Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NYR

NYR

25-30-8

PHI

29-23-11

NHLMon, Mar 9FinalSeriesNYR win series 3-1VegasPHI -142

NYR · top performer

Mika Zibanejad

C · #93

3Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Sean Couturier

C · #14

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:22
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	10:53
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:33
A. EdstromC · #84	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:30
T. KartyeLW · #24	1	1	2	2	4	1	0	15:25
N. LabaC · #42	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	15:00
A. LafreniereLW · #13	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	17:21
J. ParssinenC · #71	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:49
G. PerreaultRW · #94	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	15:36
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:10
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	3	0	3	2	1	0	17:18
M. ZibanejadC · #93	2	1	1	3	0	0	0	17:50

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	16:18
A. FoxD · #23	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	22:19
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	2	1	1	0	1	2	19:54
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:27
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	23:18
U. VaakanainenD · #18	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	34	2	32	.941	59:48

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	-3	1	2	1	0	13:33
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	13:53
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	-3	0	3	1	0	12:48
S. CouturierC · #14	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:43
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:00
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	10:47
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	11:40
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	1	8	1	0	13:19
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	19:04
M. MichkovRW · #39	1	0	-3	2	0	0	0	16:13
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	0	3	8	1	0	16:52
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	19:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	21:42
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	-1	3	2	1	0	16:26
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	17:14
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	21:08
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	-1	4	3	1	0	18:02
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	21:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	3	0	3	1.000	19:47
D. VladarG · #80	24	6	18	.750	40:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

75.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYR win series 3-1

Dec 20

PHI4@

NYR5

Jan 17

NYR6@

PHI3

Feb 27

PHI3@

NYR2

Mar 9

NYR6@

PHI2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR+12045%

PHI-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat PHI 6-2. M. Zibanejad led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	3	3	0	6
PHI	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

NYR won 2 · PHI won 1

NYR

PHI

Play-by-play · 290 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·19:56
Travis Konecny Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Adam Edstrom
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·17:37
Trevor Zegras hit Adam Edstrom
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·17:35
Owen Tippett hit Juuso Parssinen
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·17:30
Nick Seeler Snap Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·17:21
Trevor Zegras faceoff won against Juuso Parssinen
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·17:21
Puck in Netting
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·17:11
Takeaway by Jonny Brodzinski
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·16:37
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·16:37
Off-side
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·16:21
Takeaway by Denver Barkey
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·16:18
Noah Cates shot blocked by Will Borgen
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·15:53
Denver Barkey Snap Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·15:51
Noah Cates faceoff won against Noah Laba
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·15:51
Goalie Stopped
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·15:49
Jamie Drysdale Snap Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·15:46
Noah Cates faceoff won against Noah Laba
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·15:46
Puck Frozen - Goalie
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·15:28
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·15:28
Sean Couturier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (10), Luke Glendening (5)
· ·
NYR 6·PHI 2
3rd·15:09
Will Borgen hit Luke Glendening
·
NYR 6·PHI 1
3rd·15:05
Cam York Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NYR 6·PHI 1
3rd·15:04
Giveaway by Adam Edstrom
NYR 6·PHI 1
3rd·13:00
Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad
NYR 6·PHI 1
3rd·12:53
Noah Cates hit Urho Vaakanainen
·
NYR 6·PHI 1
3rd·12:35
Noah Juulsen Slap Shot High and Wide Right
·
NYR 6·PHI 1
3rd·12:31
Noah Cates faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
NYR 6·PHI 1
3rd·12:31
Goalie Stopped
NYR 6·PHI 1

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYR +120/PHI -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 6–2.

NYR +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Alexis Lafrenière · NYR17:240.5661.3%59.6%17:24 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 61.3% CF · 59.6% xGF
Mika Zibanejad · NYR18:120.4456.3%56.6%18:12 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 56.3% CF · 56.6% xGF
Alex Bump · PHI14:240.3648.4%48.8%14:24 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 48.4% CF · 48.8% xGF
Sean Couturier · PHI13:420.3544.0%43.2%13:42 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 44.0% CF · 43.2% xGF
Vincent Trocheck · NYR17:180.3341.7%64.3%17:18 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 41.7% CF · 64.3% xGF
Gabe Perreault · NYR15:540.3260.7%60.3%15:54 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 60.7% CF · 60.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Igor Shesterkin · NYR32–2.941+1.0032–2 · .941 SV% · +1.00 GSAx
Samuel Ersson · PHI3–01.000+0.243–0 · 1.000 SV% · +0.24 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI18–6.750-3.1818–6 · .750 SV% · -3.18 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
61.0%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.0%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.0%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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