Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at CBJ?

The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LA

26-23-14

CBJ

32-21-10

NHLMon, Mar 9FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCBJ -155

LA · top performer

Adrian Kempe

RW · #9

2Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Conor Garland

RW · #83

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	0	-3	3	2	2	4	21:04
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	6:47
A. KempeRW · #9	2	0	2	5	2	0	0	21:02
A. KopitarC · #11	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	20:48
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	0	-2	2	3	0	0	23:32
S. LaughtonC · #21	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	15:09
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4:55
T. MooreLW · #12	0	0	-2	4	4	0	0	20:57
A. PanarinLW · #10	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	21:19
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	10:07
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	6:06
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	11:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	1	-1	0	2	1	0	20:21
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	3	1	0	1	0	18:32
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	22:01
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	1	-2	2	0	0	0	21:58
B. DumoulinD · #2	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	17:12
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	17:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	32	4	28	.875	62:34

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	1	-1	0	1	1	0	16:37
A. FantilliC · #19	0	0	-3	1	0	0	2	21:44
C. GarlandRW · #83	2	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:05
B. JennerC · #38	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	14:15
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	13:04
I. LundestromC · #21	0	1	1	2	1	4	0	12:11
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	1	0	-1	6	0	0	0	22:51
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	19:37
S. MonahanC · #23	0	1	1	2	2	4	0	17:21
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	12:26
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	13:18
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	9:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	17:29
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	5:02
D. MateychukD · #5	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	17:52
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	23:07
D. SeversonD · #78	0	0	-2	3	0	1	2	24:08
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	1	-4	3	1	2	0	29:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	31	5	26	.839	62:34

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 23

CBJ3@

LA1

Jan 27

LA0@

CBJ0

Mar 9

LA5@

CBJ4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA+13043%

CBJ-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat CBJ 5-4. A. Kempe led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
LA	2	1	1	1	5
CBJ	1	2	1	0	4

Period scoring

LA won 2 · CBJ won 1

CBJ

Play-by-play · 334 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:34
Game End
LA 5·CBJ 4
OT·2:34
End of OT
LA 5·CBJ 4
OT·2:34
Adrian Kempe Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (44), Drew Doughty (13)
· ·
LA 5·CBJ 4
OT·2:11
Quinton Byfield Slap Shot Wide Right
·
LA 4·CBJ 4
OT·0:23
Adrian Kempe Slap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
LA 4·CBJ 4
OT·0:00
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
LA 4·CBJ 4
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
LA 4·CBJ 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 4·CBJ 4
3rd·19:17
Joel Edmundson hit Isac Lundeström
·
LA 4·CBJ 4
3rd·19:11
Giveaway by Joel Edmundson
LA 4·CBJ 4
3rd·18:14
Artemi Panarin Slap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
LA 4·CBJ 4
3rd·18:10
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Boone Jenner
·
LA 4·CBJ 4
3rd·18:10
Icing
LA 4·CBJ 4
3rd·18:04
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 4·CBJ 4
3rd·18:04
Kirill Marchenko Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (46), Charlie Coyle (34)
· ·
LA 4·CBJ 4
3rd·17:44
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·17:44
Goalie Stopped
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·17:43
Kirill Marchenko Slap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·17:38
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·17:38
Goalie Stopped
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·17:36
Zach Werenski Slap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·17:14
Alex Laferriere hit Mason Marchment
·
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·17:01
Mikey Anderson hit Kirill Marchenko
·
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·16:43
Alex Laferriere faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·16:43
Scott Laughton Interference against Mason Marchment
·
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·16:41
Adam Fantilli Snap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·16:22
Giveaway by Mason Marchment
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·15:33
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·15:33
Puck Frozen - Goalie
LA 4·CBJ 3
3rd·15:25
Brian Dumoulin shot blocked by Sean Monahan
·
LA 4·CBJ 3

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +130/CBJ -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings went into Columbus Blue Jackets and beat them, 5–4 in overtime.

LA +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Anze Kopitar · LAK21:000.9070.7%84.8%21:00 TOI · 0.90 iXG · 70.7% CF · 84.8% xGF
Kirill Marchenko · CBJ23:300.7267.6%64.9%23:30 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 67.6% CF · 64.9% xGF
Adrian Kempe · LAK21:060.5066.7%79.7%21:06 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 66.7% CF · 79.7% xGF
Kent Johnson · CBJ13:060.3958.1%46.5%13:06 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 58.1% CF · 46.5% xGF
Scott Laughton · LAK15:180.3137.0%31.5%15:18 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 37.0% CF · 31.5% xGF
Artemi Panarin · LAK21:180.2575.6%89.8%21:18 TOI · 0.25 iXG · 75.6% CF · 89.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Anton Forsberg · LAK28–4.875-1.5028–4 · .875 SV% · -1.50 GSAx
Jet Greaves · CBJ26–5.839-1.9726–5 · .839 SV% · -1.97 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
63.8%
P(CBJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.8%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.8%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at CBJ?: The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Los Angeles KingsColumbus Blue Jackets

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