Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHI?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+21MIN

MIN

6-2

7958

CHI

3-5

WNBAFri, May 29FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasMIN -4.5

MIN · top performer

Nia Coffey

F · #12

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Kamilla Cardoso

C · #10

10.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:00

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	29	14	6-11	0-1	2-2	+10	7	3
N. CoffeyF · #12	26	20	7-12	6-9	—	+20	8	2
K. McBrideG · #21	31	9	3-13	1-7	2-4	+16	5	2
C. WilliamsG · #10	29	10	5-10	0-1	—	+9	4	5
O. MilesG · #5	32	17	4-10	0-4	9-10	+20	6	6
Bench
L. KingF · #2	10	2	1-4	0-2	—	-1	3	0
A. DelaereF · #8	11	0	0-1	—	—	+5	0	1
A. KosuF · #7	5	2	1-2	—	—	+2	2	0
T. McCowanC · #15	10	0	0-2	—	—	+11	4	1
M. CaldwellG · #3	17	5	1-6	1-4	2-2	+13	4	0
Team		79	28-71	8-28	15-18		43	20
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. StevensF · #30	18	4	2-8	0-4	—	-13	1	2
K. CardosoC · #10	28	12	4-9	—	4-4	-27	13	1
S. DigginsG · #4	29	12	4-12	0-3	4-4	-18	5	3
N. CloudG · #9	31	6	1-7	1-5	3-4	-22	4	2
J. SheldonG · #0	20	5	2-5	1-3	—	-10	1	2
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	19	0	0-3	—	0-4	-7	5	1
R. BanhamG · #24	23	8	2-10	2-8	2-2	-12	7	0
A. CoulibalyG · #35	11	4	2-7	0-1	—	+5	3	0
S. PoffenbargerG · #6	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
S. TaylorG · #12	20	7	3-9	1-6	—	-1	2	4
Team		58	20-70	5-30	13-18		41	15
DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington, G. Jaquez

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

28-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

20-70

FG %

8-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-30

15-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 2-1

May 17

CHI86@

MIN79

May 23

MIN85@

CHI75

May 29

MIN79@

CHI58today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

172.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-19266%

CHI+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -4.5↗SpreadBet MIN -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

+2.0 since open

Total

172.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat CHI 79-58. N. Coffey led with 20 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 31-16 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 89% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

9 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST

GS 5

CHIstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

39 PTS · 24 REB · 10 AST

GS 20

Bench(5)

19 PTS · 17 REB · 5 AST

GS 7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN1st Quarter · 3:43 · 11-9

+8pp→ 63% WP

Sydney Taylor · enters the game for Jacy Sheldon

CHI2nd Quarter · 2:08 · 31-25

+7pp→ 25% WP

Natasha Cloud · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sydney Taylor assists)

CHI2nd Quarter · 1:00 · 33-28

+8pp→ 28% WP

Rachel Banham · makes 30-foot three point jumper (Sydney Taylor assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	19	14	31	15	79
CHI	12	18	16	12	58

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · CHI won 1

Miles 5

Diggins 4

Williams 4

Diggins 4

Coffey 9

Banham 5

Coffey 6

Cardoso 8

MIN

CHI

Shooting comparison

MIN

CHI

39%

28-71

29%

20-70

29%

8-28

3PT

17%

5-30

83%

15-18

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 419 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·18.0
5 second violation
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·18.0
Sky offensive team rebound
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·18.0
Liatu King blocks Elizabeth Williams 's 1-foot layup
· ·
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·27.2
Liatu King personal foul
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·37.0
Sydney Taylor defensive rebound
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·40.5
Liatu King misses two point shot
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·56.6
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·59.6
Maya Caldwell blocks Sydney Taylor 's 5-foot driving floating jump shot
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·1:08
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·1:08
Antonia Delaere enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·1:08
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Courtney Williams
· ·
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·1:08
Liatu King enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·1:08
Saylor Poffenbarger enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·1:08
Sydney Taylor enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·1:08
Jacy Sheldon enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·1:08
Aicha Coulibaly enters the game for Skylar Diggins
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·1:08
Sky Full timeout
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·1:08
Kayla McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Natasha Howard assists)
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
Q4·1:19
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
·
MIN 76·CHI 58
Q4·1:21
Rachel Banham misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIN 76·CHI 58
Q4·1:33
Olivia Miles makes 2-foot two point shot
MIN 76·CHI 58
Q4·1:45
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
MIN 74·CHI 58
Q4·1:47
Rachel Banham misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 74·CHI 58
Q4·1:59
Nia Coffey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Olivia Miles assists)
·
MIN 74·CHI 58
Q4·2:21
Skylar Diggins bad pass turnover (Kayla McBride steals)
·
MIN 71·CHI 58
Q4·2:28
Rachel Banham offensive rebound
MIN 71·CHI 58
Q4·2:30
Rachel Banham misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 71·CHI 58
Q4·2:34
Kamilla Cardoso offensive rebound
MIN 71·CHI 58

Betting line

MIN -4.5·O/U 172.5·MIN -192/CHI +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 79–58. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -4.5 cashed (won by 21). Total stayed UNDER 172.5 by 35.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

MIN

CHI

eFG%

shooting

45.1%

32.1%

TOV%

ball control

15.1%

17.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

15.8%

19.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

21.1%

18.6%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391
Olivia MilesMIN · G
TS%.65191

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

10.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
20.3%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
22.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
25.3%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.72

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-170

Close price

-192

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

63.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at CHI?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.3pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

-192DraftKings

edge +28.3pp · implied 63.1%

CHI

no live price

Book	MIN	CHI	Best edge
DraftKings	-192★	+160	+28.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHI vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
7.8± 3.0high
Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.2± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.2high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.2high
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Minnesota LynxChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop