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FINAL+1SJ
CHI

CHI

28-36-14

23
SJ

SJ

37-32-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Apr 6FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSJ -162

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Chicago Blackhawks, 3–2.

CHI +1.5 cashed (SJ won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHI · top performer

CHI
Frank Nazar

Frank Nazar

C · #91

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

SJ
William Eklund

William Eklund

LW · #72

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Chicago Blackhawks at San Jose Sharks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
3
CHI28-36-14SJ37-32-7
CHI

CHI

28-36-14

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
SJ

SJ

37-32-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 3SJSJ3@CHICHI6
Apr 7CHICHI2@SJSJ3today
Apr 16SJSJ2@CHICHI5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHICHI+13642%
SJSJ-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat CHI 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CHI1012
SJ0213

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · SJ won 1

1
0

1

0
2

2

1
1

3

CHI
SJ

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  3. 3rd·19:57

    Connor Bedard Slap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  4. 3rd·19:35

    Ryan Donato faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  5. 3rd·19:35

    Icing

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  6. 3rd·18:55

    Frank Nazar Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  7. 3rd·18:53

    Ryan Donato Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  8. 3rd·18:52

    Tyler Bertuzzi Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  9. 3rd·18:41

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  10. 3rd·18:41

    Goalie Stopped

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  11. 3rd·18:38

    Anton Frondell Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  12. 3rd·18:37

    Giveaway by Dmitry Orlov

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  13. 3rd·17:31

    Collin Graf Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  14. 3rd·16:53

    Mario Ferraro hit Frank Nazar

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  15. 3rd·16:42

    Michael Misa faceoff won against Connor Bedard

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  16. 3rd·16:42

    Icing

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  17. 3rd·16:22

    Michael Misa faceoff won against Ryan Donato

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  18. 3rd·16:22

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  19. 3rd·15:22

    Giveaway by Will Smith

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  20. 3rd·15:18

    William Eklund shot blocked by Louis Crevier

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  21. 3rd·15:13

    Giveaway by Ryan Donato

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  22. 3rd·14:31

    Kiefer Sherwood hit Wyatt Kaiser

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  23. 3rd·14:14

    Ryan Donato faceoff won against Kiefer Sherwood

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  24. 3rd·14:14

    Puck in Netting

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  25. 3rd·14:13

    Connor Bedard Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  26. 3rd·14:09

    Giveaway by Alex Nedeljkovic

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  27. 3rd·14:04

    Zack Ostapchuk hit Alex Vlasic

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  28. 3rd·13:55

    Ilya Mikheyev hit William Eklund

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  29. 3rd·13:50

    Anton Frondell shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

  30. 3rd·13:27

    Dmitry Orlov hit Anton Frondell

    ·

    CHI 2·SJ 3

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

SJ

Home

29

Shots

23

33.3

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

6

16

Faceoffs W

36

12

Blocks

8

15

Giveaways

19

5

Takeaways

2

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·CHI +136/SJ -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Louis CrevierCHI · D
    SHOT MPH102.899
  • Connor BedardCHI · C
    BURSTS19595
  • Anton FrondellCHI · C
    SHOT MPH93.694
  • Alex VlasicCHI · D
    BURSTS7190
  • Ryan DonatoCHI · C
    SHOT MPH91.388

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · SJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR