Jul 9, 25sim 95
871
11(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
ATL
38LiveHalftime
POR
31Updated 11:06 PM ET
HALFTIME+7ATL
ATL
4-2
3831
POR
5-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 369 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Updated 0s ago
ATL · top performer
Rhyne Howard
G · #10
8.8Game score
9
Pts
0
Reb
1
Ast
POR · top performer
Holly Winterburn
G · #77
6.1Game score
6
Pts
0
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Portland Fire · live
WNBA · Box score
Halftime
ATL4-2
3831
POR5-3
ATL4-2POR5-3
ATL
4-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 17 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +5 | |
| 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 17 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 15 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| Team | 38 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 11 | ||
| DNP: B. Jones, A. Nye | ||||||||
POR
5-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -7 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 12 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 14 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +5 | |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| Team | 31 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 14 | ||
| DNP: B. Carleton, T. Oblak | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
45
9
Ast
8
Season series
May 30ATL@PORtoday
ATL@PORtodayJul 11POR@ATLupcoming
POR@ATLupcomingAug 28POR@ATLupcoming
POR@ATLupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -8.5
Between 7 and 10
1.0pt· 6.3h
Total
163.5
Standard · -1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ATL-36078%POR+28526%10· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
-1.0 since open
Total
163.5
-2.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
HalftimeGame flowATL ↔ POR
Recent swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 43.2
Just happened
End of the 2nd Quarter
ATLR. Howard
GLeading · Halftime · 15 min
9 PTS · 0 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 24 PTS · 0 REB · 3 AST
PORH. Winterburn
GLeading · Halftime · 12 min
6 PTS · 0 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 20 PTS · 0 REB · 3 AST
How it's going
ATL lead POR 38-31 (Halftime). R. Howard led with 9 PTS, 0 REB, 1 AST.
Win probability
POR vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
31 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST
GS 27
Bench(5)
7 PTS · 0 REB · 1 AST
GS 0
PORstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
22 PTS · 3 REB · 6 AST
GS 6
Bench(5)
9 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPOR2nd Quarter · 6:15 · 18-21
+7pp→ 38% WP
Megan Gustafson · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)
ATL2nd Quarter · 4:38 · 25-23
+7pp→ 74% WP
Rhyne Howard · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naz Hillmon assists)
ATL2nd Quarter · 43.2 · 35-31
+9pp→ 80% WP
Rhyne Howard · makes 26-foot three pointer (Jordin Canada assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 16 | 22 | 38 |
| POR | 14 | 17 | 31 |
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · POR won 0
16
14
Q1
Reese 6
Engstler 6
22
17
Q2
Howard 9
Gustafson 5
ATL
POR
Shooting comparison
ATL
POR
43%
13-30
FG
45%
13-29
33%
5-15
3PT
31%
4-13
88%
7-8
FT
100%
1-1
Play-by-play · 188 plays
period
event
player
- Q2·0.0
End of the 2nd Quarter
ATL 38·POR 31
+0.9pp
- Q2·0.1
Angel Reese offensive rebound
ATL 38·POR 31
−1pp
- Q2·0.1
Allisha Gray misses running layup
ATL 38·POR 31
+2pp
- Q2·3.6
Emily Engstler bad pass turnover (Naz Hillmon steals)
·
ATL 38·POR 31
−1pp
- Q2·5.6
Indya Nivar enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
ATL 38·POR 31
- Q2·6.4
Rhyne Howard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
ATL 38·POR 31
−6pp
- Q2·27.4
Carla Leite offensive foul turnover
ATL 35·POR 31
- Q2·27.4
Carla Leite offensive charge
ATL 35·POR 31
- Q2·43.2
Rhyne Howard makes 26-foot three pointer (Jordin Canada assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 35·POR 31
−9pp
- Q2·53.4
Holly Winterburn makes layup (Luisa Geiselsoder assists)
·
ATL 32·POR 31
+5pp
- Q2·1:07
Angel Reese makes 8-foot turnaround jump shot (Jordin Canada assists)
·
ATL 32·POR 29
−5pp
- Q2·1:31
Sarah Ashlee Barker makes 3-foot layup (Luisa Geiselsoder assists)
·
ATL 30·POR 29
+5pp
- Q2·1:44
Jordin Canada enters the game for Isobel Borlase
·
ATL 30·POR 27
- Q2·1:44
Rhyne Howard enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
ATL 30·POR 27
- Q2·1:44
Angel Reese out of bounds lost ball turnover
ATL 30·POR 27
+2pp
- Q2·1:52
Sarah Ashlee Barker makes 8-foot two point shot
ATL 30·POR 27
+4pp
- Q2·2:13
Isobel Borlase out of bounds lost ball turnover
ATL 30·POR 25
+0.7pp
- Q2·2:22
Emily Engstler out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 30·POR 25
−0.7pp
- Q2·2:28
Isobel Borlase makes 11-foot step back jumpshot (Allisha Gray assists)
·
ATL 30·POR 25
−4pp
- Q2·2:47
Emily Engstler back court turnover
ATL 28·POR 25
−2pp
- Q2·2:59
Naz Hillmon enters the game for Madina Okot
·
ATL 28·POR 25
- Q2·2:59
Luisa Geiselsoder enters the game for Megan Gustafson
·
ATL 28·POR 25
- Q2·2:59
Dream Full timeout
ATL 28·POR 25
- Q2·2:59
Madina Okot traveling turnover
ATL 28·POR 25
+2pp
- Q2·3:13
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
ATL 28·POR 25
- Q2·3:13
Carla Leite enters the game for Karlie Samuelson
·
ATL 28·POR 25
- Q2·3:13
Emily Engstler out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 28·POR 25
−2pp
- Q2·3:28
Jordin Canada bad pass turnover (Karlie Samuelson steals)
·
ATL 28·POR 25
+2pp
- Q2·3:40
Emily Engstler makes 3-foot two point shot
ATL 28·POR 25
+4pp
- Q2·3:49
Madina Okot makes free throw 1 of 1
ATL 28·POR 23
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
POR
Home
13-30
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
13-29
43
FG %
45
5-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-13
7-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
1-1
9
Assists
8
11
Turnovers
14
Betting line
ATL -8.5·O/U 163.5·ATL -360/POR +285
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q2away leadsPOR leads
Key moments · live
newest firstEnsemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
28.1%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
38%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
31%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+3.00
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+410
Close price
+340
Open no-vig
18.8%
Close no-vig
21.8%
Market steamed in our direction
Player props
Player projections
POR vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL17.3± 12.0low
- Carla LeitePOR15.1± 6.9low
- Bridget CarletonPOR14.6± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.5± 5.2low
- Madina OkotATL5.6± 5.0low
- Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR4.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.8± 5.0low
- Carla LeitePOR4.0± 3.5low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.7± 3.4low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR2.3± 1.9low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.7± 1.3low
Steals
- Bridget CarletonPOR2.0± 1.5low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.8± 3.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL1.7± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team rate stats
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
POR
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶45.1%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶33.9%
83.5
PPG
86.0
83.8
19.5
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.4
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.5