Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2OTT

OTT

32-22-9

VAN

19-37-8

NHLMon, Mar 9FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-0VegasOTT -230

OTT · top performer

Brady Tkachuk

LW · #7

1Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Filip Hronek

D · #17

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	18:28
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:50
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	12:54
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	15:39
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:53
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	12:11
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:01
R. GreigC · #71	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:45
S. PintoC · #12	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	19:01
T. StutzleC · #18	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	19:46
B. TkachukLW · #7	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	15:16
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	1	2	0	0	1	4	24:29
N. JensenD · #3	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	17:45
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	18:51
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:52
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:12
A. ZubD · #2	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ReimerG · #47	16	0	16	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	18:44
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	19:44
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	15:37
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	6:52
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	14:26
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	13:55
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	16:54
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:54
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	15:26
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	10:25
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	16:10
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	20:55
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	-2	3	1	1	0	26:01
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:24
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	22:10
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	14:19
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	20:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	23	1	22	.957	57:36

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 2-0

Jan 14

VAN1@

OTT2

Mar 10

OTT2@

VAN0today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT-23070%

VAN+19034%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat VAN 2-0. B. Tkachuk led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	0	1	1	2
VAN	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · VAN won 0

OTT

VAN

Play-by-play · 257 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 2·VAN 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 2·VAN 0
3rd·19:44
Teddy Blueger shot blocked by Tyler Kleven
·
OTT 2·VAN 0
3rd·19:26
Takeaway by Liam Ohgren
OTT 2·VAN 0
3rd·19:24
Giveaway by Liam Ohgren
OTT 2·VAN 0
3rd·19:14
Tom Willander Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
OTT 2·VAN 0
3rd·19:09
Tom Willander shot blocked by Liam Ohgren
·
OTT 2·VAN 0
3rd·18:40
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Max Sasson
·
OTT 2·VAN 0
3rd·18:40
Brady Tkachuk Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (38), Thomas Chabot (22)
· ·
OTT 2·VAN 0
3rd·18:30
Zeev Buium Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·17:20
Elias Pettersson shot blocked by Shane Pinto
· ·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·16:59
Giveaway by Max Sasson
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·16:24
Nick Jensen shot blocked by Teddy Blueger
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·15:49
Nils Hoglander Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·15:32
Tom Willander Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·14:24
Michael Amadio Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·14:16
Filip Hronek Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·13:44
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·13:44
Warren Foegele Hooking against Tom Willander
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·13:43
Takeaway by Ridly Greig
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·13:21
Tim Stützle hit Nils Hoglander
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·13:19
Jordan Spence hit Tom Willander
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·13:09
Tyler Kleven hit Elias Pettersson
· ·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·13:06
Jake DeBrusk Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·12:48
Giveaway by Drew O'Connor
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·12:14
Drew O'Connor Tip-In Wide Left
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·12:06
Drew O'Connor faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·12:06
Goalie Stopped
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·12:04
Zeev Buium Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 1·VAN 0
3rd·11:29
Michael Amadio Tip-In Wide Right
·
OTT 1·VAN 0

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT -230/VAN +190

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 2–0.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.5%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
42.5%
P(VAN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
42.5%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
42.5%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+190

Close price

+190

Open no-vig

33.1%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsVancouver Canucks

Elsewhere in the NHL