DAL
8-5
POR
7-8
Recap · WNBA
ortland Fire held off Dallas Wings, 84–83. It came down to the final possession.
POR +3.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 167.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Arike Ogunbowale
G · #24
22
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
POR · top performer
Megan Gustafson
C · #17
16
Pts
6
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Portland Fire · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 13 | 5-10 | — | 3-5 | +3 | 14 | 2 | |
| 14 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | — | +6 | 2 | 2 | |
| 35 | 22 | 7-16 | 2-7 | 6-8 | +1 | 6 | 2 | |
| 32 | 18 | 7-17 | 3-8 | 1-1 | +7 | 4 | 3 | |
| 34 | 17 | 6-18 | 1-7 | 4-6 | +2 | 6 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 16 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | -13 | 1 | 2 | |
| 11 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -12 | 3 | 0 | |
| 24 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | +1 | 5 | 3 | |
| Team | 83 | 29-74 | 7-28 | 18-26 | 41 | 18 | ||
| DNP: L. Yueru, O. Sims, P. Bueckers, J. Quinerly, C. Verona | ||||||||
DNP: L. Yueru, O. Sims, P. Bueckers, J. Quinerly, C. Verona
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 20 | 6-14 | 6-10 | 2-2 | +2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 24 | 11 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 3-5 | +8 | 6 | 2 | |
| 26 | 16 | 7-11 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +3 | 6 | 4 | |
| 32 | 10 | 4-8 | 2-4 | — | +5 | 5 | 3 | |
| 27 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-3 | — | +2 | 5 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 13 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 7 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | -2 | 2 | 3 | |
| 6 | 2 | 0-1 | — | 2-2 | -8 | 1 | 0 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | — | -3 | 2 | 3 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | — | -1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 84 | 30-68 | 14-31 | 10-13 | 32 | 26 | ||
| DNP: N. Puoch, H. Winterburn | ||||||||
DNP: N. Puoch, H. Winterburn
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
44
18
Ast
26
Season series
POR leads series 1-0
DAL83@POR84todayDAL@PORupcomingPOR@DALupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DAL -3.5
Between — and 5
1.0pt· 6.2h
Total
167.5
Standard · +2.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
DAL-16662%POR+14042%30· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
167.5
-1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 43pp · 4th Quarter · 1.7
DALA. Ogunbowale
GGame leader · 35 min
22 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
PORM. Gustafson
CGame leader · 26 min
16 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
POR beat DAL 84-83. M. Gustafson led with 16 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST. Alysha Clark's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (43pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 32 REB · 13 AST
GS 55
Bench(3)
8 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 8
PORstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 26 REB · 18 AST
GS 52
Bench(5)
17 PTS · 6 REB · 8 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBridget Carleton · shooting foul
Alysha Clark · personal foul
Emily Engstler · makes free throw 2 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 13 | 24 | 24 | 22 | 83 |
| POR | 14 | 30 | 19 | 21 | 84 |
Period scoring
DAL won 2 · POR won 2
Q1
Fudd 7
Barker 5
Q2
Ogunbowale 10
Carleton 11
Q3
James 11
Barker 5
Q4
Ogunbowale 8
Engstler 6
Shooting comparison
39%
29-74
FG
44%
30-68
25%
7-28
3PT
45%
14-31
69%
18-26
FT
77%
10-13
Play-by-play · 421 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 83·POR 84
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 83·POR 84
+3pp
- Q4·0.6
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 83·POR 84
−0.7pp
- Q4·0.6
Arike Ogunbowale misses 26-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 84
+6pp
- Q4·1.7
Wings timeout
DAL 83·POR 84
- Q4·1.7
Emily Engstler makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 84
+42pp
- Q4·1.7
Fire offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 83
−34pp
- Q4·1.7
Emily Engstler misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 83
+34pp
- Q4·1.7
Arike Ogunbowale enters the game for Alysha ClarkBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 83·POR 83
−43pp
- Q4·1.7
Alysha Clark personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 83
+43pp
- Q4·1.7
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
DAL 83·POR 83
- Q4·4.8
Emily Engstler blocks Aziaha James 's 7-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 83·POR 83
+8pp
- Q4·11.6
Carla Leite makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 83
+16pp
- Q4·18.7
Alysha Clark enters the game for Arike Ogunbowale
·
DAL 83·POR 81
- Q4·18.7
Fire timeout
DAL 83·POR 81
- Q4·18.7
Azzi Fudd makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 81
+8pp
- Q4·18.7
Bridget Carleton shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 82·POR 81
−25pp
- Q4·18.7
Azzi Fudd makes 4-foot layup (Jessica Shepard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 82·POR 81
−9pp
- Q4·22.5
Wings Full timeout
DAL 80·POR 81
- Q4·22.5
Megan Gustafson makes 2-foot layup (Carla Leite assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 80·POR 81
+9pp
- Q4·36.2
Carla Leite defensive rebound
DAL 80·POR 79
+3pp
- Q4·40.0
Aziaha James misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·POR 79
+9pp
- Q4·47.1
Awak Kuier offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·POR 79
−9pp
- Q4·49.2
Azzi Fudd misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·POR 79
+9pp
- Q4·53.7
Azzi Fudd enters the game for Alysha Clark
·
DAL 80·POR 79
- Q4·53.7
Wings Full timeout
DAL 80·POR 79
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:01
Bridget Carleton makes 26-foot three point shot (Megan Gustafson assists)
·
DAL 80·POR 79
+2pp
- Q4·1:07
Alysha Clark loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·POR 76
+20pp
- Q4·1:07
Fire offensive team rebound
DAL 80·POR 76
+3pp
- Q4·1:08
Emily Engstler misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 80·POR 76
−4pp
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
POR
Home
29-74
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-68
39
FG %
44
7-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-31
18-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-13
18
Assists
26
10
Turnovers
12
Betting line
DAL -3.5·O/U 167.5·DAL -166/POR +140
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FDRB%.32899- Megan GustafsonPOR · CTS%.67497
Carla LeitePOR · GUSG%.28893
Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR · GeFG%.60289
Azzi FuddDAL · GeFG%.58680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.9%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
62.6%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
62.2%
P(POR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
60.6%
P(POR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.88 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+0.62
CLV pp
Open price
+185
Close price
+180
Open no-vig
33.6%
Close no-vig
34.3%
Market came to the model · Graded: hit
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+17.2pp
best edge · POR · DraftKings
DAL
no live price
POR
★ bestedge +17.2pp · implied 41.7%
| Book | DAL | POR | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -155 | +130★ | +17.2 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
POR vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.5± 8.7medium
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL14.8± 14.0low
- Jessica ShepardDAL14.2± 5.5medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.8± 4.2medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.1± 3.4medium
- Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR4.3± 3.5medium
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL6.0± 3.9medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.7± 4.3medium
- Carla LeitePOR5.4± 3.6medium
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR2.0± 1.2medium
- Awak KuierDAL1.2± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL1.1± 1.4medium
Steals
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.5± 1.7medium
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.3± 1.4medium
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.3± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
POR
45.7%
FG%
44.3
44.9%
33.6%
3PT %
33.0
33.7%
88.1
PPG
85.2
81.5
23.4
Assists / G
18.0
19.8
10.5
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.9