Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1POR

DAL

8-5

8384

POR

7-8

WNBASat, Jun 13FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -3.5

DAL · top performer

Arike Ogunbowale

G · #24

13.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Megan DiLeo

C · #17

16.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 43pp · 4th Quarter · 1.7

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	35	13	5-10	—	3-5	+3	14	2
M. SiegristF · #20	14	5	2-4	1-3	—	+6	2	2
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	35	22	7-16	2-7	6-8	+1	6	2
A. FuddG · #35	32	18	7-17	3-8	1-1	+7	4	3
A. JamesG · #10	34	17	6-18	1-7	4-6	+2	6	4
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	16	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	-13	1	2
A. SmithF · #8	11	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	-12	3	0
A. KuierF · #34	24	3	1-5	0-1	1-2	+1	5	3
Team		83	29-74	7-28	18-26		41	18
DNP: L. Yueru, O. Sims, P. Bueckers, J. Quinerly, C. Verona

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	31	20	6-14	6-10	2-2	+2	4	1
E. EngstlerF · #21	24	11	4-10	0-3	3-5	+8	6	2
GustafsonC · #17	26	16	7-11	0-2	2-2	+3	6	4
S. BarkerG · #3	32	10	4-8	2-4	—	+5	5	3
C. LeiteG · #0	27	10	4-11	2-3	—	+2	5	8
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	13	5	2-3	1-2	—	-1	0	0
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	14	7	2-5	2-3	1-2	-2	2	3
S. WilliamsC · #25	6	2	0-1	—	2-2	-8	1	0
K. SamuelsonG · #44	14	0	0-3	0-3	—	-3	2	3
T. OblakG · #7	13	3	1-2	1-1	—	-1	1	2
Team		84	30-68	14-31	10-13		32	26
DNP: N. Puoch, H. Winterburn

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

POR

Home

29-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-68

FG %

7-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-31

18-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 14

DAL83@

POR84today

Jul 23

DAL101@

POR97

Aug 26

POR@

DALupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -3.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

167.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

DAL-16662%

POR+14042%

30· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -3.5↗SpreadBet DAL -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

167.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat DAL 84-83. Gustafson led with 16 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST. Alysha Clark's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (43pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 32 REB · 13 AST

GS 55

Bench(3)

8 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST

GS 8

PORstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 26 REB · 18 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

17 PTS · 6 REB · 8 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL4th Quarter · 18.7 · 82-81

+25pp→ 81% WP

Bridget Carleton · shooting foul

POR4th Quarter · 1.7 · 83-83

+43pp→ 94% WP

Alysha Clark · personal foul

POR4th Quarter · 1.7 · 83-84

+42pp→ 92% WP

Emily Engstler · makes free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	13	24	24	22	83
POR	14	30	19	21	84

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · POR won 2

Fudd 7

Barker 5

Ogunbowale 10

Carleton 11

James 11

Barker 5

Ogunbowale 8

Engstler 6

DAL

POR

Shooting comparison

DAL

POR

39%

29-74

44%

30-68

25%

7-28

3PT

45%

14-31

69%

18-26

77%

10-13

Play-by-play · 421 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 83·POR 84
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 83·POR 84
+3pp
Q4·0.6
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 83·POR 84
−0.7pp
Q4·0.6
Arike Ogunbowale misses 26-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 84
+6pp
Q4·1.7
Wings timeout
DAL 83·POR 84
Q4·1.7
Emily Engstler makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 84
+42pp
Q4·1.7
Fire offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 83
−34pp
Q4·1.7
Emily Engstler misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 83
+34pp
Q4·1.7
Arike Ogunbowale enters the game for Alysha ClarkBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 83·POR 83
−43pp
Q4·1.7
Alysha Clark personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 83
+43pp
Q4·1.7
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
DAL 83·POR 83
Q4·4.8
Emily Engstler blocks Aziaha James 's 7-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 83·POR 83
+8pp
Q4·11.6
Carla Leite makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 83
+16pp
Q4·18.7
Alysha Clark enters the game for Arike Ogunbowale
·
DAL 83·POR 81
Q4·18.7
Fire timeout
DAL 83·POR 81
Q4·18.7
Azzi Fudd makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
DAL 83·POR 81
+8pp
Q4·18.7
Bridget Carleton shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 82·POR 81
−25pp
Q4·18.7
Azzi Fudd makes 4-foot layup (Jessica Shepard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 82·POR 81
−9pp
Q4·22.5
Wings Full timeout
DAL 80·POR 81
Q4·22.5
Megan Gustafson makes 2-foot layup (Carla Leite assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 80·POR 81
+9pp
Q4·36.2
Carla Leite defensive rebound
DAL 80·POR 79
+3pp
Q4·40.0
Aziaha James misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·POR 79
+9pp
Q4·47.1
Awak Kuier offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·POR 79
−9pp
Q4·49.2
Azzi Fudd misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·POR 79
+9pp
Q4·53.7
Azzi Fudd enters the game for Alysha Clark
·
DAL 80·POR 79
Q4·53.7
Wings Full timeout
DAL 80·POR 79
−0.6pp
Q4·1:01
Bridget Carleton makes 26-foot three point shot (Megan Gustafson assists)
·
DAL 80·POR 79
+2pp
Q4·1:07
Alysha Clark loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 80·POR 76
+20pp
Q4·1:07
Fire offensive team rebound
DAL 80·POR 76
+3pp
Q4·1:08
Emily Engstler misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 80·POR 76
−4pp

Betting line

DAL -3.5·O/U 167.5·DAL -166/POR +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ortland Fire held off Dallas Wings, 84–83. It came down to the final possession.

POR +3.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 167.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

DAL

POR

eFG%

shooting

43.9%

54.4%

TOV%

ball control

10.5%

14.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

30.8%

14.7%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

24.3%

14.7%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR · G
eFG%.60289
Azzi FuddDAL · G
eFG%.58680

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.1%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
65.2%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
69.4%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
65.6%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.62

CLV pp

Open price

+185

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

33.6%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.8pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

DAL

no live price

POR

★ best

+130DraftKings

edge +19.8pp · implied 41.7%

Book	DAL	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	-155	+130★	+19.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
21.0± 6.2high
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
15.9± 8.1high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.0± 4.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high
Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR
4.9± 1.4high

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Paige BueckersDAL
6.1± 2.3high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.9± 2.7high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.3± 1.5high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Megan DiLeoPOR
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.8± 1.3high
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Dallas WingsPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop