Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SJ

CHI

28-36-14

37-32-7

NHLMon, Apr 6FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSJ -162

CHI · top performer

Frank Nazar

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

William Eklund

LW · #72

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	1	-2	7	0	1	2	21:13
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:16
S. BoisvertC · #12	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:39
R. DonatoC · #8	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:40
A. FrondellC · #16	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	18:44
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:34
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	13:03
A. MangiapaneLW · #26	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:04
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:06
F. NazarC · #91	1	1	1	6	0	1	0	21:35
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	9:55
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	1	-3	1	0	0	0	18:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	20:25
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	14:23
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:54
K. KorchinskiD · #14	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	15:38
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	16:34
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	18:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	23	3	20	.870	58:41

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	1	1	3	2	0	2	22:05
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	14:27
T. DellandreaC · #10	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:23
W. EklundLW · #72	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:03
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	10:08
C. GrafRW · #51	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	20:36
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:40
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	8:09
K. SherwoodLW · #44	1	0	2	2	5	0	0	13:15
W. SmithC · #2	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:47
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:16
A. WennbergC · #21	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	24:11
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:22
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	1	2	3	2	0	21:51
N. LeddyD · #4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:27
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:31
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	1	3	4	1	2	20:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	29	2	27	.931	59:59

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 3

SJ3@

CHI6

Apr 7

CHI2@

SJ3today

Apr 16

SJ2@

CHI5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+13642%

SJ-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 89 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat CHI 3-2. W. Eklund led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CHI	1	0	1	2
SJ	0	2	1	3

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · SJ won 1

CHI

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·19:57
Connor Bedard Slap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·19:35
Ryan Donato faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·19:35
Icing
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·18:55
Frank Nazar Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·18:53
Ryan Donato Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·18:52
Tyler Bertuzzi Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·18:41
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·18:41
Goalie Stopped
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·18:38
Anton Frondell Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·18:37
Giveaway by Dmitry Orlov
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·17:31
Collin Graf Tip-In Wide Right
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·16:53
Mario Ferraro hit Frank Nazar
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·16:42
Michael Misa faceoff won against Connor Bedard
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·16:42
Icing
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·16:22
Michael Misa faceoff won against Ryan Donato
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·16:22
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·15:22
Giveaway by Will Smith
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·15:18
William Eklund shot blocked by Louis Crevier
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·15:13
Giveaway by Ryan Donato
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·14:31
Kiefer Sherwood hit Wyatt Kaiser
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·14:14
Ryan Donato faceoff won against Kiefer Sherwood
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·14:14
Puck in Netting
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·14:13
Connor Bedard Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·14:09
Giveaway by Alex Nedeljkovic
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·14:04
Zack Ostapchuk hit Alex Vlasic
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·13:55
Ilya Mikheyev hit William Eklund
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·13:50
Anton Frondell shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais
·
CHI 2·SJ 3
3rd·13:27
Dmitry Orlov hit Anton Frondell
·
CHI 2·SJ 3

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·CHI +136/SJ -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Chicago Blackhawks, 3–2.

CHI +1.5 cashed (SJ won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.0%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
64.0%
P(SJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.0%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.0%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Chicago BlackhawksSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL