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FINAL+4BAL
BAL

BAL

52-63

5
1
PHI

PHI

65-49

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
42,030 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 5 · PHI 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0004001005
PHI0000100001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 5, 25sim 97
    243
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 97
    10
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    153
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    155
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    245
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    303
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 6·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Vidal Brujan

Vidal Brujan

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Trea Turner

Trea Turner

SS

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL52-63
5
1
PHI65-49
BAL52-63·PHI65-49
BAL

BAL

52-63

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-44011000
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
0-44000000
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
2-44120001
SPRINT26.632
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-33111001
SPRINT26.530
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
2-44123100
SPRINT2872
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-44010000
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
0-44000000
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
1-33110002
V. BrujanV. BrujanSS
1-11010000
Team10-35355105104
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
6.0811260
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
2.0100050
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0000100
Team9.09113110
PHI

PHI

65-49

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
3-44031010
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000003
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT2744
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-44000002
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.662
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
1-44010002
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-44010001
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-33110011
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
1-33010010
Team9-34341910311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
6.1955031
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
0.2000000
J. RossJ. RossRP
1.0100000
A. RangelA. RangelRP
1.0000010
Team9.01055041

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    104 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      36%·87.2 mph·18% whiff
    • FF
      34%·93.4 mph·12% whiff
    • FC
      16%·81.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·79.0 mph·33% whiff
  • D. Enns
    29 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      45%·85.3 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      38%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      7%·77.8 mph·— whiff
  • K. Akin
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      47%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.0 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • R. Suarez
    95 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      24%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·78.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      21%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·71.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      9%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Rangel
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      56%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·81.4 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Ross
    7 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romano
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      75%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

5

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Aug 4BALBAL3@PHIPHI13
Aug 5BALBAL0@PHIPHI5
Aug 6BALBAL5@PHIPHI1today

Season series

PHI wins series 2-1

Aug 4BALBAL3@PHIPHI13
Aug 5BALBAL0@PHIPHI5
Aug 6BALBAL5@PHIPHI1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 4th Inning

BALBAL
V. Brujan

V. Brujan

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
T. Turner

T. Turner

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.550 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 9 H

How it ended

BAL beat PHI 5-1. J. Jackson's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 70% WP

Turner · tripled to left.

BALTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+18pp→ 68% WP

J. Jackson · doubled to left, Henderson scored, Rutschman to third.

PHIBottom 5th Inning · 4-0
+10pp→ 28% WP

March · án singled to right, Wilson to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0004001005
PHI0000100001

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · PHI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

4
0

Inn 4

Mayo 3

0
1

Inn 5

Turner 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Holliday 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
PHI

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  2. B9

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  3. B9

    Turner grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Marchán out at second.

    · ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  9. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Trea Turner

    · ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  10. B9

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  11. B9

    Marchán walked.

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

    +2pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  18. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Rafael Marchan

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  19. B9

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  20. B9

    Wilson grounded out to third.

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

    −1pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  25. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Weston Wilson

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  26. B9

    Akin relieved Enns

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  29. T9

    ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

  30. T9

    A. Jackson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 5·PHI 1

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

5

Runs

1

10

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

16

TB

12

1

HR

0

0

BB

3

4

K

11

7

LOB

20

Player projections

PHI vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    61.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.1%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872