NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1STL

STL

24-29-9

30-25-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesSTL leads series 1-0VegasSJ -148

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

STL +1.5 cashed (SJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

3Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

STL24-29-9

SJ30-25-5

STL24-29-9SJ30-25-5

STL

24-29-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

30-25-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

STL leads series 1-0

Mar 7

STL3@

SJ2today

Mar 27

SJ1@

STL2

Mar 31

STL4@

SJ5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+12445%

SJ-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat SJ 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
STL	1	1	0	1	3
SJ	0	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

STL won 2 · SJ won 1

STL

Play-by-play · 270 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:54
Game End
STL 3·SJ 2
OT·0:54
End of OT
STL 3·SJ 2
OT·0:54
Robert Thomas Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (18), Dylan Holloway (13)
· ·
STL 3·SJ 2
OT·0:52
Philip Broberg Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
STL 2·SJ 2
OT·0:32
Takeaway by Dylan Holloway
STL 2·SJ 2
OT·0:09
Giveaway by Sam Dickinson
STL 2·SJ 2
OT·0:00
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
STL 2·SJ 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·19:32
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·19:32
Icing
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·19:23
Dmitry Orlov hit Jake Neighbours
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·18:28
Tyler Tucker shot blocked by Collin Graf
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·18:26
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·18:26
Goalie Stopped
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·18:24
Dalibor Dvorsky Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·17:54
Will Smith Tip-In Wide Left
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·17:05
Takeaway by Mario Ferraro
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·15:55
Giveaway by Alexey Toropchenko
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·15:39
Giveaway by Philip Broberg
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·15:09
Giveaway by Zack Ostapchuk
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·14:01
Takeaway by Jimmy Snuggerud
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·13:35
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·13:35
Puck in Benches
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·13:26
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·13:26
Kiefer Sherwood Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (13), Collin Graf (19)
· ·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·13:17
Sam Dickinson shot blocked by Logan Mailloux
·
STL 2·SJ 1
3rd·13:04
Philipp Kurashev Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 2·SJ 1
3rd·12:59
Collin Graf Tip-In saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 2·SJ 1
3rd·12:28
Giveaway by Tyler Toffoli
STL 2·SJ 1

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·STL +124/SJ -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Philip BrobergSTL · D
BURSTS15898
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RW
SHOT MPH95.697
Cam FowlerSTL · D
DIST MI260.294
Dylan HollowaySTL · LW
SHOT MPH93.092
Pavel BuchnevichSTL · LW
DIST MI234.892

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

SJ vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Dylan HollowaySTL
3.1± 1.3high
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL
2.6± 2.1high

Goals

Robert ThomasSTL
0.7± 1.2high
Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
Dylan HollowaySTL
0.4± 0.8high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
Robert ThomasSTL
1.4± 1.1high
Dylan HollowaySTL
1.2± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands