MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TEX

TEX

69-67

ATH

63-73

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

8,413 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.1%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
52.9%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.6%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.8%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.6low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.0± 2.5low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.7± 3.1low

Hits

Nick KurtzATH
1.1± 1.0high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 0.9high
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.4high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.9± 3.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.9± 1.4high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.5high
Brandon NimmoTEX
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.4low
Jacob LopezATH
2.8± 2.3low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 5 · ATH 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	5
ATH	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
M. Helman★CF	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	1	1
E. Duran★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Langford★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. Garcia★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Jung★3B	3-4	4	1	3	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.920
K. Higashioka★C	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT23.91
C. Freeman★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Heim★C	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	1	0
SPRINT25.18
D. Moore★CF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Smith2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Tellez1B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team	10-33	33	5	10	5	2	3	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-4

0-4

0-3

0-4

3-4

2-4

1-2

1-2

1-2

0-2

1-2

Team

10-33

	Pitching
J. Leiter★SP	6.0	5	2	2	2	7	0
H. MilnerRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. ArmstrongRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	0
Team	9.0	5	2	2	3	8	0

Pitching

Player

J. Leiter★SP

6.0

H. MilnerRP

1.1

S. ArmstrongRP

1.2

Team

9.0

	Batting
N. Kurtz★1B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
SPRINT26.632
S. Langeliers★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Rooker★DH	1-3	3	0	1	2	0	1	0
SPRINT27.148
T. Soderstrom★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Wilson★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.148
C. Thomas★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Butler★RF	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.530
D. Hernaiz★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. Gelof★3B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.891
C. CortesRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Harris3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	5-31	31	2	5	2	0	3	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI