Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1STL

STL

24-29-9

30-25-5

NHLFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesSTL leads series 1-0VegasSJ -148

STL · top performer

Robert Thomas

C · #18

2Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	-2	0	1	0	2	17:32
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	17:17
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	11:21
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:10
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	3	3	0	2	1	5	15:48
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:34
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	11:02
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	17:08
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10:39
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:14
R. ThomasC · #18	2	0	3	5	0	1	0	19:06
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	12:41
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	10:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	32:51
C. FowlerD · #17	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	26:53
M. KesselD · #51	0	0	1	0	0	2	2	14:21
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	-2	1	2	2	0	25:03
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	18:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	25	2	23	.920	60:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	1	0	-1	3	1	0	0	21:36
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	17:32
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:30
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	-1	0	1	1	5	9:04
C. GrafRW · #51	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	14:09
P. KurashevC · #96	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	15:58
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:18
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	1	4	0	2	9:42
K. SherwoodLW · #44	1	0	1	1	8	0	0	15:34
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:31
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:02
A. WennbergC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:08
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:53
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	0	2	2	1	7	20:38
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	19:46
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	22:47
D. OrlovD · #9	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	19:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	14	3	11	.786	60:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

STL leads series 1-0

Mar 7

STL3@

SJ2today

Mar 27

SJ1@

STL2

Mar 31

STL4@

SJ5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+12445%

SJ-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat SJ 3-2. R. Thomas led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
STL	1	1	0	1	3
SJ	0	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

STL won 2 · SJ won 1

STL

Play-by-play · 270 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:54
Game End
STL 3·SJ 2
OT·0:54
End of OT
STL 3·SJ 2
OT·0:54
Robert Thomas Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (18), Dylan Holloway (13)
· ·
STL 3·SJ 2
OT·0:52
Philip Broberg Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
STL 2·SJ 2
OT·0:32
Takeaway by Dylan Holloway
STL 2·SJ 2
OT·0:09
Giveaway by Sam Dickinson
STL 2·SJ 2
OT·0:00
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
STL 2·SJ 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·19:32
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·19:32
Icing
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·19:23
Dmitry Orlov hit Jake Neighbours
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·18:28
Tyler Tucker shot blocked by Collin Graf
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·18:26
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·18:26
Goalie Stopped
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·18:24
Dalibor Dvorsky Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·17:54
Will Smith Tip-In Wide Left
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·17:05
Takeaway by Mario Ferraro
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·15:55
Giveaway by Alexey Toropchenko
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·15:39
Giveaway by Philip Broberg
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·15:09
Giveaway by Zack Ostapchuk
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·14:01
Takeaway by Jimmy Snuggerud
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·13:35
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·13:35
Puck in Benches
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·13:26
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·13:26
Kiefer Sherwood Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (13), Collin Graf (19)
· ·
STL 2·SJ 2
3rd·13:17
Sam Dickinson shot blocked by Logan Mailloux
·
STL 2·SJ 1
3rd·13:04
Philipp Kurashev Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 2·SJ 1
3rd·12:59
Collin Graf Tip-In saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 2·SJ 1
3rd·12:28
Giveaway by Tyler Toffoli
STL 2·SJ 1

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·STL +124/SJ -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

STL +1.5 cashed (SJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.8%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
64.0%
P(SJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.0%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.0%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL