Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2FLA

FLA

31-29-3

DET

35-21-7

NHLFri, Mar 6FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDET -148

FLA · top performer

Matthew Tkachuk

LW · #19

3Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:45
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	8:35
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:57
A. LundellC · #15	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	19:30
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:37
B. MarchandLW · #63	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	11:53
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	12:08
S. ReinhartC · #13	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:32
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:31
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:44
M. TkachukLW · #19	3	0	2	4	1	1	0	19:35
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	1	2	2	0	0	2	17:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	16:51
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	2	1	1	3	0	25:37
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	2	0	0	3	2	23:04
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	15:12
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	0	3	4	3	0	22:54
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	11:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	29	1	28	.966	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:15
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:58
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	20:26
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	0	-2	3	0	1	0	21:17
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	16:20
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	-2	3	0	1	2	20:32
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	14:31
D. LarkinC · #71	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	17:28
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	7:43
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	21:31
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:27
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	17:10
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	18:26
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	-1	2	1	1	2	20:28
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	20:01
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:56
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	24:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	22	2	20	.909	58:05

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 15

FLA1@

DET4

Mar 7

FLA3@

DET1today

Mar 10

DET3@

FLA4

Apr 15

DET1@

FLA8

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+12445%

DET-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 28 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat DET 3-1. M. Tkachuk led the way — 3 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	1	0	2	3
DET	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

FLA won 2 · DET won 1

FLA

DET

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:38
Lucas Raymond Slap Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:36
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:36
Puck in Netting
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:33
Lucas Raymond shot blocked by Aaron Ekblad
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:32
Emmitt Finnie Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:19
Moritz Seider shot blocked by J.T. Compher
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:17
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:17
Icing
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:11
Sam Bennett faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:11
Icing
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:52
Andrew Copp Tip-In Wide Left
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:38
Albert Johansson shot blocked by Matthew Tkachuk
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:34
Lucas Raymond hit Gustav Forsling
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:21
Sam Bennett shot blocked by Alex DeBrincat
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:08
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:08
Matthew Tkachuk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·17:41
Dmitry Kulikov hit Emmitt Finnie
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:38
Niko Mikkola hit Andrew Copp
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:11
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:11
Goalie Stopped
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:09
Axel Sandin-Pellikka Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:04
Marco Kasper Snap Shot Short
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·15:42
Tomas Nosek hit Lucas Raymond
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·15:41
Niko Mikkola hit Emmitt Finnie
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·14:53
Patrick Kane Snap Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·14:39
Patrick Kane faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·14:39
TV Timeout
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·14:39
Too many men/ice served by Mackie Samoskevich
FLA 2·DET 1

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +124/DET -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 3–1.

FLA +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.4%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
61.4%
P(DET win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Florida PanthersDetroit Red Wings

Elsewhere in the NHL