	5	2	0	2	13	131

Team

DET

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.