Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at WSH?

The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5LA

4-3

9287

WSH

3-4

WNBAFri, May 29FinalSeriesLA leads series 1-0VegasWSH -2.5

LA · top performer

Dearica Hamby

F · #5

19.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Shakira Austin

C · #0

21.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLA ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 15.8

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	33	20	8-17	1-3	3-5	+4	11	2
D. HambyF · #5	30	14	4-9	0-2	6-8	0	7	9
E. WheelerG · #17	35	21	8-16	1-4	4-4	+8	2	8
A. AtkinsG · #7	29	8	4-5	—	—	-2	2	2
R. BurrellG · #12	32	4	2-8	0-5	0-1	-5	2	1
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	17	16	5-7	2-3	4-4	+6	2	1
JihyunF · #6	6	0	—	—	0-2	+5	0	0
T. LatsonG · #0	5	3	0-1	—	3-4	-3	0	0
C. GrayG · #2	13	6	2-3	2-3	—	+12	3	0
Team		92	33-66	6-20	20-28		29	23
DNP: E. Cannon

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. OnyenwereF · #12	24	4	1-5	1-4	1-4	+2	3	3
K. IriafenF · #44	27	13	6-10	0-1	1-2	+2	9	1
S. AustinC · #0	25	25	8-10	—	9-9	+2	10	3
S. CitronG · #22	37	21	7-10	2-4	5-6	-1	1	8
G. AmooreG · #8	23	1	0-7	0-6	1-2	-12	1	3
Bench
A. DugalicF · #32	17	6	3-3	—	—	-12	5	1
L. BettsC · #51	10	2	1-3	—	—	-2	1	0
C. McMahonG · #23	5	5	2-2	1-1	0-2	-2	0	0
C. ProsperG · #18	6	5	2-2	1-1	—	+3	0	0
A. FlorezG · #2	25	5	1-9	0-5	3-4	-5	1	7
Team		87	31-61	5-22	20-29		31	26
DNP: R. Harmon, L. Olsen, A. Wilson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

33-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-61

FG %

6-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-22

20-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LA leads series 1-0

May 29

LA92@

WSH87today

Aug 15

LA@

WSHupcoming

Aug 29

WSH@

LAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

164.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

LA+12045%

WSH-14259%

7· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -2.5↗SpreadBet WSH -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

+1.0 since open

Total

164.5

-3.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat WSH 92-87. D. Hamby led with 14 PTS, 7 REB, 9 AST. LA outscored the other side 21-12 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs LA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LAstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 24 REB · 22 AST

GS 53

Bench(4)

25 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST

GS 17

WSHstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 7 REB · 8 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LA4th Quarter · 1:51 · 84-81

+16pp→ 68% WP

Nneka Ogwumike · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Erica Wheeler assists)

WSH4th Quarter · 1:22 · 84-81

+15pp→ 25% WP

Erica Wheeler · misses two point shot

LA4th Quarter · 15.8 · 88-87

+19pp→ 89% WP

Sonia Citron · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LA	21	21	27	23	92
WSH	25	12	24	26	87

Period scoring

LA won 2 · WSH won 2

Hamby 5

Austin 7

Brink 10

McMahon 5

Ogwumike 7

Austin 9

Wheeler 14

Austin 9

WSH

Shooting comparison

WSH

50%

33-66

51%

31-61

30%

6-20

3PT

23%

5-22

71%

20-28

69%

20-29

Play-by-play · 424 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 92·WSH 87
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 92·WSH 87
Q4·0.0
Mystics offensive team rebound
LA 92·WSH 87
Q4·0.0
Alicia Florez Getino misses running pullup jump shot
LA 92·WSH 87
−0.9pp
Q4·4.3
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 92·WSH 87
Q4·4.3
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 91·WSH 87
Q4·4.3
Alicia Florez Getino personal take foul
LA 90·WSH 87
−2pp
Q4·5.5
Sparks Full timeout
LA 90·WSH 87
Q4·5.5
Sparks defensive team rebound
LA 90·WSH 87
−2pp
Q4·6.3
Kiki Iriafen misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LA 90·WSH 87
−11pp
Q4·15.8
Mystics timeout
LA 90·WSH 87
Q4·15.8
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 90·WSH 87
+6pp
Q4·15.8
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 89·WSH 87
−2pp
Q4·15.8
Sonia Citron personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LA 88·WSH 87
−19pp
Q4·21.0
Shakira Austin makes layup (Michaela Onyenwere assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 88·WSH 87
+9pp
Q4·29.8
Mystics Full timeout
LA 88·WSH 85
Q4·29.8
Erica Wheeler makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
LA 88·WSH 85
−11pp
Q4·36.5
Sparks Full timeout
LA 86·WSH 85
−0.8pp
Q4·44.0
Sonia Citron makes 3-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
LA 86·WSH 85
+9pp
Q4·48.4
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
LA 86·WSH 83
+2pp
Q4·50.1
Rae Burrell misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
LA 86·WSH 83
+6pp
Q4·1:04
Sonia Citron makes 3-foot two point shot (Alicia Florez Getino assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 86·WSH 83
+5pp
Q4·1:10
Erica Wheeler makes 7-foot two point shot (Dearica Hamby assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 86·WSH 81
−6pp
Q4·1:18
Chance Gray offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 84·WSH 81
−7pp
Q4·1:22
Erica Wheeler misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
LA 84·WSH 81
+15pp
Q4·1:29
Michaela Onyenwere personal foulBIG MOMENT
LA 84·WSH 81
−13pp
Q4·1:39
Shakira Austin bad pass turnover (Dearica Hamby steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 84·WSH 81
−9pp
Q4·1:51
Mystics Full timeout
LA 84·WSH 81
Q4·1:51
Nneka Ogwumike makes 24-foot three point jumper (Erica Wheeler assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 84·WSH 81
−16pp
Q4·2:07
Shakira Austin makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 81·WSH 81
−7pp

Betting line

WSH -2.5·O/U 164.5·LA +120/WSH -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

os Angeles Sparks went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 92–87.

LA +2.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total cleared the 164.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

WSH

eFG%

shooting

54.5%

54.9%

TOV%

ball control

15.2%

16.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

27.3%

25.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

30.3%

32.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiki IriafenWSH · F
DRB%.30197
Shakira AustinWSH · C
DRB%.28195
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989
Dearica HambyLA · F
ORB%.10687
Sonia CitronWSH · G
TS%.63984

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

31.1%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
45.7%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
41.2%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
40.7%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.87

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at WSH?: The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.9pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

★ best

+120DraftKings

edge +20.9pp · implied 43.7%

WSH

no live price

Book	LA	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	+120★	-142	+20.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Nneka OgwumikeLA
17.9± 4.8high
Shakira AustinWSH
16.8± 5.6high

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
9.8± 3.7high
Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 3.1high
Kiki IriafenWSH
9.0± 3.6high

Assists

Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Erica WheelerLA
5.9± 2.2high
Nneka OgwumikeLA
3.8± 2.1high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.6± 1.3high
Cameron BrinkLA
1.4± 0.8high
Lauren BettsWSH
0.8± 1.2high

Steals

Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.2high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high
Kelsey PlumLA
1.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Los Angeles SparksWashington Mystics

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop