Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at LA?

The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+10LV

6-3

7969

4-5

WNBATue, Jun 2FinalSeriesLV leads series 2-1VegasLV -7.5

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

23.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LA · top performer

Rae Burrell

G · #12

12.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ LA

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:25

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	25	8	3-6	2-4	—	+24	6	0
N. SmithF · #3	21	7	3-5	—	1-4	-9	4	0
A. WilsonC · #22	34	25	10-20	1-3	4-7	+1	15	1
C. GrayG · #12	34	12	4-11	1-6	3-3	+3	4	11
J. YoungG · #0	36	16	7-17	2-5	—	+5	4	9
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	8	5	2-4	—	1-2	+10	4	2
B. TurnerF · #21	21	0	—	—	—	+16	4	1
K. BellF · #1	22	6	2-6	2-6	—	0	3	0
Team		79	31-69	8-24	9-16		44	24
DNP: J. Barker

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	31	12	3-10	0-1	6-6	-2	12	2
D. HambyF · #5	24	2	0-7	0-1	2-3	-12	6	2
E. WheelerG · #17	26	10	3-6	2-4	2-3	-11	0	1
A. AtkinsG · #7	29	9	2-13	1-6	4-4	-4	7	2
R. BurrellG · #12	33	22	8-14	2-4	4-6	-7	1	1
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	25	9	3-10	1-4	2-2	-6	8	3
JihyunF · #6	4	0	—	—	—	-6	0	0
T. LatsonG · #0	6	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	+3	2	1
C. GrayG · #2	21	3	1-4	0-2	1-1	-5	2	1
Team		69	20-65	6-23	23-27		38	13
DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

31-69

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

20-65

FG %

8-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-23

9-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LV leads series 2-1

May 10

LV105@

LA78

May 24

LA101@

LV95

Jun 3

LV79@

LA69today

Sep 23

LA@

LVupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

176.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LV-28574%

LA+23030%

15· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -7.5↗SpreadBet LV -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

+1.0 since open

Total

176.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LV beat LA 79-69. A. Wilson paced them with 25 PTS, 15 REB, 1 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LA vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 33 REB · 21 AST

GS 59

Bench(3)

11 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST

GS 8

LAstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 26 REB · 8 AST

GS 31

Bench(4)

14 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV1st Quarter · 3:44 · 9-8

+6pp→ 53% WP

A'ja Wilson · makes 15-foot pullup jump shot

LV1st Quarter · 1:47 · 14-8

+6pp→ 67% WP

Stephanie Talbot · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brianna Turner assists)

LA3rd Quarter · 7:25 · 43-38

+7pp→ 28% WP

Erica Wheeler · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dearica Hamby assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	14	23	27	15	79
LA	10	20	21	18	69

Period scoring

LV won 3 · LA won 1

Wilson 6

Burrell 4

Wilson 7

Burrell 10

Wilson 8

Burrell 6

Gray 7

Brink 5

Shooting comparison

45%

31-69

31%

20-65

33%

8-24

3PT

26%

6-23

56%

9-16

85%

23-27

Play-by-play · 399 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 79·LA 67
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 79·LA 67
Q4·2.5
Jackie Young offensive rebound
LV 79·LA 67
Q4·4.8
Chelsea Gray misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
LV 79·LA 67
Q4·25.2
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 79·LA 67
Q4·29.0
Rae Burrell misses 24-foot three point jumper
LV 79·LA 67
Q4·41.4
NaLyssa Smith makes 8-foot floating jump shot (Chelsea Gray assists)
· ·
LV 79·LA 67
−0.8pp
Q4·1:03
Erica Wheeler makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nneka Ogwumike assists)
·
LV 77·LA 67
+0.7pp
Q4·1:13
Chelsea Gray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
· ·
LV 77·LA 64
−1pp
Q4·1:31
Rae Burrell makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 74·LA 64
−0.9pp
Q4·1:31
Rae Burrell makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 74·LA 63
Q4·1:31
Stephanie Talbot shooting foul
LV 74·LA 62
+2pp
Q4·1:40
Double technical foul: NaLyssa Smith and Cameron Brink
·
LV 74·LA 62
Q4·1:40
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 1
LV 74·LA 62
+0.6pp
Q4·1:40
Erica Wheeler shooting foul
LV 73·LA 62
−1pp
Q4·1:40
A'ja Wilson makes running layup (Jackie Young assists)
·
LV 73·LA 62
−1pp
Q4·1:43
Stephanie Talbot defensive rebound
LV 71·LA 62
−0.7pp
Q4·1:45
NaLyssa Smith blocks Chance Gray 's 3-foot driving layup
· ·
LV 71·LA 62
−3pp
Q4·1:54
Cameron Brink defensive rebound
LV 71·LA 62
Q4·1:57
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 2 of 2
LV 71·LA 62
+3pp
Q4·1:57
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 71·LA 62
+0.9pp
Q4·1:57
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 71·LA 62
+1pp
Q4·1:57
Nneka Ogwumike shooting foul
LV 71·LA 62
Q4·2:04
Erica Wheeler loose ball foul
LV 71·LA 62
−3pp
Q4·2:04
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 71·LA 62
−2pp
Q4·2:05
Chelsea Gray misses 25-foot running jump shot
·
LV 71·LA 62
+2pp
Q4·2:08
Jackie Young defensive rebound
LV 71·LA 62
−1pp
Q4·2:15
Nneka Ogwumike misses 24-foot three point jumper
LV 71·LA 62
−3pp
Q4·2:23
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
LV 71·LA 62
+0.7pp
Q4·2:24
A'ja Wilson misses two point shot
LV 71·LA 62
+1pp

Betting line

LV -7.5·O/U 176.5·LV -285/LA +230

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 79–69.

LV -7.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 176.5 by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

eFG%

shooting

50.7%

35.4%

TOV%

ball control

11.6%

12.5%

OREB%

offensive glass

21.1%

18.2%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

13.0%

35.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989
Dearica HambyLA · F
ORB%.10687

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

29.0%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
39.5%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
40.7%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
42.6%
P(LA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.00

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+215

Close price

+250

Open no-vig

30.4%

Close no-vig

27.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at LA?: The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.7pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

★ best

-285DraftKings

edge +1.7pp · implied 71.0%

no live price

Book	LV	LA	Best edge
DraftKings	-285★	+230	+1.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LA vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.6± 7.7high
Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Nneka OgwumikeLA
17.9± 4.8high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.8± 4.0high
Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 3.1high
Dearica HambyLA
6.4± 2.5high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.7± 2.2high
Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Jackie YoungLV
6.3± 3.5high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.8± 1.3high
Cameron BrinkLA
1.4± 0.8high
Brianna TurnerLV
0.6± 0.8high

Steals

Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.2high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesLos Angeles Sparks

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop