Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

50-26-6

MTL

48-24-10

NHLSun, Apr 26FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTB -118

TB · top performer

Brandon Hagel

LW · #38

2Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Zack Bolduc

RW · #76

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	8:18
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	1	0	2	3	0	18:58
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	8:46
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	10:44
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	12:46
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	1	1	2	1	0	2	22:40
B. HagelLW · #38	2	0	1	3	2	1	2	25:34
D. JamesC · #17	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	11:25
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	2	1	3	0	0	2	22:57
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	7:33
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:50
B. PointC · #21	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	19:37
M. CrozierD · #24	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	11:54
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:43
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	20:22
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	2	1	1	0	2	0	19:33
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	1	1	3	2	1	2	25:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	18	2	16	.889	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	13:18
Z. BolducRW · #76	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	11:53
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	0	-1	2	2	0	0	19:03
K. DachC · #77	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	9:51
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:02
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:29
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	0	5	1	2	15:49
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	7:32
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	15:47
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	18:46
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	1	-1	3	4	4	0	22:23
A. TexierLW · #85	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	21:24
K. GuhleD · #21	0	1	0	1	11	2	0	22:48
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	-1	1	1	3	0	26:15
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-1	2	3	2	4	23:08
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	9:24
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	1	0	6	0	2	8:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	20	3	17	.850	58:17

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

14.3

PCT

16.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2today

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0

May 3

MTL2@

TB1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-11854%

MTL-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 69 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat MTL 3-2. B. Hagel led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	0	1	2	3
MTL	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

TB won 1 · MTL won 1

MTL

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·19:50
Cole Caufield hit Nikita Kucherov
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·19:44
Lane Hutson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·19:38
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·19:32
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·19:32
Puck in Netting
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·19:31
Nick Suzuki Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·19:12
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·19:09
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·19:03
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·18:56
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·18:37
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·18:37
Timeout - Home
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·18:37
Goalie Stopped
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·18:35
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:58
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:58
Off-side
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:53
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:53
Puck Frozen - Goalie
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:44
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:44
Puck in Netting
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:42
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:27
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:27
TV Timeout
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:27
Nikita Kucherov Slashing against Mike Matheson
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:23
Mike Matheson hit Nikita Kucherov
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·17:10
Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot Short
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·16:02
Josh Anderson hit Dominic James
·
TB 3·MTL 2
3rd·15:45
Brandon Hagel hit Alexandre Carrier
·
TB 3·MTL 2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·TB -118/MTL -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 3–2.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(MTL win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.6%
P(MTL win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
57.2%
P(MTL win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MTL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningMontreal Canadiens

Elsewhere in the NHL