Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ANA

EDM

41-30-11

ANA

43-33-6

NHLSun, Apr 26FinalSeriesEDM wins series 2-1VegasEDM -135

EDM · top performer

Evan Bouchard

D · #2

2Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	15:29
L. DraisaitlC · #29	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	21:45
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	-2	3	4	0	0	9:21
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	15:45
K. KapanenRW · #42	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	19:08
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	9:01
C. McDavidC · #97	0	2	0	3	1	0	0	19:32
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	17:39
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	17:10
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	13:18
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	7:31
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	15:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	1	1	0	3	1	1	0	22:56
M. EkholmD · #14	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	19:33
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	14:32
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	24:57
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	-1	2	0	3	0	24:55
J. WalmanD · #96	0	1	0	0	1	1	4	17:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. JarryG · #35	38	4	34	.895	62:29

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	1	0	4	1	0	0	15:48
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	0	0	5	4	0	0	17:25
M. GranlundC · #64	1	0	-1	2	4	1	0	20:37
A. KillornLW · #17	0	1	-1	2	1	0	0	22:17
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	14:52
M. McTavishC · #23	0	1	1	3	4	1	2	16:20
R. PoehlingC · #25	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	13:09
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-1	5	0	2	0	22:38
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:36
J. VielLW · #28	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	12:08
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	12:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	2	0	2	1	2	0	25:46
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:43
T. HindsD · #60	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	7:25
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	2	1	2	2	1	2	29:54
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	22:29
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	9:26
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	24:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	27	3	24	.889	62:10

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

ANA leads series 3-1

Apr 21

ANA3@

EDM4

Apr 23

ANA6@

EDM4

Apr 25

EDM4@

ANA6

Apr 27

EDM3@

ANA4today

Apr 29

ANA1@

EDM4

May 1

EDM2@

ANA5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM-13557%

ANA+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 115 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat EDM 4-3. C. Gauthier led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
EDM	2	0	1	0	3
ANA	0	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

EDM won 1 · ANA won 2

EDM

ANA

Play-by-play · 353 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·2:29
Game End
EDM 3·ANA 4
1st OT·2:29
End of OT
EDM 3·ANA 4
1st OT·2:29
Video Review
EDM 3·ANA 4
1st OT·2:29
Ryan Poehling Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (1)
·
EDM 3·ANA 4
1st OT·2:18
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Curtis Lazar
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
1st OT·2:18
Icing
EDM 3·ANA 3
1st OT·1:37
Ian Moore hit Mattias Ekholm
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
1st OT·1:31
Tim Washe hit Matt Savoie
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
1st OT·1:26
Tim Washe faceoff won against Connor McDavid
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
1st OT·1:26
Goalie Stopped
EDM 3·ANA 3
1st OT·1:24
Cutter Gauthier Snap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
1st OT·0:20
Mikael Granlund Tip-In Wide Left
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
1st OT·0:16
Alex Killorn Backhand Wide Left
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
1st OT·0:00
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
1st OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·19:20
Leo Carlsson Wrist Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·19:18
Jackson LaCombe shot blocked by Matt Savoie
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·19:06
Matt Savoie Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·18:47
Jeffrey Viel hit Evan Bouchard
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·18:34
Tim Washe hit Jason Dickinson
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·18:11
Giveaway by Mason McTavish
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·17:27
Giveaway by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·17:24
Alex Killorn hit Evan Bouchard
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·17:23
Takeaway by Evan Bouchard
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·15:44
Tim Washe faceoff won against Trent Frederic
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·15:44
Goalie Stopped
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·15:43
Jacob Trouba Slap Shot Wide Right
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·15:21
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Josh Samanski
·
EDM 3·ANA 3
3rd·15:21
Hand Pass
EDM 3·ANA 3

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 7.5·EDM -135/ANA +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Edmonton Oilers, 4–3 in overtime.

ANA +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
57.8%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.8%
P(ANA win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.8%
P(ANA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL