May 12, 26sim 85
2077
3(H)72
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+21MIN
MIN
6-2
7958
CHI
3-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 375 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 79–58. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
MIN -4.5 cashed (won by 21). Total stayed UNDER 172.5 by 35.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Nia Coffey
F · #12
19.3Game score
20
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
CHI · top performer
Kamilla Cardoso
C · #10
10.3Game score
12
Pts
13
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN6-2
7958
CHI3-5
MIN6-2CHI3-5
MIN
6-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 29 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +10 | |
| 26 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +20 | |
| 31 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +16 | |
eFG%.47744 ORB%.02444 DRB%.12144 | ||||||||
| 29 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 32 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +20 | |
| 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 10 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +11 | |
| 17 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +13 | |
| Team | 79 | 43 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 14 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova | ||||||||
CHI
3-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 28 | 12 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -27 | |
| 29 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -18 | |
| 31 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -22 | |
| 20 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| 19 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -7 | |
| 23 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -12 | |
| 11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 20 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| Team | 58 | 41 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 17 | ||
| DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington, G. Jaquez | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
29
20
Ast
15
Season series
MIN wins series 2-1
May 17CHI86@MIN79
CHI86@MIN79May 23MIN85@CHI75
MIN85@CHI75May 29MIN79@CHI58today
MIN79@CHI58todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
Total
172.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN-19266%CHI+16038%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
+2.0 since open
Total
172.5
+1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:00
MINN. Coffey
FGame leader · 26 min
20 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
CHIK. Cardoso
CGame leader · 28 min
12 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
MIN beat CHI 79-58. N. Coffey led with 20 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 31-16 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 89% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST
GS 61
Bench(5)
9 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST
GS 5
CHIstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
39 PTS · 24 REB · 10 AST
GS 20
Bench(5)
19 PTS · 17 REB · 5 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN1st Quarter · 3:43 · 11-9
+8pp→ 63% WP
Sydney Taylor · enters the game for Jacy Sheldon
CHI2nd Quarter · 2:08 · 31-25
+7pp→ 25% WP
Natasha Cloud · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sydney Taylor assists)
CHI2nd Quarter · 1:00 · 33-28
+8pp→ 28% WP
Rachel Banham · makes 30-foot three point jumper (Sydney Taylor assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 14 | 31 | 15 | 79 |
| CHI | 12 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 58 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · CHI won 1
19
12
Q1
Miles 5
Diggins 4
14
18
Q2
Williams 4
Diggins 4
31
16
Q3
Coffey 9
Banham 5
15
12
Q4
Coffey 6
Cardoso 8
MIN
CHI
Shooting comparison
MIN
CHI
39%
28-71
FG
29%
20-70
29%
8-28
3PT
17%
5-30
83%
15-18
FT
72%
13-18
Play-by-play · 419 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·18.0
5 second violation
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·18.0
Sky offensive team rebound
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·18.0
Liatu King blocks Elizabeth Williams 's 1-foot layup
· ·
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·27.2
Liatu King personal foul
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·37.0
Sydney Taylor defensive rebound
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·40.5
Liatu King misses two point shot
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·56.6
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·59.6
Maya Caldwell blocks Sydney Taylor 's 5-foot driving floating jump shot
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·1:08
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·1:08
Antonia Delaere enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·1:08
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Courtney Williams
· ·
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·1:08
Liatu King enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·1:08
Saylor Poffenbarger enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·1:08
Sydney Taylor enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·1:08
Jacy Sheldon enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·1:08
Aicha Coulibaly enters the game for Skylar Diggins
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·1:08
Sky Full timeout
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·1:08
Kayla McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Natasha Howard assists)
·
MIN 79·CHI 58
- Q4·1:19
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
·
MIN 76·CHI 58
- Q4·1:21
Rachel Banham misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIN 76·CHI 58
- Q4·1:33
Olivia Miles makes 2-foot two point shot
MIN 76·CHI 58
- Q4·1:45
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
MIN 74·CHI 58
- Q4·1:47
Rachel Banham misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 74·CHI 58
- Q4·1:59
Nia Coffey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Olivia Miles assists)
·
MIN 74·CHI 58
- Q4·2:21
Skylar Diggins bad pass turnover (Kayla McBride steals)
·
MIN 71·CHI 58
- Q4·2:28
Rachel Banham offensive rebound
MIN 71·CHI 58
- Q4·2:30
Rachel Banham misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 71·CHI 58
- Q4·2:34
Kamilla Cardoso offensive rebound
MIN 71·CHI 58
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
28-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
20-70
39
FG %
29
8-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-30
15-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-18
20
Assists
15
14
Turnovers
17
Betting line
MIN -4.5·O/U 172.5·MIN -192/CHI +160
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
32.1%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
36%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+2.72
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-170
Close price
-192
Open no-vig
60.4%
Close no-vig
63.1%
Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit
Player projections
CHI vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN15.6± 11.3low
- Olivia MilesMIN15.1± 3.7low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.1± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.6± 3.4low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.6± 3.2low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.0± 1.0low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.7± 1.6low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.4± 1.8low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
CHI
50.1%
FG%
◀
44.6
41.1%
34.5%
3PT %
◀
32.6
25.9%
88.4
PPG
◀
85.4
82.8
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.3
15.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶11.0