Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at VGK?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2VGK

UTA

43-33-6

VGK

39-26-17

NHLSun, Apr 19FinalSeriesUTA wins series 2-1VegasVGK -162

UTA · top performer

Logan Cooley

C · #92

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Mark Stone

RW · #61

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	11:34
L. CooleyC · #92	1	0	1	5	4	0	0	19:59
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	1	-2	2	9	1	0	17:39
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	18:58
C. KellerRW · #9	0	0	-3	2	1	1	0	19:49
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	15:24
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:06
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:47
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	-3	3	0	0	0	18:56
K. StenlundC · #82	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	12:24
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	8:03
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	13:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	1	0	0	1	3	0	16:13
S. DurziD · #50	0	1	0	1	0	1	2	15:04
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	1	2	0	4	0	18:56
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	20:50
M. SergachevD · #98	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	24:28
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	-1	2	0	4	0	20:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	30	3	27	.900	58:38

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	15:31
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	12:39
N. DowdC · #26	1	0	2	1	3	0	0	10:33
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	21:31
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	-2	4	3	0	0	13:21
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	12:22
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	1	9	4	2	14:14
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	18:49
C. SissonsC · #10	1	1	3	1	3	2	0	13:29
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	-2	5	1	1	0	11:25
C. SmithRW · #22	0	1	2	2	4	0	0	13:28
M. StoneRW · #61	1	0	0	4	3	0	0	20:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	1	2	2	1	2	22:53
N. HanifinD · #15	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	22:39
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	10:05
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	3	1	2	16:25
B. McNabbD · #3	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	21:44
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	1	1	0	5	0	22:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	33	2	31	.939	59:50

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK leads series 1-0

Apr 20

UTA2@

VGK4today

Apr 22

UTA3@

VGK2

Apr 25

VGK2@

UTA4

Apr 28

VGK5@

UTA4

Apr 30

UTA4@

VGK5

May 2

VGK5@

UTA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA+13642%

VGK-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 52 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat UTA 4-2. M. Stone led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
UTA	1	1	0	2
VGK	0	1	3	4

Period scoring

UTA won 1 · VGK won 1

UTA

VGK

Play-by-play · 383 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:58
Logan Cooley Snap Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:52
Mikhail Sergachev Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:44
Mikhail Sergachev shot blocked by Nick Schmaltz
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:29
Clayton Keller Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:20
Clayton Keller Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:14
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Keegan Kolesar
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:07
Nick Schmaltz shot blocked by Keegan Kolesar
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:03
Giveaway by Jeremy Lauzon
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:01
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Keegan Kolesar
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:00
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·19:00
Icing
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·18:54
Lawson Crouse hit Rasmus Andersson
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·18:37
Dylan Guenther Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·18:25
Cole Smith Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka
· ·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·18:21
Keegan Kolesar faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·18:21
Ivan Barbashev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (2)
·
UTA 2·VGK 4
3rd·18:12
Giveaway by Noah Hanifin
UTA 2·VGK 3
3rd·17:34
Brayden McNabb hit JJ Peterka
·
UTA 2·VGK 3
3rd·17:27
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot
·
UTA 2·VGK 3
3rd·17:27
Goalie Stopped
UTA 2·VGK 3
3rd·17:26
John Marino Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
UTA 2·VGK 3
3rd·17:02
Lawson Crouse hit Jack Eichel
·
UTA 2·VGK 3
3rd·16:54
Takeaway by Lawson Crouse
UTA 2·VGK 3
3rd·16:49
MacKenzie Weegar Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
UTA 2·VGK 3
3rd·15:49
Giveaway by Dylan Guenther
UTA 2·VGK 3
3rd·15:20
Mikhail Sergachev Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
UTA 2·VGK 3
3rd·15:17
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Mitch Marner
·
UTA 2·VGK 3
3rd·15:17
Icing
UTA 2·VGK 3

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA +136/VGK -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Utah Mammoth, 4–2.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
54.1%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.1%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.1%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at VGK?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Utah MammothVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL