HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBEnd 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -6.5pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -48.3pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:51 - 4th
    TOR 76@WSH 81
    +27.6pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1STL
STL

STL

57-57

3
2
LAD

LAD

65-48

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
46,628 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

STL

league avg

LAD

LAD

.718

OPS

.715

▶

.789

.323

OBP

.319

▶

.347

4.49

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

4.01

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.28

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.09

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 3 · LAD 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0100000113
LAD0001000102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 4·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. StewartLAD−35.8pp
  2. 2Y. PozoSTL+35.1pp
  3. 3I. HerreraSTL+32.2pp

STL · top performer

STL
Yohel Pozo

Yohel Pozo

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
B. Donovan3B
.2794000001
I. HerreraDH
.3104121100
A. Burleson1B
.2814000001
W. Contreras1B
.2564010001
L. NootbaarLF
.2264010001
M. WinnSS
.2703111110
T. SaggeseLF
.2314010002
P. PagesC
.2002000012
V. Scott IICF
.2254000001
- G. Hampson2B
.1500100000
- Y. PozoC
.2751011000
Team34373229

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. GraySP
7.01111890
R. O'BrienRP
1.0111006
J. RomeroRP
1.01001119
Team9.032229115

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniDH
.2744010002
M. BettsSS
.2314000001
F. Freeman1B
.3054111102
W. SmithC
.3213000011
M. Muncy3B
.2473000011
T. HernándezLF
.2513010000
M. ConfortoDH
.1913000001
A. PagesCF
.2753001000
M. RojasSS
.2443000001
- E. RuizRF
.1900100000
Team30232129

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. GlasnowSP
7.031127101
A. BandaRP
1.01110120
B. StewartRP
0.23110121
J. DreyerRP
0.1000001
Team9.073329143

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAD

  • A. Banda
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      47%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·97.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·88.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

3

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Aug 5STLSTL3@LADLAD2today
Aug 6STLSTL6@LADLAD12
Aug 6STLSTL5@LADLAD3

Season series

STL leads series 3-1

Jun 7LADLAD0@STLSTL5
Jun 7LADLAD1@STLSTL2
Jun 8LADLAD7@STLSTL3
Aug 5STLSTL3@LADLAD2today
Aug 6STLSTL6@LADLAD12
Aug 6STLSTL5@LADLAD3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 35pp · Top 9th Inning

STLSTL
Y. Pozo

Y. Pozo

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

STL beat LAD 3-2. Pozo's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (35pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 8th Inning · 2-1
+29pp→ 67% WP

Herrera · homered to center (428 feet).

STLTop 9th Inning · 2-2
+21pp→ 75% WP

Nootbaar · singled to center, Hampson to third.

STLTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+35pp→ 80% WP

Pozo · singled to right, Hampson scored, Nootbaar to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0100000113
LAD0001000102

Period scoring

STL won 2 · LAD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Winn 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
1

Inn 8

Herrera 1

Pages 1

1
0

Inn 9

Pozo 1

STL
LAD

Play-by-play · 512 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    STL 3·LAD 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  3. B9

    Muncy lined out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

    −18pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  10. B9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Max Muncy

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  11. B9

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  12. B9

    Smith walked, Ohtani to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

    +6pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  19. B9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Will Smith

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  20. B9

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  21. B9

    Freeman struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

    −14pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  26. B9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  27. B9

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  28. B9

    Betts flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

    −14pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 3·LAD 2

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

3

Runs

2

7

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

13

TB

7

2

HR

1

2

BB

2

9

K

9

14

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

LAD vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    5.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.3± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.8± 1.7high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    2.6± 1.8high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    2.4± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ryan WardLAD
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.9± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.6± 2.2low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.4± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    61.3%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.6%

    P(LAD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.7%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.