WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+16ATL

CON

2-9

7591

ATL

6-2

WNBATue, Jun 2FinalSeriesATL leads series 1-0VegasATL -13.5

CON · top performer

Aneesah Morrow

F · #24

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Rhyne Howard

G · #10

27.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 3:36

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. MillerF · #1	26	8	2-6	0-3	4-4	-8	3	1
A. MorrowF · #24	30	20	7-12	2-5	4-7	-15	13	2
B. GrinerC · #42	29	7	3-8	—	1-2	-12	4	3
S. RiversG · #22	29	11	4-6	1-1	2-2	-5	1	2
L. LacanG · #47	28	11	4-13	1-6	2-4	-15	2	5
Bench
N. AnglomaF · #33	10	6	2-3	—	2-2	-6	0	0
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	11	10	3-3	—	4-8	-4	1	0
K. BurkeG · #25	18	2	1-3	0-1	—	-7	3	0
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	16	0	0-1	0-1	—	-11	0	3
G. KneepkensG · #5	5	0	—	—	—	+3	1	1
Team		75	26-55	4-17	19-29		28	17
DNP: A. Edwards, R. Beers

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	35	5	2-7	1-3	—	+13	7	3
A. ReeseF · #5	29	12	4-9	1-2	3-4	+23	13	5
A. GrayG · #15	36	26	9-17	3-9	5-7	+15	7	2
J. CanadaG · #3	36	12	5-8	1-3	1-2	+17	3	10
R. HowardG · #10	37	36	12-24	8-19	4-5	+18	2	2
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	3	0	0-1	—	—	+1	0	0
M. OkotC · #11	9	0	—	—	—	-6	2	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	8	0	0-1	—	—	+4	1	0
A. NyeG · #32	1	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
I. NivarG · #21	1	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
I. BorlaseG · #20	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	0	0
Team		91	32-68	14-37	13-18		35	22
DNP: B. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

26-55

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-68

FG %

4-17

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-37

19-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Jun 2

CON75@

ATL91today

Aug 13

ATL@

CONupcoming

Sep 17

CON@

ATLupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

160.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CON+70013%

ATL-110092%

150· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -13.5↗SpreadBet ATL -13.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

160.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat CON 91-75. R. Howard led the way with 36 points and 2 assists. ATL outscored the other side 23-10 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST

GS 43

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST

GS 11

ATLstarters 100% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 32 REB · 22 AST

GS 78

Bench(6)

0 PTS · 3 REB · 0 AST

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CON3rd Quarter · 3:56 · 61-56

+11pp→ 45% WP

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · makes driving layup (Saniya Rivers assists)

ATL4th Quarter · 10:00 · 65-68

+13pp→ 82% WP

Leila Lacan · enters the game for Diamond Miller

ATL4th Quarter · 3:36 · 69-77

+15pp→ 97% WP

Brittney Griner · misses driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	25	24	16	10	75
ATL	24	26	18	23	91

Period scoring

CON won 1 · ATL won 3

Lacan 6

Howard 11

Rivers 7

Howard 11

Miller 4

Reese 7

Morrow 9

Lacan 18

CON

ATL

Shooting comparison

CON

ATL

47%

26-55

47%

32-68

24%

4-17

3PT

38%

14-37

66%

19-29

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 387 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 75·ATL 91
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 75·ATL 91
Q4·17.2
Leila Lacan makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 75·ATL 91
Q4·17.2
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·17.2
Leila Lacan misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·17.2
Indya Nivar personal foul
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·24.2
Sun defensive team rebound
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·25.6
Isobel Borlase misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·41.3
Madina Okot defensive rebound
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·44.6
Diamond Miller misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·56.2
Indya Nivar enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·56.2
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·56.2
Sika Kone enters the game for Angel Reese
·
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·56.2
Madina Okot enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·56.2
Isobel Borlase enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·56.2
Sun Full timeout
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·56.2
Jordin Canada makes 23-foot running jump shot (Rhyne Howard assists)
·
CON 74·ATL 91
Q4·59.7
Aneesah Morrow bad pass turnover (Rhyne Howard steals)
·
CON 74·ATL 88
Q4·1:07
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
CON 74·ATL 88
Q4·1:10
Rhyne Howard misses 25-foot three point jumper
CON 74·ATL 88
Q4·1:28
Rhyne Howard defensive rebound
CON 74·ATL 88
Q4·1:31
Leila Lacan misses 25-foot three point jumper
CON 74·ATL 88
Q4·1:44
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 1
CON 74·ATL 88
Q4·1:44
Diamond Miller shooting foul
CON 74·ATL 87
Q4·1:44
Rhyne Howard makes running layup
CON 74·ATL 87
Q4·1:47
Leila Lacan bad pass turnover (Rhyne Howard steals)
·
CON 74·ATL 85
Q4·1:54
Diamond Miller enters the game for Saniya Rivers
·
CON 74·ATL 85
Q4·1:54
(01:54) [Sun] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
CON 74·ATL 85
+0.9pp
Q4·1:54
Jordin Canada personal foul
CON 74·ATL 85
−0.9pp
Q4·2:01
Allisha Gray makes driving layup (Angel Reese assists)
·
CON 74·ATL 85

Betting line

ATL -13.5·O/U 160.5·CON +700/ATL -1100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream held off Connecticut Sun, 91–75.

ATL -13.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 160.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

ATL

eFG%

shooting

50.9%

57.4%

TOV%

ball control

17.1%

14.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

10.3%

26.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

34.5%

19.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

87.9%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
89.4%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
89.9%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
87.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CON

no live price

ATL

no live price

Book	CON	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+700	-1100	+0.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Allisha GrayATL
19.7± 4.1high
Rhyne HowardATL
15.3± 6.9high
Angel ReeseATL
15.2± 7.2high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.7± 3.1high
Aneesah MorrowCON
8.6± 5.4high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.4± 2.9high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
8.1± 3.0high
Leila LacanCON
4.5± 1.6medium
Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON
4.2± 2.3high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high
Kennedy BurkeCON
0.8± 1.0high

Steals

Angel ReeseATL
2.2± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.2± 0.7high
Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Connecticut SunAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop