POR
6-5
GS
6-3
POR · top performer
Emily Engstler
F · #21
12
Pts
8
Reb
1
Ast
GS · top performer
Kayla Thornton
F · #5
19
Pts
8
Reb
0
Ast
Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 4:36
WNBA · Portland Fire at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 11 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | -17 | 3 | 1 | |
| 29 | 12 | 4-12 | 2-3 | 2-4 | -9 | 8 | 1 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | -3 | 2 | 0 | |
| 24 | 13 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 1-1 | -8 | 8 | 2 | |
| 24 | 10 | 2-6 | — | 6-6 | -3 | 1 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -9 | 0 | 1 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | — | -14 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-4 | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 | — | +3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 23 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-4 | — | -16 | 3 | 3 | |
| 12 | 11 | 5-6 | 1-2 | — | -12 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 77 | 28-61 | 9-24 | 12-16 | 28 | 19 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 19 | 6-13 | 5-10 | 2-2 | +21 | 8 | 0 | |
| 27 | 8 | 4-13 | 0-5 | — | +21 | 2 | 2 | |
| 23 | 9 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 4-5 | +21 | 1 | 3 | |
| 20 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-3 | — | +8 | 5 | 1 | |
| 23 | 10 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 2-4 | +22 | 3 | 9 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 18 | 6-10 | 3-6 | 3-3 | +5 | 4 | 1 | |
| 13 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | -4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 13 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-3 | — | -3 | 3 | 1 | |
| 17 | 9 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1-2 | -4 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3-8 | 2-5 | — | +1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 95 | 32-69 | 18-40 | 13-18 | 28 | 25 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
46
19
Ast
25
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
GS
Home
28-61
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-69
46
FG %
46
9-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
18-40
12-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-18
8
OR
9
20
DR
19
19
Assists
25
15
Turnovers
7
Season series
GS leads series 1-0
POR77@GS95todayGS@PORupcomingPOR@GSupcomingGS@PORupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
1.0pt· 6.2h
Total
159.5
Defensive · -5.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
POR+29525%GS-37579%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
+2.0 since open
Total
159.5
-3.0 since open
How it ended
GS beat POR 95-77. K. Thornton led with 19 PTS, 8 REB, 0 AST. GS outscored the other side 35-16 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
46 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST
GS 33
Bench(7)
31 PTS · 6 REB · 8 AST
GS 18
GSstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST
GS 51
Bench(7)
43 PTS · 9 REB · 10 AST
GS 34
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 20 | 16 | 20 | 21 | 77 |
| GS | 21 | 35 | 18 | 21 | 95 |
Period scoring
POR won 1 · GS won 2
Q1
Engstler 5
Thornton 11
Q2
Carleton 6
Salaun 9
Q3
Oblak 7
Salaun 4
Q4
Gustafson 5
Zandalasini 4
Shooting comparison
46%
28-61
FG
46%
32-69
38%
9-24
3PT
45%
18-40
75%
12-16
FT
72%
13-18
Play-by-play · 382 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 77·GS 95
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 77·GS 95
- Q4·15.0
Serah Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Frieda Buhner assists)
· ·
POR 77·GS 95
- Q4·29.9
Kaitlyn Chen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda assists)
·
POR 74·GS 95
- Q4·40.1
Juste Jocyte defensive rebound
POR 74·GS 92
- Q4·43.1
Holly Winterburn misses 33-foot three point jumper
POR 74·GS 92
- Q4·1:00
Kaila Charles makes 6-foot two point shot (Kaitlyn Chen assists)
·
POR 74·GS 92
- Q4·1:12
Serah Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
·
POR 74·GS 90
- Q4·1:12
Fire offensive team rebound
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:12
Serah Williams misses free throw 1 of 2
·
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:12
Kaila Charles personal foul
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:19
Kaila Charles enters the game for Cecilia Zandalasini
·
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:19
Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Janelle Salaun
·
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:19
Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda enters the game for Kayla Thornton
·
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:19
Juste Jocyte enters the game for Gabby Williams
· ·
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:19
Fire offensive team rebound
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:22
Frieda Buhner misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:30
Nyadiew Puoch defensive rebound
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:34
Kayla Thornton misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:50
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·1:54
Nyadiew Puoch misses 26-foot three point jumper
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·2:14
Holly Winterburn defensive rebound
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·2:18
Janelle Salaun misses 25-foot running jump shot
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·2:23
Frieda Buhner lost ball turnover (Cecilia Zandalasini steals)
·
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·2:39
Gabby Williams makes driving layup (Janelle Salaun assists)
· ·
POR 73·GS 90
- Q4·3:00
Luisa Geiselsoder makes 24-foot three point jumper (Holly Winterburn assists)
·
POR 73·GS 88
- Q4·3:06
Kaitlyn Chen enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
POR 70·GS 88
- Q4·3:06
Cecilia Zandalasini personal foul
POR 70·GS 88
- Q4·3:17
Janelle Salaun makes 26-foot running jump shot (Veronica Burton assists)
·
POR 70·GS 88
- Q4·3:22
Nyadiew Puoch lost ball turnover (Cecilia Zandalasini steals)
·
POR 70·GS 85
Betting line
GS -9.5·O/U 159.5·POR +295/GS -375
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Portland Fire, 95–77. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
GS -9.5 cashed (won by 18). Total cleared the 159.5 OVER by 12.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Four factors · this game
Who won the possession battle
Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.
PORGSeFG%
shooting
TOV%
ball control
OREB%
offensive glass
FT rate
free throws / FGA
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Kiah StokesGS · CAST/TO3.899+
Megan DiLeoPOR · CTS%.67497
Veronica BurtonGS · GAST/TO3.797
Carla LeitePOR · GUSG%.28893
Gabby WilliamsGS · FUSG%.27488
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.6%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
65.6%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
62.7%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
60.9%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.93 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
87% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+14.3pp
best edge · POR · DraftKings
POR
★ bestedge +14.3pp · implied 24.3%
GS
no live price
| Book | POR | GS | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +295★ | -375 | +14.3 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
GS vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 100 high confidence
Points
- Carla LeitePOR16.3± 6.3high
- Megan DiLeoPOR14.2± 4.6high
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.0± 6.8high
Rebounds
- Emily EngstlerPOR6.3± 3.3high
- Kiah StokesGS5.0± 1.9high
- Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR4.9± 1.4high
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR6.2± 2.8high
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 2.6high
- Jordan HarrisonPOR3.3± 1.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.9± 1.9high
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.3± 1.0high
- Laeticia AmihereGS0.6± 1.0high
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.7± 1.1high
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.7± 1.1high
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.7± 0.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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