Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at TB?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

MTL

48-24-10

50-26-6

NHLSun, Apr 19FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTB -180

MTL · top performer

Juraj Slafkovsky

LW · #20

3Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Brandon Hagel

LW · #38

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	1	0	1	1	4	1	4	14:47
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	9:10
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	2	-1	2	2	1	0	21:11
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:58
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	13:19
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	1	0	2	2	1	0	16:34
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	15:16
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:25
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	16:23
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	3	0	-1	7	2	0	2	21:11
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	2	-1	0	1	1	0	22:58
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	10:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	18:36
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-1	0	3	1	4	21:21
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	29:00
M. MathesonD · #8	0	1	1	0	4	6	0	22:56
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:33
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	10:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	23	3	20	.870	61:13

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	1	1	6	1	2	17:35
C. GeekieC · #14	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	8:12
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:42
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:43
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	17:35
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	3	1	4	0	0	2	22:57
B. HagelLW · #38	2	0	1	3	1	0	2	25:27
D. JamesC · #17	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:18
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	2	-1	5	2	0	2	17:38
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	1	7	1	0	13:47
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	8:42
B. PointC · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	18:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	1	1	4	1	0	20:53
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:35
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	17:27
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	21:19
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	22:12
D. RaddyshD · #43	1	0	-1	6	4	0	0	23:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	19	4	15	.789	61:22

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

60.0

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

MTL leads series 1-0

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3today

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0

May 3

MTL2@

TB1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+15040%

TB-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 39 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat TB 4-3. J. Slafkovsky led the way — 3 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
MTL	1	1	1	1	4
TB	0	2	1	0	3

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · TB won 1

MTL

Play-by-play · 346 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·1:22
Game End
MTL 4·TB 3
1st OT·1:22
End of OT
MTL 4·TB 3
1st OT·1:22
Juraj Slafkovský Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (1), Nick Suzuki (2)
· ·
MTL 4·TB 3
1st OT·0:59
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
MTL 3·TB 3
1st OT·0:59
Timeout - Visitor
MTL 3·TB 3
1st OT·0:59
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·TB 3
1st OT·0:56
Cole Caufield Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
MTL 3·TB 3
1st OT·0:36
Takeaway by Brandon Hagel
MTL 3·TB 3
1st OT·0:13
Takeaway by Brandon Hagel
MTL 3·TB 3
1st OT·0:00
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
MTL 3·TB 3
1st OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·19:39
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·19:39
Jake Guentzel High-sticking against Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·19:31
Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Ivan Demidov
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·19:23
Brandon Hagel Snap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·19:17
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·19:17
Puck in Crowd
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·19:00
Brayden Point shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·18:53
Nikita Kucherov Slap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·18:51
Nick Paul faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·18:51
Puck Frozen - Goalie
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·18:40
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·18:11
Nick Paul hit Jayden Struble
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·17:58
Darren Raddysh hit Phillip Danault
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·17:38
Phillip Danault hit J.J. Moser
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·17:36
Nick Paul faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·17:36
Puck in Crowd
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·17:34
Josh Anderson hit J.J. Moser
·
MTL 3·TB 3
3rd·17:33
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Josh Anderson
·
MTL 3·TB 3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +150/TB -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699
Lane HutsonMTL · D
BURSTS2598
Arber XhekajMTL · D
SHOT MPH98.598
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
iXG33.798
Darren RaddyshTOR · D
SHOT MPH97.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.4%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
58.0%
P(TB win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.0%
P(TB win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
57.5%
P(TB win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at TB?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TB vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands