WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+9LA

7-6

111102

PHX

4-11

WNBASat, Jun 13FinalSeriesLA leads series 2-0VegasLA -1.5

Recap · WNBA

os Angeles Sparks went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 111–102 in overtime.

LA -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 171.5 OVER by 41.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LA · top performer

Kelsey Plum

G · #10

28.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Kahleah Copper

G · #2

24.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	+/-	REB	AST
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	36	15	6-11	3-5	—	+12	15	3
D. HambyF · #5	28	8	3-7	—	2-3	-4	6	0
E. WheelerG · #17	29	6	2-8	2-6	—	+3	0	5
K. PlumG · #10	37	43	14-26	5-11	10-12	+9	2	7
A. AtkinsG · #7	31	6	2-7	1-3	1-1	+7	1	3
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	22	9	2-4	2-4	3-3	+11	9	2
JihyunF · #6	4	0	—	—	—	-3	1	0
R. BurrellG · #12	27	24	9-15	2-4	4-4	+7	3	1
K. MartinG · #21	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	0	0
C. GrayG · #2	8	0	—	—	—	+6	0	0
Team		111	38-79	15-34	20-23		37	21
DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, T. Latson

DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, T. Latson

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	+/-	REB	AST
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	41	10	4-10	—	2-3	-8	7	12
N. MackF · #4	35	11	5-9	0-1	1-1	+6	12	4
N. BrochantF · #1	23	8	3-5	2-3	—	+3	3	1
K. CopperG · #2	38	41	16-30	6-14	3-6	-9	10	1
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	24	9	3-5	1-2	2-4	+2	2	5
Bench
D. BonnerF · #24	14	10	3-5	3-5	1-1	-16	1	0
J. NogicG · #29	15	4	2-4	0-2	—	-3	1	1
L. HeldG · #10	29	9	4-10	1-6	—	-8	2	2
Q. CarterG · #20	8	0	0-2	0-2	—	-12	0	0
Team		102	40-80	13-35	9-15		38	26
DNP: V. Ayayi, M. Suarez, K. Linskens, S. Whitcomb

DNP: V. Ayayi, M. Suarez, K. Linskens, S. Whitcomb

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

LA leads series 2-0

May 22

LA97@

PHX88

Jun 14

LA111@

PHX102today

Jul 22

PHX@

LAupcoming

Aug 12

PHX@

LAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

171.5

High-scoring · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-12055%

PHX+10050%

4· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

171.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLA ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 33pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:21

K. Plum

Game leader · 37 min43-pt night

43 PTS · 2 REB · 7 AST

PHX

K. Copper

Game leader · 38 min41-pt night

41 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

LA beat PHX 111-102. K. Plum led the way with 43 points and 7 assists. LA outscored the other side 28-16 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs LA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LAstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST

GS 34

PHXstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 34 REB · 23 AST

GS 68

Bench(4)

23 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX3rd Quarter · 4:21 · 65-66

+33pp→ 60% WP

shot clock turnover

PHX4th Quarter · 3:34 · 86-84

+22pp→ 33% WP

Kelsey Plum · misses 5-foot two point shot

LA4th Quarter · 1.6 · 98-98

+20pp→ 48% WP

Kelsey Plum · makes layup (Nneka Ogwumike assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
LA	27	24	28	19	13	111
PHX	27	27	16	28	4	102

Period scoring

LA won 2 · PHX won 2

Hamby 8

Copper 14

Burrell 13

Copper 15

Plum 17

Copper 5

Plum 17

Copper 13

Brink 6

Mack 2

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

48%

38-79

50%

40-80

44%

15-34

3PT

37%

13-35

87%

20-23

60%

9-15

Play-by-play · 438 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
LA 111·PHX 102
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
LA 111·PHX 102
OT·3.1
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
LA 111·PHX 102
OT·5.0
Erica Wheeler misses driving layup
LA 111·PHX 102
OT·23.0
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 111·PHX 102
OT·23.0
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 111·PHX 101
OT·23.0
Cameron Brink shooting foul
LA 111·PHX 100
OT·27.3
Alyssa Thomas offensive rebound
LA 111·PHX 100
OT·31.3
Kahleah Copper misses 23-foot three point jumper
LA 111·PHX 100
OT·40.3
Cameron Brink makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 111·PHX 100
OT·40.3
Cameron Brink makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 110·PHX 100
−0.5pp
OT·40.3
(00:40.3) [Mercury] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Mercury] charged with a timeout
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·40.3
Mercury Full timeout
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·40.3
Natasha Mack loose ball foul
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·40.3
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·41.6
Kelsey Plum misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·52.3
Cameron Brink offensive rebound
LA 109·PHX 100
−0.5pp
OT·55.5
Erica Wheeler misses three point shot
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·1:18
Kahleah Copper bad pass turnover (Cameron Brink steals)
·
LA 109·PHX 100
−4pp
OT·1:26
Nneka Ogwumike personal foul
LA 109·PHX 100
+3pp
OT·1:29
Monique Akoa Makani defensive rebound
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·1:34
Ariel Atkins misses 24-foot three point jumper
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·1:53
Sparks defensive team rebound
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·1:53
Kahleah Copper misses two point shot
LA 109·PHX 100
+1pp
OT·1:53
(01:53) [Sparks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Sparks] retain their timeout
LA 109·PHX 100
OT·1:53
Sparks Coach's Challenge
LA 109·PHX 100
−0.7pp
OT·2:13
Erica Wheeler makes 25-foot three pointer (Ariel Atkins assists)
·
LA 109·PHX 100
−3pp
OT·2:40
Natasha Mack makes 4-foot layup (Monique Akoa Makani assists)
·
LA 106·PHX 100
+2pp
OT·2:44
Natasha Mack offensive rebound
LA 106·PHX 98
+1pp
OT·2:47
Kahleah Copper misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
LA 106·PHX 98
−1pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

38-79

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-80

FG %

15-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-35

20-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-15

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 171.5·LA -120/PHX +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kelsey PlumLA · G
TS%.68699
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

25.3%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
45.9%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
43.4%
P(PHX win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
44.2%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.91

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-102

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+30.1pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

★ best

+120DraftKings

edge +30.1pp · implied 42.8%

PHX

no live price

Book	LA	PHX	Best edge
DraftKings	+120★	-154	+30.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHX vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
26.0± 11.8low
Kahleah CopperPHX
19.0± 9.8medium
Nneka OgwumikeLA
16.4± 5.8low

Rebounds

Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.2± 6.0low
Natasha MackPHX
8.1± 3.5medium
Dearica HambyLA
7.8± 3.8medium

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.1± 2.5medium
Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Erica WheelerLA
4.7± 2.7medium

Blocks

Cameron BrinkLA
1.6± 0.8medium
Natasha MackPHX
1.3± 1.3medium
Rae BurrellLA
0.6± 1.4low

Steals

Ariel AtkinsLA
1.8± 1.9low
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.8± 1.3medium
Monique Akoa MakaniPHX
1.6± 1.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

PHX

47.0%

FG%

◀

44.4

42.0%

32.8%

3PT %

◀

33.0

31.5%

90.4

PPG

◀

85.4

82.2

20.0

Assists / G

◀

18.0

19.0

14.7

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

12.9

Data via ESPN · wehoop