MIN
10-3
LV
10-3
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Minnesota Lynx, 100–97. Decided by 3.
MIN +3.5 cashed (LV won by 3). Total cleared the 174.5 OVER by 22.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Natasha Howard
F · #1
22
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
24
Pts
10
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 22 | 8-12 | — | 6-6 | +1 | 9 | 2 | |
| 26 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| 34 | 19 | 6-14 | 3-8 | 4-4 | -4 | 2 | 5 | |
| 33 | 17 | 8-19 | 1-3 | — | -3 | 5 | 4 | |
| 34 | 29 | 11-20 | 3-6 | 4-4 | -3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 9 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-4 | -4 | 4 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 97 | 36-74 | 9-21 | 16-18 | 31 | 16 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 20 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +9 | 3 | 1 | |
| 27 | 15 | 7-9 | — | 1-2 | -2 | 6 | 0 | |
| 32 | 24 | 9-15 | 1-2 | 5-6 | +3 | 10 | 1 | |
| 34 | 23 | 7-15 | 6-10 | 3-3 | +3 | 4 | 7 | |
| 37 | 16 | 5-10 | 1-5 | 5-5 | +5 | 5 | 10 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 9 | 4-6 | 1-1 | — | +3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | +3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 9 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 3-3 | -7 | 2 | 3 | |
| 8 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 | — | -2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 100 | 36-67 | 11-25 | 17-19 | 33 | 24 | ||
| DNP: J. Barker | ||||||||
DNP: J. Barker
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
54
16
Ast
24
Season series
LV leads series 1-0
MIN97@LV100todayLV@MINupcomingMIN@LVupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
174.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+13043%LV-15561%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
-1.0 since open
Total
174.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 30pp · 4th Quarter · 44.3
MINN. Howard
FGame leader · 32 min
22 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 32 minDouble-double
24 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
LV beat MIN 100-97. A. Wilson led with 24 PTS, 10 REB, 1 AST. LV outscored the other side 32-21 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 93% of ptsStarters(5)
90 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST
GS 70
Bench(5)
7 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
GS 6
LVstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 28 REB · 19 AST
GS 73
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJewell Loyd · makes free throw 1 of 3
Olivia Miles · makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
Olivia Miles · misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 21 | 30 | 20 | 26 | 97 |
| LV | 32 | 25 | 21 | 22 | 100 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · LV won 2
Q1
Williams 11
Gray 12
Q2
Miles 13
Wilson 8
Q3
McBride 5
Young 11
Q4
Miles 12
Loyd 9
Shooting comparison
49%
36-74
FG
54%
36-67
43%
9-21
3PT
44%
11-25
89%
16-18
FT
89%
17-19
Play-by-play · 377 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 97·LV 100
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 97·LV 100
+0.5pp
- Q4·0.4
Lynx offensive team rebound
MIN 97·LV 100
- Q4·0.4
Courtney Williams misses 37-foot floating jump shot
MIN 97·LV 100
+4pp
- Q4·3.5
Chelsea Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 97·LV 100
−2pp
- Q4·3.5
Chelsea Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 97·LV 99
+0.9pp
- Q4·3.5
Courtney Williams personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 97·LV 98
+6pp
- Q4·3.5
Chelsea Gray defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 97·LV 98
+12pp
- Q4·7.0
Olivia Miles misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
MIN 97·LV 98
+23pp
- Q4·20.5
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 97·LV 98
- Q4·20.5
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 97·LV 98
−12pp
- Q4·20.5
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 97·LV 97
+3pp
- Q4·20.5
Liatu King shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 97·LV 96
+17pp
- Q4·23.9
Aces Full timeout
MIN 97·LV 96
- Q4·24.5
Olivia Miles makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
MIN 97·LV 96
−19pp
- Q4·44.3
Jewell Loyd makes free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
MIN 94·LV 96
−10pp
- Q4·44.3
Jewell Loyd makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
MIN 94·LV 95
+10pp
- Q4·44.3
Jewell Loyd makes free throw 1 of 3BIG MOMENT
MIN 94·LV 94
+30pp
- Q4·44.3
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 94·LV 93
- Q4·44.3
(00:44.3) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Lynx] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIN 94·LV 93
−27pp
- Q4·44.3
Kayla McBride shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 94·LV 93
+14pp
- Q4·48.0
Liatu King enters the game for Anastasiia Olairi Kosu
·
MIN 94·LV 93
- Q4·48.0
Aces Full timeout
MIN 94·LV 93
- Q4·48.0
Olivia Miles makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
MIN 94·LV 93
+10pp
- Q4·48.0
A'ja Wilson shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 93·LV 93
−18pp
- Q4·48.0
Olivia Miles makes 4-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 93·LV 93
−7pp
- Q4·57.5
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
MIN 91·LV 93
−3pp
- Q4·1:00
Jewell Loyd misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 91·LV 93
−9pp
- Q4·1:20
Olivia Miles makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 91·LV 93
−7pp
- Q4·1:24
Lynx timeout
MIN 89·LV 93
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
LV
Home
36-74
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-67
49
FG %
54
9-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-25
16-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-19
16
Assists
24
10
Turnovers
11
Betting line
LV -3.5·O/U 174.5·MIN +130/LV -155
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
NaLyssa SmithLV · FeFG%.69599+- A'ja WilsonLV · CUSG%.32399+
- Natasha HowardMIN · FORB%.15099
Jackie YoungLV · GAST/TO3.396
Nia CoffeyMIN · FeFG%.60991
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.5%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
59.3%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
57.5%
P(LV win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
59.6%
P(LV win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.92 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+4.2pp
best edge · MIN · DraftKings
MIN
★ bestedge +4.2pp · implied 40.7%
LV
no live price
| Book | MIN | LV | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +136★ | -162 | +4.2 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
LV vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.3± 5.9medium
- Olivia MilesMIN18.2± 6.8medium
- Natasha HowardMIN17.8± 6.7medium
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.7± 5.0medium
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.5± 2.8medium
- Natasha HowardMIN7.2± 3.6medium
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.9± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV6.7± 3.0medium
- Olivia MilesMIN5.7± 2.7medium
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.2± 2.1medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.3± 1.4medium
- Cheyenne Parker-TyusLV0.8± 1.0low
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN1.9± 1.8medium
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.6± 1.1medium
- Olivia MilesMIN1.4± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
LV
50.8%
FG%
44.3
48.4%
39.4%
3PT %
33.0
36.4%
92.6
PPG
85.2
90.2
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
13.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.0