WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+10IND

IND

8-5

8575

CON

2-13

WNBASat, Jun 13FinalSeriesIND leads series 1-0VegasIND -8.5

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 85–75.

IND -8.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 170.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

IND · top performer

Caitlin Clark

G · #22

15.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CON · top performer

Leila Lacan

G · #47

13.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	27	10	3-5	—	4-4	+18	8	2
A. BostonC · #7	32	13	5-13	1-2	2-5	+16	11	5
K. MitchellG · #0	37	19	6-15	2-9	5-7	+11	2	5
L. HullG · #10	22	2	0-3	0-2	2-2	+12	6	2
C. ClarkG · #22	36	25	10-17	5-10	—	+15	3	5
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	10	0	—	—	—	-9	0	0
M. TimpsonF · #21	11	2	1-1	—	0-1	-5	5	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	18	11	4-5	3-4	—	-2	2	0
T. HarrisG · #52	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
R. JohnsonG · #3	3	3	1-1	1-1	—	-4	1	0
Team		85	30-61	12-29	13-19		38	19
DNP: G. VanSlooten, D. Dantas, J. Pissott, B. Hall

DNP: G. VanSlooten, D. Dantas, J. Pissott, B. Hall

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	14	7	3-6	1-1	—	-11	3	1
D. MillerF · #1	17	4	1-5	1-3	1-1	-17	1	1
B. GrinerC · #42	22	10	5-11	—	—	-9	2	4
S. RiversG · #22	27	9	4-10	1-4	—	-5	3	4
L. LacanG · #47	30	11	5-9	1-2	—	-6	1	7
Bench
A. MorrowF · #24	21	8	4-14	0-4	—	+7	5	2
R. BeersF · #15	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
N. AnglomaF · #33	9	1	0-1	—	1-2	-5	0	0
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	21	12	6-12	—	0-2	-7	7	1
K. BurkeG · #25	24	10	3-4	0-1	4-4	+7	4	0
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	14	3	1-3	1-2	—	-4	0	4
Team		75	32-75	5-17	6-9		26	24
DNP: H. Van Lith, G. Kneepkens, A. Jackson

DNP: H. Van Lith, G. Kneepkens, A. Jackson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

IND leads series 1-0

Jun 13

IND85@

CON75today

Jul 23

CON@

INDupcoming

Aug 28

CON@

INDupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND-41080%

CON+32024%

15· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -8.5↗SpreadBet IND -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

170.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowIND ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 3:56

IND

C. Clark

Game leader · 36 min

25 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST

CON

L. Lacan

Game leader · 30 min

11 PTS · 1 REB · 7 AST

How it ended

IND beat CON 85-75. C. Clark paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. IND outscored the other side 17-9 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 30 REB · 19 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

16 PTS · 8 REB · 0 AST

GS 13

CONstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

41 PTS · 10 REB · 17 AST

GS 34

Bench(6)

34 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND4th Quarter · 5:57 · 69-65

+15pp→ 84% WP

Leila Lacan · misses 25-foot three point jumper

CON4th Quarter · 2:31 · 74-71

+16pp→ 37% WP

Kelsey Mitchell · loose ball foul

CON4th Quarter · 3:56 · 74-71

+16pp→ 18% WP

Sophie Cunningham · enters the game for Lexie Hull

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	30	17	16	22	85
CON	29	9	22	15	75

Period scoring

IND won 3 · CON won 1

Clark 8

Nelson-Ododa 6

Mitchell 9

Burke 3

Clark 7

Lacan 5

Cunningham 11

Griner 4

IND

CON

Shooting comparison

IND

CON

49%

30-61

43%

32-75

41%

12-29

3PT

29%

5-17

68%

13-19

67%

6-9

Play-by-play · 390 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·2.1
Monique Billings defensive rebound
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·2.1
Aneesah Morrow misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·3.6
Aneesah Morrow offensive rebound
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·5.8
Charlisse Leger-Walker misses 26-foot three point jumper
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·7.3
Brittney Griner offensive rebound
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·10.7
Diamond Miller misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·22.2
Raven Johnson enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·22.2
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·22.2
Tyasha Harris enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·22.2
Diamond Miller makes technical free throw
IND 85·CON 75
Q4·22.2
Caitlin Clark technical foul
IND 85·CON 74
Q4·23.1
Sophie Cunningham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
·
IND 85·CON 74
Q4·44.1
Brittney Griner makes 13-foot jumper (Aneesah Morrow assists)
·
IND 82·CON 74
Q4·52.9
Sophie Cunningham makes driving layup (Aliyah Boston assists)
·
IND 82·CON 72
−0.8pp
Q4·1:15
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
IND 80·CON 72
Q4·1:16
Leila Lacan misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
IND 80·CON 72
−1pp
Q4·1:32
Aneesah Morrow enters the game for Saniya Rivers
·
IND 80·CON 72
Q4·1:32
Charlisse Leger-Walker enters the game for Kennedy Burke
·
IND 80·CON 72
Q4·1:32
Diamond Miller enters the game for Olivia Nelson-OdodaBIG MOMENT
·
IND 80·CON 72
−16pp
Q4·1:32
Sun Full timeout
IND 80·CON 72
Q4·1:34
Sophie Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 80·CON 72
−5pp
Q4·1:50
Kennedy Burke bad pass turnover (Monique Billings steals)
·
IND 77·CON 72
−4pp
Q4·2:06
Sophie Cunningham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
·
IND 77·CON 72
−3pp
Q4·2:13
Leila Lacan personal foulBIG MOMENT
IND 74·CON 72
−11pp
Q4·2:21
Sophie Cunningham defensive rebound
IND 74·CON 72
−2pp
Q4·2:23
Saniya Rivers misses 12-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
IND 74·CON 72
−6pp
Q4·2:30
Kennedy Burke makes technical free throwBIG MOMENT
IND 74·CON 72
+9pp
Q4·2:30
delay techfoulBIG MOMENT
IND 74·CON 71
−13pp

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

CON

Home

30-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-75

FG %

12-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-17

13-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

6-9

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

IND -8.5·O/U 170.5·IND -410/CON +320

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Sophie CunninghamIND · G
eFG%.59688
Kelsey MitchellIND · G
USG%.26287

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

11.0%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
27.5%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
26.3%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
28.5%
P(CON win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.42

CLV pp

Open price

+440

Close price

+400

Open no-vig

17.8%

Close no-vig

19.2%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.9pp

best edge · IND · DraftKings

IND

★ best

-520DraftKings

edge +9.9pp · implied 79.1%

CON

no live price

Book	IND	CON	Best edge
DraftKings	-520★	+350	+9.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CON vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Caitlin ClarkIND
19.6± 9.7medium
Kelsey MitchellIND
18.9± 3.7medium
Aliyah BostonIND
17.0± 9.7low

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowCON
10.2± 5.1medium
Aliyah BostonIND
8.5± 4.6low
Brittney GrinerCON
4.7± 2.6low

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.5± 2.4medium
Leila LacanCON
5.2± 3.0low
Saniya RiversCON
3.3± 2.1medium

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.3± 1.6low
Aliyah BostonIND
1.1± 1.7low
Saniya RiversCON
1.0± 0.9medium

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.7± 1.6low
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.6low
Aaliyah EdwardsCON
1.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

IND

league avg

CON

45.0%

FG%

◀

44.3

42.1%

32.6%

3PT %

◀

33.0

26.3%

89.9

PPG

◀

85.2

77.9

21.0

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.7

15.0

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · wehoop