Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at GS?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+18GS

POR

6-5

7795

6-3

WNBATue, Jun 2FinalSeriesGS leads series 1-0VegasGS -9.5

POR · top performer

Emily Engstler

F · #21

10.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Kayla Thornton

F · #5

16.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 4:36

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	30	11	4-6	2-4	1-1	-17	3	1
E. EngstlerF · #21	29	12	4-12	2-3	2-4	-9	8	1
N. PuochF · #13	13	0	0-2	0-2	—	-3	2	0
GustafsonC · #17	24	13	6-12	0-1	1-1	-8	8	2
C. LeiteG · #0	24	10	2-6	—	6-6	-3	1	7
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	-9	0	1
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	11	3	1-4	1-2	—	-14	0	0
S. WilliamsC · #25	9	7	2-2	1-1	2-4	+1	1	0
K. SamuelsonG · #44	12	2	1-4	0-3	—	+3	0	1
H. WinterburnG · #77	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	1	1
S. BarkerG · #3	23	8	3-5	2-4	—	-16	3	3
T. OblakG · #7	12	11	5-6	1-2	—	-12	1	2
Team		77	28-61	9-24	12-16		28	19

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	26	19	6-13	5-10	2-2	+21	8	0
G. WilliamsF · #1	27	8	4-13	0-5	—	+21	2	2
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	23	9	2-7	1-4	4-5	+21	1	3
K. StokesC · #41	20	6	2-3	2-3	—	+8	5	1
V. BurtonG · #22	23	10	3-5	2-2	2-4	+22	3	9
Bench
L. AmihereF · #3	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
J. SalaunF · #13	23	18	6-10	3-6	3-3	+5	4	1
T. HayesG · #15	13	1	—	—	1-2	-4	0	4
K. CharlesG · #6	13	7	3-6	1-3	—	-3	3	1
K. ChenG · #2	17	9	3-4	2-2	1-2	-4	0	2
N. MwenentandaG · #32	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	1
J. JocyteG · #4	13	8	3-8	2-5	—	+1	2	1
Team		95	32-69	18-40	13-18		28	25

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

Home

28-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-69

FG %

9-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-40

12-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 1-0

Jun 3

POR77@

GS95today

Aug 30

GS@

PORupcoming

Sep 19

POR@

GSupcoming

Sep 23

GS@

PORupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

159.5

Defensive · -5.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

POR+29525%

GS-37579%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -9.5↗SpreadBet GS -9.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

+2.0 since open

Total

159.5

-3.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat POR 95-77. K. Thornton led with 19 PTS, 8 REB, 0 AST. GS outscored the other side 35-16 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

46 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST

GS 33

Bench(7)

31 PTS · 6 REB · 8 AST

GS 18

GSstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

52 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST

GS 51

Bench(7)

43 PTS · 9 REB · 10 AST

GS 34

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	20	16	20	21	77
GS	21	35	18	21	95

Period scoring

POR won 1 · GS won 2

Engstler 5

Thornton 11

Carleton 6

Salaun 9

Oblak 7

Salaun 4

Gustafson 5

Zandalasini 4

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

46%

28-61

46%

32-69

38%

9-24

3PT

45%

18-40

75%

12-16

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 382 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 77·GS 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 77·GS 95
Q4·15.0
Serah Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Frieda Buhner assists)
· ·
POR 77·GS 95
Q4·29.9
Kaitlyn Chen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda assists)
·
POR 74·GS 95
Q4·40.1
Juste Jocyte defensive rebound
POR 74·GS 92
Q4·43.1
Holly Winterburn misses 33-foot three point jumper
POR 74·GS 92
Q4·1:00
Kaila Charles makes 6-foot two point shot (Kaitlyn Chen assists)
·
POR 74·GS 92
Q4·1:12
Serah Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
·
POR 74·GS 90
Q4·1:12
Fire offensive team rebound
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:12
Serah Williams misses free throw 1 of 2
·
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:12
Kaila Charles personal foul
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:19
Kaila Charles enters the game for Cecilia Zandalasini
·
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:19
Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:19
Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda enters the game for Kayla Thornton
·
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:19
Juste Jocyte enters the game for Gabby Williams
· ·
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:19
Fire offensive team rebound
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:22
Frieda Buhner misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:30
Nyadiew Puoch defensive rebound
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:34
Kayla Thornton misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:50
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·1:54
Nyadiew Puoch misses 26-foot three point jumper
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·2:14
Holly Winterburn defensive rebound
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·2:18
Janelle Salaun misses 25-foot running jump shot
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·2:23
Frieda Buhner lost ball turnover (Cecilia Zandalasini steals)
·
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·2:39
Gabby Williams makes driving layup (Janelle Salaun assists)
· ·
POR 73·GS 90
Q4·3:00
Luisa Geiselsoder makes 24-foot three point jumper (Holly Winterburn assists)
·
POR 73·GS 88
Q4·3:06
Kaitlyn Chen enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
POR 70·GS 88
Q4·3:06
Cecilia Zandalasini personal foul
POR 70·GS 88
Q4·3:17
Janelle Salaun makes 26-foot running jump shot (Veronica Burton assists)
·
POR 70·GS 88
Q4·3:22
Nyadiew Puoch lost ball turnover (Cecilia Zandalasini steals)
·
POR 70·GS 85

Betting line

GS -9.5·O/U 159.5·POR +295/GS -375

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries held off Portland Fire, 95–77. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

GS -9.5 cashed (won by 18). Total cleared the 159.5 OVER by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

eFG%

shooting

53.3%

59.4%

TOV%

ball control

18.1%

8.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

29.6%

31.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

19.7%

18.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Gabby WilliamsGS · F
USG%.27488

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.6%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
65.6%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
62.7%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
60.9%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-4.07

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+220

Close price

+270

Open no-vig

30.0%

Close no-vig

25.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at GS?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.3pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

POR

★ best

+295DraftKings

edge +14.3pp · implied 24.3%

no live price

Book	POR	GS	Best edge
DraftKings	+295★	-375	+14.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

GS vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high
Megan DiLeoPOR
14.2± 4.6high
Gabby WilliamsGS
14.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high
Kiah StokesGS
5.0± 1.9high
Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR
4.9± 1.4high

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 2.6high
Jordan HarrisonPOR
3.3± 1.1low

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.9high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Laeticia AmihereGS
0.6± 1.0high

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Portland FireGolden State Valkyries

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop