Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at CHI?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CHI

UTA

34-25-5

CHI

24-29-11

NHLMon, Mar 9FinalSeriesCHI leads series 3-0VegasUTAH -238

UTA · top performer

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

1Points

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

Connor Bedard

C · #98

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	10:45
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	15:14
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	15:18
D. GuentherRW · #11	1	0	0	3	2	1	0	20:30
B. HaytonC · #27	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	14:40
C. KellerRW · #9	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	20:29
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:31
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	12:52
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:13
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	1	0	3	0	1	2	20:48
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:51
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	20:50
N. DeSimoneD · #57	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	14:17
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	-2	0	1	0	2	21:26
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	22:11
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	1	2	2	2	0	22:02
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	-1	2	3	1	0	20:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. VanecekG · #41	26	3	23	.885	62:36

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	2	1	5	4	0	2	21:06
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	16:51
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	18:45
R. DonatoC · #8	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	16:10
R. GreeneC · #20	0	1	1	1	1	3	2	21:15
S. LaffertyC · #24	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:05
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:18
A. MangiapaneLW · #26	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:24
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	18:36
F. NazarC · #91	1	0	-1	2	0	1	0	20:40
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	7:07
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	17:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:17
M. GrzelcykD · #48	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:30
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	20:22
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	0	-1	1	3	2	0	19:10
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	23:22
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	20:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CommessoG · #33	25	2	23	.920	61:43

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CHI leads series 3-0

Oct 14

UTA1@

CHI3

Mar 1

CHI4@

UTA0

Mar 10

UTA2@

CHI3today

Mar 13

CHI3@

UTA2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA-23870%

CHI+19534%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat UTA 3-2. C. Bedard led the way — 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
UTA	2	0	0	0	2
CHI	1	1	0	1	3

Period scoring

UTA won 1 · CHI won 2

UTA

CHI

Play-by-play · 294 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:36
Game End
UTA 2·CHI 3
OT·2:36
End of OT
UTA 2·CHI 3
OT·2:36
Frank Nazar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (18), Connor Bedard (34)
· ·
UTA 2·CHI 3
OT·2:14
Teuvo Teravainen Slap Shot Hit Right Post
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
OT·1:56
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
OT·1:56
Nick Schmaltz Tripping against Andre Burakovsky
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
OT·1:48
Sean Durzi hit Frank Nazar
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
OT·1:01
Logan Cooley Wrist Shot saved by Drew Commesso
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
OT·0:39
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Ryan Greene
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
OT·0:27
Clayton Keller Wrist Shot saved by Drew Commesso
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
OT·0:00
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Ryan Donato
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·19:41
Giveaway by Louis Crevier
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·19:08
Giveaway by Jack McBain
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·18:54
MacKenzie Weegar shot blocked by Barrett Hayton
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·18:40
Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Connor Bedard
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·18:40
Puck in Benches
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·18:16
Dylan Guenther Wrist Shot saved by Drew Commesso
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·18:15
Takeaway by Nick Schmaltz
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·18:06
Giveaway by Nick Schmaltz
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·17:59
Ryan Greene faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·17:59
Goalie Stopped
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·17:57
JJ Peterka Wrist Shot saved by Drew Commesso
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·17:20
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·17:20
Goalie Stopped
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·17:20
Kailer Yamamoto Backhand saved by Drew Commesso
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·17:19
Barrett Hayton Wrist Shot saved by Drew Commesso
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·17:04
Jack McBain hit Sam Rinzel
·
UTA 2·CHI 2
3rd·16:50
Sean Durzi shot blocked by Ryan Greene
·
UTA 2·CHI 2

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA -238/CHI +195

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hicago Blackhawks held off Utah Mammoth, 3–2 in overtime.

CHI +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.8%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
44.8%
P(CHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
44.8%
P(CHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
44.8%
P(CHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+195

Close price

+195

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at CHI?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Utah MammothChicago Blackhawks

Elsewhere in the NHL