Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at PHX?

The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+9LA

7-6

111102

PHX

4-11

WNBASat, Jun 13FinalSeriesLA leads series 2-1VegasLA -1.5

LA · top performer

Kelsey Plum

G · #10

28.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Kahleah Copper

G · #2

24.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLA ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 33pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:21

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	36	15	6-11	3-5	—	+12	15	3
D. HambyF · #5	28	8	3-7	—	2-3	-4	6	0
E. WheelerG · #17	29	6	2-8	2-6	—	+3	0	5
K. PlumG · #10	37	43	14-26	5-11	10-12	+9	2	7
A. AtkinsG · #7	31	6	2-7	1-3	1-1	+7	1	3
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	22	9	2-4	2-4	3-3	+11	9	2
JihyunF · #6	4	0	—	—	—	-3	1	0
R. BurrellG · #12	27	24	9-15	2-4	4-4	+7	3	1
K. MartinG · #21	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	0	0
C. GrayG · #2	8	0	—	—	—	+6	0	0
Team		111	38-79	15-34	20-23		37	21
DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, T. Latson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	41	10	4-10	—	2-3	-8	7	12
N. MackF · #4	35	11	5-9	0-1	1-1	+6	12	4
N. BrochantF · #1	23	8	3-5	2-3	—	+3	3	1
K. CopperG · #2	38	41	16-30	6-14	3-6	-9	10	1
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	24	9	3-5	1-2	2-4	+2	2	5
Bench
D. BonnerF · #24	14	10	3-5	3-5	1-1	-16	1	0
J. NogicG · #29	15	4	2-4	0-2	—	-3	1	1
L. HeldG · #10	29	9	4-10	1-6	—	-8	2	2
Q. CarterG · #20	8	0	0-2	0-2	—	-12	0	0
Team		102	40-80	13-35	9-15		38	26
DNP: V. Ayayi, M. Suarez, K. Linskens, S. Whitcomb

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

38-79

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-80

FG %

15-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-35

20-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LA leads series 2-1

May 22

LA97@

PHX88

Jun 14

LA111@

PHX102today

Jul 22

PHX86@

LA82

Aug 12

PHX@

LAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

171.5

High-scoring · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-12055%

PHX+10050%

4· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

171.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat PHX 111-102. K. Plum led the way with 43 points and 7 assists. LA outscored the other side 28-16 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs LA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LAstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST

GS 34

PHXstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 34 REB · 23 AST

GS 68

Bench(4)

23 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX3rd Quarter · 4:21 · 65-66

+33pp→ 60% WP

shot clock turnover

PHX4th Quarter · 3:34 · 86-84

+22pp→ 33% WP

Kelsey Plum · misses 5-foot two point shot

LA4th Quarter · 1.6 · 98-98

+20pp→ 48% WP

Kelsey Plum · makes layup (Nneka Ogwumike assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
LA	27	24	28	19	13	111
PHX	27	27	16	28	4	102

Period scoring

LA won 2 · PHX won 2

Hamby 8

Copper 14

Burrell 13

Copper 15

Plum 17

Copper 5

Plum 17

Copper 13

Brink 6

Mack 2

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

48%

38-79

50%

40-80

44%

15-34

3PT

37%

13-35

87%

20-23

60%

9-15

Play-by-play · 438 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
LA 111·PHX 102
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
LA 111·PHX 102
OT·3.1
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
LA 111·PHX 102
OT·5.0
Erica Wheeler misses driving layup
LA 111·PHX 102
OT·23.0
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 111·PHX 102
OT·23.0
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 111·PHX 101
OT·23.0
Cameron Brink shooting foul
LA 111·PHX 100
OT·27.3
Alyssa Thomas offensive rebound
LA 111·PHX 100
OT·31.3
Kahleah Copper misses 23-foot three point jumper
LA 111·PHX 100
OT·40.3
Cameron Brink makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 111·PHX 100
OT·40.3
Cameron Brink makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 110·PHX 100
−0.5pp
OT·40.3
(00:40.3) [Mercury] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Mercury] charged with a timeout
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·40.3
Mercury Full timeout
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·40.3
Natasha Mack loose ball foul
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·40.3
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·41.6
Kelsey Plum misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·52.3
Cameron Brink offensive rebound
LA 109·PHX 100
−0.5pp
OT·55.5
Erica Wheeler misses three point shot
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·1:18
Kahleah Copper bad pass turnover (Cameron Brink steals)
·
LA 109·PHX 100
−4pp
OT·1:26
Nneka Ogwumike personal foul
LA 109·PHX 100
+3pp
OT·1:29
Monique Akoa Makani defensive rebound
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·1:34
Ariel Atkins misses 24-foot three point jumper
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·1:53
Sparks defensive team rebound
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·1:53
Kahleah Copper misses two point shot
LA 109·PHX 100
+1pp
OT·1:53
(01:53) [Sparks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Sparks] retain their timeout
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·1:53
Sparks Coach's Challenge
LA 109·PHX 100
−0.7pp
OT·2:13
Erica Wheeler makes 25-foot three pointer (Ariel Atkins assists)
·
LA 109·PHX 100
−3pp
OT·2:40
Natasha Mack makes 4-foot layup (Monique Akoa Makani assists)
·
LA 106·PHX 100
+2pp
OT·2:44
Natasha Mack offensive rebound
LA 106·PHX 98
+1pp
OT·2:47
Kahleah Copper misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
LA 106·PHX 98
−1pp

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 171.5·LA -120/PHX +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

os Angeles Sparks went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 111–102 in overtime.

LA -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 171.5 OVER by 41.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

eFG%

shooting

57.6%

58.1%

TOV%

ball control

11.0%

14.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.6%

25.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

25.3%

11.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kelsey PlumLA · G
TS%.68699
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.5%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
48.9%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
45.5%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
45.4%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.91

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-102

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at PHX?: The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.5pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

★ best

+120DraftKings

edge +17.5pp · implied 42.8%

PHX

no live price

Book	LA	PHX	Best edge
DraftKings	+120★	-154	+17.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHX vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 8.1high
Nneka OgwumikeLA
17.9± 4.8high

Rebounds

Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 3.1high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.5± 2.7high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
7.0± 2.1high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Erica WheelerLA
5.9± 2.2high

Blocks

Cameron BrinkLA
1.4± 0.8high
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
0.7± 0.4high

Steals

Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.2high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Los Angeles SparksPhoenix Mercury

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop