Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+18WSH

CHI

3-6

7290

WSH

4-4

WNBATue, Jun 2FinalSeriesWSH leads series 1-0VegasCHI -1.5

CHI · top performer

Kamilla Cardoso

C · #10

16.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Kiki Iriafen

F · #44

11.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:55

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. StevensF · #30	19	7	3-7	1-2	—	-9	5	3
K. CardosoC · #10	33	12	6-13	—	—	-12	13	5
S. DigginsG · #4	27	14	3-6	2-2	6-7	-12	1	1
N. CloudG · #9	24	0	0-4	0-1	—	-19	0	3
J. SheldonG · #0	31	9	4-7	1-2	—	-11	0	1
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	23	10	4-10	—	2-5	-13	6	3
R. BanhamG · #24	18	5	2-4	1-3	—	-1	0	2
S. PoffenbargerG · #6	6	0	—	—	—	-2	3	0
S. TaylorG · #12	20	15	6-13	1-6	2-4	-11	1	1
Team		72	28-64	6-16	10-16		29	19
DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington, G. Jaquez

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. OnyenwereF · #12	22	13	5-6	1-2	2-2	+25	7	2
K. IriafenF · #44	27	15	4-11	1-3	6-10	+14	11	2
S. AustinC · #0	25	17	5-13	1-1	6-9	+17	8	1
C. McMahonG · #23	25	8	3-7	—	2-4	+6	2	4
G. AmooreG · #8	21	3	1-3	1-2	—	+21	1	2
Bench
A. DugalicF · #32	13	8	3-8	0-2	2-2	+1	7	1
L. BettsC · #51	15	8	4-8	—	—	+4	4	0
R. HarmonG · #3	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	1
L. OlsenG · #33	11	3	1-3	1-1	—	+5	1	2
C. ProsperG · #18	20	7	3-7	1-2	0-1	-3	5	0
A. FlorezG · #2	19	8	3-7	0-4	2-4	-2	0	3
Team		90	32-73	6-17	20-32		46	18

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

28-64

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-73

FG %

6-16

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-17

10-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Jun 2

CHI72@

WSH90today

Sep 18

WSH@

CHIupcoming

Sep 24

CHI@

WSHupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

161.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

CHI-13057%

WSH+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

-1.0 since open

Total

161.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat CHI 90-72. K. Iriafen led with 15 PTS, 11 REB, 2 AST. WSH outscored the other side 27-18 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

42 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST

GS 28

Bench(4)

30 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

WSHstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 29 REB · 11 AST

GS 44

Bench(6)

34 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI1st Quarter · 7:32 · 7-5

+6pp→ 45% WP

Azura Stevens · makes 25-foot running jump shot (Natasha Cloud assists)

WSH1st Quarter · 3:31 · 20-16

+6pp→ 50% WP

Alicia Florez Getino · makes free throw 1 of 2

CHI2nd Quarter · 8:55 · 27-25

+7pp→ 47% WP

Skylar Diggins · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Natasha Cloud assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	24	16	18	14	72
WSH	25	22	27	16	90

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · WSH won 4

Taylor 8

Getino 5

Cardoso 8

Austin 5

Banham 5

Iriafen 8

Diggins 6

Betts 6

CHI

WSH

Shooting comparison

CHI

WSH

44%

28-64

44%

32-73

38%

6-16

3PT

35%

6-17

63%

10-16

63%

20-32

Play-by-play · 453 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 72·WSH 90
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 72·WSH 90
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Sky] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
CHI 72·WSH 90
Q4·6.3
Lauren Betts makes 3-foot layup (Rori Harmon assists)
·
CHI 72·WSH 90
Q4·13.3
Angela Dugalic defensive rebound
CHI 72·WSH 88
Q4·15.6
Sydney Taylor misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
CHI 72·WSH 88
Q4·29.9
Rori Harmon bad pass turnover (Sydney Taylor steals)
·
CHI 72·WSH 88
Q4·33.9
Sydney Taylor makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot
CHI 72·WSH 88
Q4·48.7
Angela Dugalic bad pass turnover (Saylor Poffenbarger steals)
·
CHI 70·WSH 88
Q4·1:02
Cassandre Prosper enters the game for Michaela Onyenwere
·
CHI 70·WSH 88
Q4·1:02
Sydney Taylor out of bounds bad pass turnover
CHI 70·WSH 88
Q4·1:05
Angela Dugalic makes layup
CHI 70·WSH 88
Q4·1:05
Angela Dugalic offensive rebound
CHI 70·WSH 86
Q4·1:05
Lucy Olsen misses two point shot
CHI 70·WSH 86
Q4·1:22
Mystics defensive team rebound
CHI 70·WSH 86
Q4·1:22
Jacy Sheldon misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
CHI 70·WSH 86
Q4·1:29
Saylor Poffenbarger enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
·
CHI 70·WSH 86
Q4·1:29
Sydney Taylor enters the game for Skylar Diggins
·
CHI 70·WSH 86
Q4·1:29
Angela Dugalic enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
CHI 70·WSH 86
Q4·1:29
Rori Harmon enters the game for Georgia Amoore
·
CHI 70·WSH 86
Q4·1:29
Sky timeout
CHI 70·WSH 86
Q4·1:35
Lauren Betts makes 18-foot jumper (Georgia Amoore assists)
·
CHI 70·WSH 86
Q4·1:58
Skylar Diggins makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Rachel Banham assists)
·
CHI 70·WSH 84
Q4·2:03
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
CHI 67·WSH 84
Q4·2:05
Georgia Amoore misses driving layup
CHI 67·WSH 84
Q4·2:15
Lauren Betts defensive rebound
CHI 67·WSH 84
Q4·2:17
Elizabeth Williams misses 4-foot two point shot
CHI 67·WSH 84
Q4·2:34
Michaela Onyenwere bad pass turnover (Elizabeth Williams steals)
·
CHI 67·WSH 84
Q4·2:49
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 67·WSH 84
Q4·2:49
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 66·WSH 84

Betting line

CHI -1.5·O/U 161.5·CHI -130/WSH +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ashington Mystics held off Chicago Sky, 90–72. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

WSH +1.5 cashed (CHI lost outright). Total cleared the 161.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CHI

WSH

eFG%

shooting

48.4%

47.9%

TOV%

ball control

20.2%

15.5%

OREB%

offensive glass

14.7%

41.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

15.6%

27.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiki IriafenWSH · F
DRB%.30197
Shakira AustinWSH · C
DRB%.28195
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789
Jacy SheldonCHI · G
TS%.61075

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
68.5%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
64.5%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
63.5%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.19

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-130

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.5pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

CHI

no live price

WSH

★ best

+110DraftKings

edge +19.5pp · implied 45.7%

Book	CHI	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-130	+110★	+19.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Shakira AustinWSH
18.1± 5.5high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low
Sydney TaylorCHI
15.9± 6.3high

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
9.6± 3.5high
Kiki IriafenWSH
8.9± 3.6high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
7.8± 3.0high

Assists

Natasha CloudCHI
5.2± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
4.3± 3.1low

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.2high
Shakira AustinWSH
1.3± 1.2high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low

Steals

Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.2± 1.2low
Natasha CloudCHI
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Chicago SkyWashington Mystics

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop