Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+20ATL

ATL

5-2

8666

POR

5-4

WNBAFri, May 29FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasATL -8.5

ATL · top performer

Naz Hillmon

F · #00

16.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Carla Leite

G · #0

7.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 43.2

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	36	14	6-14	1-9	1-1	+19	7	4
A. ReeseF · #5	32	18	6-14	0-3	6-7	+18	12	5
A. GrayG · #15	30	13	3-12	3-7	4-4	+26	3	1
J. CanadaG · #3	27	9	2-4	0-1	5-5	+25	4	4
R. HowardG · #10	34	14	5-11	4-7	0-2	+19	2	4
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	5	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	0
M. OkotC · #11	7	7	3-3	—	1-1	+5	0	1
T. PaopaoG · #2	14	5	2-5	1-3	—	-9	0	1
A. NyeG · #32	1	0	0-1	—	—	+1	0	1
I. NivarG · #21	4	4	2-2	—	—	-1	1	0
I. BorlaseG · #20	10	2	1-1	—	—	-1	0	1
Team		86	30-68	9-30	17-20		29	22
DNP: B. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
E. EngstlerF · #21	18	10	4-9	2-4	—	-17	2	0
N. PuochF · #13	17	2	1-4	0-3	—	-8	1	1
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	22	6	2-7	1-5	1-2	-22	0	2
H. WinterburnG · #77	28	6	3-7	0-2	—	-24	3	7
C. LeiteG · #0	24	11	3-4	1-1	4-4	-11	1	4
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	14	7	2-2	1-1	2-2	-10	0	0
GustafsonC · #17	18	10	4-9	2-5	—	+2	5	1
S. WilliamsC · #25	20	0	0-3	0-1	—	+1	6	2
K. SamuelsonG · #44	19	0	0-2	0-2	—	-15	3	1
S. BarkerG · #3	21	14	6-9	2-3	—	+4	2	0
Team		66	25-56	9-27	7-8		23	18
DNP: B. Carleton, T. Oblak

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

POR

Home

30-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

25-56

FG %

9-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-27

17-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-8

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 30

ATL86@

POR66today

Jul 11

POR102@

ATL92

Aug 28

POR@

ATLupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -8.5

Between 7 and 10

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

163.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-36078%

POR+28526%

10· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -8.5↗SpreadBet ATL -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

-1.0 since open

Total

163.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat POR 86-66. N. Hillmon led with 14 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. ATL outscored the other side 27-13 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST

GS 64

Bench(6)

18 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST

GS 10

PORstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

35 PTS · 7 REB · 14 AST

GS 12

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR2nd Quarter · 6:15 · 18-21

+7pp→ 38% WP

Megan Gustafson · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)

ATL2nd Quarter · 4:38 · 25-23

+7pp→ 74% WP

Rhyne Howard · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naz Hillmon assists)

ATL2nd Quarter · 43.2 · 35-31

+9pp→ 80% WP

Rhyne Howard · makes 26-foot three pointer (Jordin Canada assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	16	22	21	27	86
POR	14	17	22	13	66

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · POR won 1

Reese 6

Engstler 6

Howard 9

Gustafson 5

Reese 7

Barker 8

Hillmon 7

Buhner 7

ATL

POR

Shooting comparison

ATL

POR

44%

30-68

45%

25-56

30%

9-30

3PT

33%

9-27

85%

17-20

88%

7-8

Play-by-play · 390 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 86·POR 66
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 86·POR 66
Q4·0.4
Indya Nivar defensive rebound
ATL 86·POR 66
Q4·7.3
Karlie Samuelson misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 86·POR 66
Q4·26.4
Indya Nivar makes layup (Aaliyah Nye assists)
·
ATL 86·POR 66
Q4·27.9
Karlie Samuelson kicked ball violation
ATL 84·POR 66
Q4·27.9
Luisa Geiselsoder kicked ball violation
ATL 84·POR 66
Q4·44.2
Frieda Buhner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Holly Winterburn assists)
·
ATL 84·POR 66
Q4·56.7
Indya Nivar makes running layup
ATL 84·POR 63
Q4·1:00
Karlie Samuelson bad pass turnover (Indya Nivar steals)
·
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·1:10
Holly Winterburn defensive rebound
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·1:14
Aaliyah Nye misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·1:26
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·1:26
Madina Okot enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·1:26
Isobel Borlase enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·1:26
Holly Winterburn out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·1:42
Holly Winterburn defensive rebound
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·1:47
Te-Hina Paopao misses 26-foot three point jumper
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·2:06
Frieda Buhner bad pass turnover (Rhyne Howard steals)
·
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·2:08
Fire offensive team rebound
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·2:10
Luisa Geiselsoder misses 22-foot three point jumper
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·2:19
Indya Nivar personal foul
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·2:35
Fire defensive team rebound
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·2:37
Rhyne Howard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·3:01
Luisa Geiselsoder makes 4-foot layup (Holly Winterburn assists)
·
ATL 82·POR 63
Q4·3:13
Karlie Samuelson defensive rebound
ATL 82·POR 61
Q4·3:26
Serah Williams enters the game for Nyadiew Puoch
·
ATL 82·POR 61
Q4·3:26
Sika Kone misses 20-foot jumper
ATL 82·POR 61
Q4·3:26
Frieda Buhner makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 82·POR 61
Q4·3:26
Sika Kone enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
ATL 82·POR 60

Betting line

ATL -8.5·O/U 163.5·ATL -360/POR +285

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream went into Portland Fire and beat them, 86–66. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -8.5 cashed (won by 20). Total stayed UNDER 163.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

ATL

POR

eFG%

shooting

50.7%

52.7%

TOV%

ball control

16.3%

32.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

41.4%

26.1%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

25.0%

12.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
49.1%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
51.5%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
51.1%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.00

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+410

Close price

+340

Open no-vig

18.8%

Close no-vig

21.8%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.7pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

ATL

no live price

POR

★ best

+295DraftKings

edge +15.7pp · implied 24.3%

Book	ATL	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	-375	+295★	+15.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Allisha GrayATL
19.8± 3.9high
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high
Angel ReeseATL
15.7± 7.4high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.7± 3.2high
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high
Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR
4.9± 1.4high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
8.1± 3.0high
Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Rhyne HowardATL
3.7± 1.3high

Blocks

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.8± 1.3high
Shatori Walker-KimbroughATL
0.6± 1.1low

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.4± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.2± 0.7high
Angel ReeseATL
2.0± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Atlanta DreamPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop