Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3EDM

EDM

40-29-10

37-33-7

NHLWed, Apr 8FinalSeriesEDM wins series 3-1VegasEDM -108

EDM · top performer

Connor McDavid

C · #97

5Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DachC · #34	0	0	-1	0	7	0	0	12:27
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:06
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	-1	1	7	0	0	15:10
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	13:23
M. JonesLW · #46	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	10:22
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:45
C. McDavidC · #97	3	2	2	8	0	1	0	21:10
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	19:31
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	1	1	1	3	2	2	0	16:48
J. RoslovicC · #28	1	1	1	2	3	0	0	12:48
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	11:19
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	16:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	22:32
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	17:39
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	16:57
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	20:08
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	21:17
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	10	2	8	.800	40:00
T. JarryG · #35	4	0	4	1.000	20:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	1	0	0	4	1	1	2	21:48
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	10:25
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	17:20
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:27
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	10:47
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:59
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	-2	1	0	2	2	11:34
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	11:24
K. SherwoodLW · #44	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	18:01
W. SmithC · #2	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	18:40
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	13:24
A. WennbergC · #21	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	20:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	18:58
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	13:54
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	23:41
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	17:49
N. LeddyD · #4	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	19:00
D. OrlovD · #9	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	21:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	26	5	21	.808	59:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

EDM wins series 3-1

Jan 30

SJ3@

EDM4

Feb 28

EDM4@

SJ5

Mar 18

SJ3@

EDM5

Apr 9

EDM5@

SJ2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM-10852%

SJ-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 101 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat SJ 5-2. C. McDavid led the way — 3 G · 2 A · 8 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
EDM	2	3	0	5
SJ	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

EDM won 2 · SJ won 0

EDM

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·19:54
Jake Walman shot blocked by Tyler Toffoli
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·19:31
Giveaway by Jack Roslovic
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·19:08
Nick Leddy Wrist Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·18:49
Icing
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·18:38
Giveaway by Barclay Goodrow
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·18:20
Giveaway by Nick Leddy
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·18:03
Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Josh Samanski
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·18:03
Puck in Netting
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·17:56
Giveaway by Adam Gaudette
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·17:38
Connor McDavid Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·17:27
Vincent Desharnais Slap Shot Wide Left
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·17:21
Jack Roslovic hit Dmitry Orlov
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·17:16
Giveaway by Tristan Jarry
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·15:48
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·15:44
Matt Savoie shot blocked by Macklin Celebrini
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·15:35
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·15:18
Vasily Podkolzin Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·14:39
Barclay Goodrow hit Connor Murphy
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·14:19
Kiefer Sherwood Tip-In Wide Right
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·14:04
Giveaway by Jake Walman
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·13:59
William Eklund Wrist Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·13:52
Mario Ferraro Wrist Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·13:30
Mario Ferraro shot blocked by Connor McDavid
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·13:21
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Connor McDavid
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·13:21
Puck in Benches
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·11:48
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·11:48
Icing
EDM 5·SJ 2
3rd·11:39
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
EDM 5·SJ 2

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -108/SJ -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 5–2.

EDM -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
55.3%
P(SJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL