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  • MLBBot 5
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +33.4ppmedium
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    SD 3@WSH 2
    -35.2ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    TOR 2@BAL 1
    -41.1ppmedium
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    BOS 2@CLE 1
    -48.7ppmedium
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    MIL 2@HOU 3
    +41.9ppmedium
  • MLBMid 5
    MIA 1@NYM 3
    +45.6pplow
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    KC 0@TEX 3
    +41.3pplow
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    LAA 6@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CLE
BAL

BAL

44-55

5
10
CLE

CLE

49-50

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
21,748 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

BAL 5 · CLE 10 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL3020000005
CLE3001114010

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jul 21·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Baltimore Orioles, 10–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Ramon Laureano

Ramon Laureano

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL44-55
5
10
CLE49-50
BAL44-55·CLE49-50
BAL

BAL

44-55

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
2-44120001
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
1-44110002
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44111000
SPRINT28.175
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-44100001
SPRINT26.735
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
2-44124100
SPRINT2872
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-44000001
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-33000000
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-33000001
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
0-33000001
Team6-3333565107
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
3.2643441
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0111111
C. SelbyC. SelbyRP
1.1311001
G. WolframG. WolframRP
2.0444320
Team8.014109873
CLE

CLE

49-50

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-33120030
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
2-55220001
SPRINT27.765
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-55313110
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
2-33121110
SPRINT25.411
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
2-55021001
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
1-44111013
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-33001020
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
2-44022000
SPRINT27.354
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
2-55121101
SPRINT27.354
D. FryD. FryRF
0-22100001
Team14-3939101410387
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
7.0653041
K. AllardK. AllardRP
1.0000020
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0000010
Team9.0653071

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Sugano
    90 pitches·20% CSW
    • FS
      24%·87.8 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      18%·78.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      18%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    39 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      56%·95.4 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Martin
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      41%·91.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      14%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Selby
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      36%·95.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      36%·95.5 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      27%·83.1 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    86 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      23%·85.8 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      22%·94.1 mph·10% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.7 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      20%·82.8 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Allard
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      50%·89.7 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      29%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·71.8 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      42%·87.8 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

14

5

Runs

10

2

Errors

1

Current series

CLE wins series 3-1

Jul 21BALBAL5@CLECLE10today
Jul 22BALBAL3@CLECLE6
Jul 23BALBAL2@CLECLE3
Jul 24BALBAL4@CLECLE3

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 15CLECLE6@BALBAL3
Apr 16CLECLE1@BALBAL9
Apr 17CLECLE2@BALBAL6
Jul 21BALBAL5@CLECLE10today
Jul 22BALBAL3@CLECLE6
Jul 23BALBAL2@CLECLE3
Jul 24BALBAL4@CLECLE3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 3rd Inning

BALBAL
R. Laureano

R. Laureano

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

CLECLE
K. Manzardo

K. Manzardo

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H

How it ended

CLE beat BAL 10-5. Laureano's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

CLE vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 1st Inning · 3-3
+21pp→ 65% WP

Ram · írez homered to right (381 feet), Kwan scored and Martínez scored.

BALTop 3rd Inning · 5-3
+24pp→ 62% WP

Laureano · homered to left (425 feet), O'Hearn scored.

CLEBottom 5th Inning · 5-5
+18pp→ 59% WP

Naylor · homered to right center (408 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL3020000005
CLE30011140—10

Period scoring

BAL won 1 · CLE won 4

3
3

Inn 1

Laureano 2

Ram 3

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Laureano 2

0
1

Inn 4

Santana 1

0
1

Inn 5

Naylor 1

0
1

Inn 6

Manzardo 1

0
4

Inn 7

Rocchio 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BAL
CLE

Play-by-play · 585 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  2. T9

    Cowser popped out to third.

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  9. T9

    Hunter Gaddis pitches to Colton Cowser

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  10. T9

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  11. T9

    Laureano grounded out to third.

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  14. T9

    Hunter Gaddis pitches to Ramon Laureano

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  15. T9

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  16. T9

    O'Hearn struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  21. T9

    Hunter Gaddis pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  22. T9

    Gaddis relieved Allard

    ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  25. B8

    · ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  26. B8

    Fry struck out looking.

    · ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 5·CLE 10

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

5

Runs

10

6

Hits

14

2

Errors

1

9

TB

25

1

HR

3

0

BB

8

7

K

7

5

LOB

35

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CLE vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    53.8%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.4%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    311
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    12
    26(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 94
    1512
    28(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    1111
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 93
    307
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 92
    307
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs