HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 11
  • MLBTop 7
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -7.3pppeak
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBMid 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:26 - 4th
    TOR 76@WSH 82
    +31.9pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BAL
BAL

BAL

62-76

4
3
SD

SD

76-62

Petco Park · San Diego, California
45,586 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

BAL

league avg

SD

SD

.727

OPS

◀

.715

.652

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.292

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.79

4.55

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.96

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.29

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 4 · SD 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0200101004
SD0200100003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Sep 1·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. JacksonBAL+53.5pp
  2. 2J. JacksonBAL+45.5pp
  3. 3D. BeaversBAL+44.1pp

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jeremiah Jackson

Jeremiah Jackson

2B

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. Holliday2B
.2455010000
J. Jackson2B
.3375231102
G. HendersonSS
.2794010010
E. Rivera3B
.2443010001
D. BeaversRF
.3334121001
D. CarlsonLF
.2083100011
S. BasalloC
.2174022000
C. Mayo3B
.1864010003
A. JacksonC
.2394000004
- D. JohnsonCF
.1820000000
- C. CowserRF
.2101000001
- L. VazquezSS
.1710000000
Team3741141213

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
K. BradishSP
4.04222584
D. EnnsRP
2.12101134
R. GarciaRP
1.20000221
K. AkinRP
1.01000118
Team9.073239157

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
L. Arraez2B
.2854031001
M. Machado3B
.2844000001
R. O'HearnRF
.2623010011
R. LaureanoLF
.3034011001
G. Sheets1B
.2683100012
J. Cronenworth2B
.2493100010
J. Iglesias2B
.2214000000
B. JohnsonRF
.3454021001
F. FerminC
.2363100002
- W. Wagner3B
.1671000000
- J. MerrillCF
.2610000000
Team33373039

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
D. CeaseSP
4.05222791
A. MorejonRP
1.22110121
J. AdamRP
0.23110126
R. SuarezRP
1.21000324
K. HartRP
1.00000110
Team9.01144213172

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    84 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      40%·95.0 mph·18% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      10%·85.0 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Enns
    34 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.6 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      26%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      33%·96.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      29%·87.0 mph·80% whiff
    • CU
      24%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Akin
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      61%·95.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      22%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.6 mph·0% whiff

SD

  • D. Cease
    91 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      45%·88.7 mph·62% whiff
    • FF
      36%·96.5 mph·28% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      5%·82.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·83.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Adam
    26 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      31%·88.9 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      27%·84.9 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      8%·78.6 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      58%·100.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·91.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      4%·92.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·101.3 mph·— whiff
  • A. Morejon
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      76%·98.8 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·90.9 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Hart
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      30%·93.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      10%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

Sep 1BALBAL4@SDSD3today
Sep 3BALBAL6@SDSD2
Sep 3BALBAL7@SDSD5

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

Sep 1BALBAL4@SDSD3today
Sep 3BALBAL6@SDSD2
Sep 3BALBAL7@SDSD5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 7th Inning

BALBAL
J. Jackson

J. Jackson

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

SDSD
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat SD 4-3. Beavers's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+20pp→ 72% WP

Basallo · doubled to right, Beavers scored and Carlson scored.

BALTop 5th Inning · 3-2
+18pp→ 59% WP

J. Jackson · homered to center (426 feet).

BALTop 7th Inning · 4-3
+22pp→ 63% WP

Beavers · singled to right, J. Jackson scored, Henderson to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0200101004
SD0200100003

Period scoring

BAL won 1 · SD won 0

0
0

Inn 1

2
2

Inn 2

Basallo 2

Johnson 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
1

Inn 5

Jackson 1

Laureano 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Beavers 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
SD

Play-by-play · 611 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 4·SD 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  3. B9

    Arraez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

    −9pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  9. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Luis Arraez

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  10. B9

    Merrill ran for Wagner

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  11. B9

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  12. B9

    Wagner grounded into fielder's choice to second, Johnson out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

    −11pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  16. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Will Wagner

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  17. B9

    Wagner hit for Fermin

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  18. B9

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  19. B9

    Johnson singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

    +9pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  24. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Bryce Johnson

    · ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  25. B9

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  26. B9

    Iglesias flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

    −9pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 4·SD 3

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

4

Runs

3

11

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

17

TB

7

1

HR

0

2

BB

3

13

K

9

14

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.2± 3.1low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.2± 2.3low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Taylor WardBAL
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.9± 2.9high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.6high
  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.6low
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.4low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.3± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.2%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    60.7%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.3%

    P(SD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.2%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.98 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.