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FINAL+1CHI
UTA

UTA

34-25-5

23
CHI

CHI

24-29-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Mar 9FinalSeriesCHI leads series 3-0VegasUTAH -238

Recap · NHL

hicago Blackhawks held off Utah Mammoth, 3–2 in overtime.

CHI +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Dylan Guenther

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

CHI
Connor Bedard

Connor Bedard

C · #98

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at Chicago Blackhawks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
2
3
UTA34-25-5CHI24-29-11
UTA

UTA

34-25-5

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CHI

CHI

24-29-11

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

4

Season series

CHI leads series 3-0

Oct 14UTAUTA1@CHICHI3
Mar 1CHICHI4@UTAUTA0
Mar 10UTAUTA2@CHICHI3today
Mar 13CHICHI3@UTAUTA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA-23870%
CHICHI+19534%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat UTA 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
UTA20002
CHI11013

Period scoring

UTA won 1 · CHI won 2

2
1

1

0
1

2

0
0

3

0
1

OT

UTA
CHI

Play-by-play · 294 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:36

    Game End

    UTA 2·CHI 3

  2. OT·2:36

    End of OT

    UTA 2·CHI 3

  3. OT·2:36

    Frank Nazar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (18), Connor Bedard (34)

    · ·

    UTA 2·CHI 3

  4. OT·2:14

    Teuvo Teravainen Slap Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  5. OT·1:56

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  6. OT·1:56

    Nick Schmaltz Tripping against Andre Burakovsky

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  7. OT·1:48

    Sean Durzi hit Frank Nazar

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  8. OT·1:01

    Logan Cooley Wrist Shot saved by Drew Commesso

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  9. OT·0:39

    Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Ryan Greene

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  10. OT·0:27

    Clayton Keller Wrist Shot saved by Drew Commesso

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  11. OT·0:00

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Ryan Donato

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  12. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  13. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  14. 3rd·19:41

    Giveaway by Louis Crevier

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  15. 3rd·19:08

    Giveaway by Jack McBain

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  16. 3rd·18:54

    MacKenzie Weegar shot blocked by Barrett Hayton

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  17. 3rd·18:40

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Connor Bedard

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  18. 3rd·18:40

    Puck in Benches

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  19. 3rd·18:16

    Dylan Guenther Wrist Shot saved by Drew Commesso

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  20. 3rd·18:15

    Takeaway by Nick Schmaltz

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  21. 3rd·18:06

    Giveaway by Nick Schmaltz

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  22. 3rd·17:59

    Ryan Greene faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  23. 3rd·17:59

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  24. 3rd·17:57

    JJ Peterka Wrist Shot saved by Drew Commesso

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  25. 3rd·17:20

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Logan Cooley

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  26. 3rd·17:20

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  27. 3rd·17:20

    Kailer Yamamoto Backhand saved by Drew Commesso

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  28. 3rd·17:19

    Barrett Hayton Wrist Shot saved by Drew Commesso

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  29. 3rd·17:04

    Jack McBain hit Sam Rinzel

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

  30. 3rd·16:50

    Sean Durzi shot blocked by Ryan Greene

    ·

    UTA 2·CHI 2

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

25

Shots

26

0.0

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

4

24

Faceoffs W

27

10

Blocks

14

16

Giveaways

11

5

Takeaways

7

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA -238/CHI +195

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Louis CrevierCHI · D
    SHOT MPH102.899
  • Connor BedardCHI · C
    BURSTS19595
  • Alex VlasicCHI · D
    BURSTS7190
  • Ryan DonatoCHI · C
    SHOT MPH91.388
  • Wyatt KaiserCHI · D
    BURSTS6587

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+195

Close price

+195

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR