Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at NY?

The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7NY

PHX

2-7

6875

5-4

WNBAFri, May 29FinalSeriesNY leads series 2-0VegasNY -5.5

PHX · top performer

Alyssa Thomas

F · #25

13.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Pauline Astier

G · #18

15.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 45.8

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	36	15	5-14	—	5-6	-8	3	8
N. MackF · #4	28	6	3-5	—	—	-11	9	0
N. BrochantF · #1	21	2	0-4	0-4	2-2	-5	1	0
K. CopperG · #2	37	16	4-16	1-8	7-8	-4	3	1
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	29	13	5-8	3-4	—	-9	3	3
Bench
D. BonnerF · #24	22	4	0-3	0-2	4-4	-5	3	0
V. AyayiF · #11	3	0	0-1	—	—	+3	1	1
K. LinskensC · #31	12	4	2-4	0-1	—	+4	0	1
J. NogicG · #29	12	8	2-7	2-5	2-2	0	0	0
Team		68	21-62	6-24	20-22		23	14
DNP: S. Whitcomb, K. Williams, Q. Carter

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	29	9	4-11	1-4	—	+4	8	4
L. FiebichF · #13	30	3	1-6	0-2	1-1	+2	2	1
J. JonesC · #35	31	9	2-9	1-4	4-4	+8	9	2
M. JohannesG · #23	19	6	2-5	2-5	—	-6	2	1
P. AstierG · #18	31	16	6-8	1-1	3-4	+10	6	6
Bench
S. SaballyF · #0	10	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	+5	3	1
H. XuC · #21	17	9	4-7	1-2	—	+5	6	1
R. GardnerG · #7	15	6	3-5	0-1	—	+3	1	0
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	15	13	3-6	2-5	5-6	+2	3	2
R. AllenG · #9	3	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
Team		75	26-60	8-25	15-17		40	18
DNP: R. Carrera

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

Home

21-62

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

26-60

FG %

6-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-25

20-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 2-0

May 27

PHX74@

NY84

May 29

PHX68@

NY75today

Aug 1

NY@

PHXupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+18535%

NY-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -5.5↗SpreadBet NY -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

-1.0 since open

Total

170.5

-3.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat PHX 75-68. P. Astier led with 16 PTS, 6 REB, 6 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

52 PTS · 19 REB · 12 AST

GS 40

Bench(4)

16 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST

GS 7

NYstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

43 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 29

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX4th Quarter · 3:35 · 63-67

+11pp→ 30% WP

Pauline Astier · shooting foul

NY4th Quarter · 1:31 · 65-71

+11pp→ 95% WP

Kahleah Copper · misses 23-foot three point jumper

PHX4th Quarter · 45.8 · 68-71

+12pp→ 13% WP

Monique Akoa Makani · makes 25-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	11	20	23	14	68
NY	17	17	25	16	75

Period scoring

PHX won 1 · NY won 3

Makani 5

Johannes 6

Thomas 11

Laney-Hamilton 5

Copper 8

Jones 5

Copper 6

Astier 6

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

34%

21-62

43%

26-60

25%

6-24

3PT

32%

8-25

91%

20-22

88%

15-17

Play-by-play · 391 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 68·NY 75
+3pp
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 68·NY 75
Q4·0.8
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 68·NY 75
Q4·0.8
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 68·NY 74
Q4·0.8
Jovana Nogic enters the game for Monique Akoa Makani
·
PHX 68·NY 73
Q4·0.8
Monique Akoa Makani personal take foul
PHX 68·NY 73
Q4·2.9
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton defensive rebound
PHX 68·NY 73
Q4·3.6
Kahleah Copper misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 68·NY 73
+2pp
Q4·8.8
Han Xu enters the game for Pauline Astier
·
PHX 68·NY 73
Q4·8.8
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 68·NY 73
Q4·8.8
Pauline Astier makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 68·NY 73
−0.9pp
Q4·8.8
Pauline Astier makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 68·NY 72
Q4·8.8
Monique Akoa Makani personal take foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 68·NY 71
+5pp
Q4·15.9
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
PHX 68·NY 71
+2pp
Q4·17.0
DeWanna Bonner misses 33-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 68·NY 71
+9pp
Q4·24.4
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton bad pass turnover (Alyssa Thomas steals)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 68·NY 71
−5pp
Q4·45.8
Monique Akoa Makani makes 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 68·NY 71
−12pp
Q4·58.9
Pauline Astier lost ball turnover (Alyssa Thomas steals)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 65·NY 71
−6pp
Q4·58.9
Pauline Astier jump ball violation
PHX 65·NY 71
−3pp
Q4·1:06
Monique Akoa Makani personal foul
PHX 65·NY 71
+3pp
Q4·1:28
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
PHX 65·NY 71
+1pp
Q4·1:31
Kahleah Copper misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 65·NY 71
+11pp
Q4·1:45
Jonquel Jones personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 65·NY 71
−10pp
Q4·2:02
Jonquel Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 65·NY 71
−2pp
Q4·2:02
Jonquel Jones makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 65·NY 70
+10pp
Q4·2:02
(02:02) [Mercury] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Mercury] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 65·NY 69
−8pp
Q4·2:02
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 65·NY 69
Q4·2:02
Natasha Mack shooting foul
PHX 65·NY 69
+3pp
Q4·2:02
Jonquel Jones offensive rebound
PHX 65·NY 69
+4pp
Q4·2:02
Pauline Astier misses driving layup
PHX 65·NY 69
−4pp

Betting line

NY -5.5·O/U 170.5·PHX +185/NY -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty held off Phoenix Mercury, 75–68.

NY -5.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 170.5 by 27.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

eFG%

shooting

38.7%

50.0%

TOV%

ball control

11.2%

19.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

8.3%

25.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

32.3%

25.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.0%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
65.4%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
65.1%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
68.5%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.68

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+215

Close price

+190

Open no-vig

30.4%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at NY?: The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.4pp

best edge · PHX · DraftKings

PHX

★ best

+185DraftKings

edge +5.4pp · implied 33.6%

no live price

Book	PHX	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+185★	-225	+5.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 65 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
22.8± 6.8high
Kahleah CopperPHX
21.7± 6.1high
Sabrina IonescuNY
17.4± 8.3medium

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.5± 2.6high
Breanna StewartNY
8.3± 2.5high
Natasha MackPHX
7.4± 3.3high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.4± 2.0medium
Pauline AstierNY
3.6± 1.8high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.6± 1.2high
Natasha MackPHX
1.3± 1.1high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
1.3± 0.8high
Noemie BrochantPHX
1.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Phoenix MercuryNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop