MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3LAD

LAD

79-64

BAL

66-77

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

27,874 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
52.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.5%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.1%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shohei OhtaniLAD
6.8± 3.4low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.9± 3.5low
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
5.9± 3.0low

Hits

Leody TaverasBAL
1.1± 0.8high
Andy PagesLAD
1.1± 1.3high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Freddie FreemanLAD
2.3± 2.6high
Andy PagesLAD
2.2± 3.0high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

Andy PagesLAD
0.9± 1.0high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.3high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.8low
Eric LauerLAD
3.1± 2.8low
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · BAL 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	5
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
S. Ohtani★SP	2-2	2	2	2	2	2	3	0
SPRINT2744
M. Betts★SS	2-5	5	1	2	2	1	0	1
F. Freeman★1B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Conforto★RF	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
SPRINT2622
A. Call★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Rojas★SS	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.123
H. Kim★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. Hernández★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Rortvedt★C	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1

Team	10-36	36	5	10	4	3	4	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-2

2-5

0-5

2-4

1-4

1-4

1-4

0-4

1-4

Team

10-36

	Pitching
C. Kershaw★SP	5.2	4	2	2	1	8	0
E. HenriquezRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. WrobleskiSP	2.0	2	0	0	0	5	0
J. DreyerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0
Team	9.0	8	2	2	1	15	0

Pitching

Player

5.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
J. Jackson★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Mountcastle★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
G. Henderson★SS	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT28.175
E. Rivera★3B	2-4	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
A. Jackson★C	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
D. Carlson★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. Mayo★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT2872
J. Mateo★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Vazquez★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team	8-35	35	2	8	2	0	1	15

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI