NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2FLA

FLA

31-29-3

DET

35-21-7

NHLFri, Mar 6FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDET -148

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 3–1.

FLA +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

Matthew Tkachuk

LW · #19

3Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
S. BennettC · #9	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:45
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	8:35
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:57
A. LundellC · #15	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	19:30
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:37
B. MarchandLW · #63	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	11:53
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	12:08
S. ReinhartC · #13	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:32
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:31
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:44
M. TkachukLW · #19	3	0	2	4	1	1	0	19:35
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	1	2	2	0	0	2	17:19

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	16:51
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	2	1	1	3	0	25:37
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	2	0	0	3	2	23:04
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	15:12
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	0	3	4	3	0	22:54
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	11:18

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
S. BobrovskyG · #72	29	1	28	.966	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:15
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:58
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	20:26
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	0	-2	3	0	1	0	21:17
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	16:20
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	-2	3	0	1	2	20:32
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	14:31
D. LarkinC · #71	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	17:28
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	7:43
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	21:31
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:27
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:15

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	17:10
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	18:26
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	-1	2	1	1	2	20:28
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	20:01
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:56
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	24:37

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
J. GibsonG · #36	22	2	20	.909	58:05

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 15

FLA1@

DET4

Mar 7

FLA3@

DET1today

Mar 10

DET3@

FLA4

Apr 15

DET1@

FLA8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+12445%

DET-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat DET 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	1	0	2	3
DET	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

FLA won 2 · DET won 1

FLA

DET

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:38
Lucas Raymond Slap Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:36
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:36
Puck in Netting
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:33
Lucas Raymond shot blocked by Aaron Ekblad
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:32
Emmitt Finnie Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:19
Moritz Seider shot blocked by J.T. Compher
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:17
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:17
Icing
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:11
Sam Bennett faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·19:11
Icing
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:52
Andrew Copp Tip-In Wide Left
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:38
Albert Johansson shot blocked by Matthew Tkachuk
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:34
Lucas Raymond hit Gustav Forsling
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:21
Sam Bennett shot blocked by Alex DeBrincat
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:08
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·18:08
Matthew Tkachuk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none
FLA 3·DET 1
3rd·17:41
Dmitry Kulikov hit Emmitt Finnie
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:38
Niko Mikkola hit Andrew Copp
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:11
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:11
Goalie Stopped
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:09
Axel Sandin-Pellikka Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·17:04
Marco Kasper Snap Shot Short
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·15:42
Tomas Nosek hit Lucas Raymond
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·15:41
Niko Mikkola hit Emmitt Finnie
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·14:53
Patrick Kane Snap Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·14:39
Patrick Kane faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·14:39
TV Timeout
FLA 2·DET 1
3rd·14:39
Too many men/ice served by Mackie Samoskevich
FLA 2·DET 1

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +124/DET -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Moritz SeiderDET · D
DIST MI299.899
Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
DIST MI252.196
Uvis BalinskisFLA · D
SKATE MPH23.195
Emmitt FinnieDET · C
BURSTS19394

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
61.4%
P(DET win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(DET win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.4%
P(DET win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss