Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at WSH?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4WSH

CGY

25-31-7

WSH

32-26-7

NHLMon, Mar 9FinalSeriesWSH wins series 2-0VegasWSH -192

CGY · top performer

Blake Coleman

LW · #20

1Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Justin Sourdif

RW · #34

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:26
B. ColemanLW · #20	1	0	0	6	2	2	0	18:19
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	13:30
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	17:53
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	15:25
M. GridinRW · #92	1	0	-1	3	1	0	0	12:46
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	11:21
R. LombergLW · #70	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	8:39
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	15:43
Y. SharangovichC · #17	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:13
R. StromeC · #22	0	1	-2	1	0	0	0	14:06
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	13:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	-3	3	2	3	2	21:17
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	18:44
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	1	-1	0	3	2	0	22:38
O. MaattaD · #3	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	20:22
B. PachalD · #94	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	18:08
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	0	4	19:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CooleyG · #1	28	6	22	.786	59:23

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	1	2	1	2	1	0	16:33
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:31
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	1	2	1	2	3	0	11:07
E. FrankC · #53	1	0	2	3	0	1	0	14:18
H. LapierreC · #29	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	11:57
R. LeonardRW · #9	1	0	-1	3	4	0	0	14:24
C. McMichaelC · #24	2	0	1	3	0	2	0	14:53
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:20
A. ProtasC · #21	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	17:20
J. SourdifRW · #34	1	2	3	4	0	0	0	17:09
D. StromeC · #17	0	1	-2	5	0	1	0	17:04
T. WilsonRW · #43	1	0	-2	2	1	2	0	18:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. ChisholmD · #47	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	13:59
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	24:12
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	1	2	1	4	2	0	19:06
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	19:34
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	3	1	3	3	0	20:10
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	18:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	26	3	23	.885	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WSH wins series 2-0

Jan 24

WSH3@

CGY1

Mar 9

CGY3@

WSH7today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+16038%

WSH-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat CGY 7-3. J. Sourdif led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	3	0	3
WSH	3	0	4	7

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · WSH won 2

CGY

WSH

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 3·WSH 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 3·WSH 7
3rd·19:44
Hendrix Lapierre faceoff won against Connor Zary
·
CGY 3·WSH 7
3rd·19:44
Ryan Leonard Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Justin Sourdif (16)
·
CGY 3·WSH 7
3rd·19:13
Matt Coronato Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
CGY 3·WSH 6
3rd·19:08
Mikael Backlund Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CGY 3·WSH 6
3rd·19:06
Victor Olofsson shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
·
CGY 3·WSH 6
3rd·18:46
Zayne Parekh shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
·
CGY 3·WSH 6
3rd·17:43
Anthony Beauvillier hit Yan Kuznetsov
·
CGY 3·WSH 6
3rd·17:14
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Ryan Strome
· ·
CGY 3·WSH 6
3rd·17:14
Ethen Frank Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (3), Hendrix Lapierre (9)
· ·
CGY 3·WSH 6
3rd·17:05
Zayne Parekh Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·16:50
Blake Coleman shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·16:40
Morgan Frost hit Hendrix Lapierre
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·16:37
Brandon Duhaime hit Zayne Parekh
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·16:22
Yegor Sharangovich Slap Shot Wide Left
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·16:19
Yegor Sharangovich shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·16:12
Brayden Pachal Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·16:11
Giveaway by Trevor van Riemsdyk
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·15:27
Dylan Strome Tip-In saved by Devin Cooley
· ·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·15:16
Rasmus Sandin hit Connor Zary
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·14:34
Zayne Parekh shot blocked by Morgan Frost
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·14:25
Martin Fehervary hit Morgan Frost
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·14:24
Joel Farabee Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·14:19
Ryan Leonard hit Kevin Bahl
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·14:16
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·14:16
Puck in Netting
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·14:14
Connor Zary shot blocked by Matt Roy
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·13:44
Justin Sourdif Snap Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
CGY 3·WSH 5
3rd·13:18
Dylan Strome Tip-In Wide Right
· ·
CGY 3·WSH 5

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +160/WSH -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Calgary Flames, 7–3.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Blake Coleman · CGY18:240.7151.2%55.5%18:24 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 51.2% CF · 55.5% xGF
Connor McMichael · STL15:120.4443.3%52.7%15:12 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 43.3% CF · 52.7% xGF
Connor Zary · CGY13:420.4254.2%47.7%13:42 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 54.2% CF · 47.7% xGF
Yegor Sharangovich · CGY15:300.4265.7%41.7%15:30 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 65.7% CF · 41.7% xGF
Hendrix Lapierre · PIT12:060.4048.0%55.0%12:06 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 48.0% CF · 55.0% xGF
Dylan Strome · WSH17:060.4045.5%51.2%17:06 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 45.5% CF · 51.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Logan Thompson · WSH23–3.885-0.0423–3 · .885 SV% · -0.04 GSAx
Devin Cooley · CGY22–6.786-2.7822–6 · .786 SV% · -2.78 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.5%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
61.5%
P(WSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.5%
P(WSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.5%
P(WSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at WSH?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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