Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at VGK?

The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIN

MIN

37-16-10

VGK

29-20-14

NHLFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-0VegasMIN -118

MIN · top performer

Michael McCarron

C · #47

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	20:21
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:28
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	19:37
R. FabbriC · #21	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:39
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	16:40
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:46
M. McCarronC · #47	1	1	1	1	3	0	2	10:41
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:59
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	1	0	2	2	1	0	0	12:58
Y. TreninC · #13	0	1	2	0	7	2	0	11:53
D. YurovRW · #22	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	10:59
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	16:37
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	19:23
B. FaberD · #7	0	1	1	0	0	0	17	16:41
Q. HughesD · #43	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	27:46
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	-1	1	0	0	5	16:08
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	1	3	1	1	1	0	21:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	31	2	29	.935	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	19:30
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	1	-1	2	1	0	2	19:50
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	1	-1	3	0	0	0	18:01
N. DowdC · #62	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	13:17
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	-1	5	0	1	0	24:30
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	14:27
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	2	1	1	5	8:09
M. MarnerRW · #93	1	0	-1	2	0	2	0	15:55
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	8:39
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:39
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	11:31
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-2	0	1	3	0	20:58
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-1	2	0	4	0	22:57
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:08
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	3	1	9	14:37
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	20:54
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	23:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SchmidG · #40	24	4	20	.833	58:25

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MIN wins series 3-0

Nov 16

VGK2@

MIN3

Dec 30

MIN5@

VGK2

Mar 7

MIN4@

VGK2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-11854%

VGK-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat VGK 4-2. M. McCarron led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	0	3	1	4
VGK	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · VGK won 1

MIN

VGK

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·19:56
Joel Eriksson Ek shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
·
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·19:49
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot Wide Left
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·19:45
Giveaway by Mitch Marner
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·19:16
Joel Eriksson Ek hit Tomas Hertl
·
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:54
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid
·
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:44
Joel Eriksson Ek Slap Shot saved by Akira Schmid
·
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:39
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:39
Icing
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:22
Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot Wide Left
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:17
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Yakov Trenin
·
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·18:03
Jack Eichel Backhand saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·17:40
Matt Boldy Backhand saved by Akira Schmid
·
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·17:30
Cole Smith Tip-In Wide Right
· ·
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·16:55
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·16:55
Mitch Marner Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (21), Tomas Hertl (30)
· ·
MIN 4·VGK 2
3rd·16:41
Kaedan Korczak Slap Shot Hit Left Post
·
MIN 4·VGK 1
3rd·16:29
Kirill Kaprizov hit Kaedan Korczak
·
MIN 4·VGK 1
3rd·16:25
Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 4·VGK 1
3rd·16:21
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
MIN 4·VGK 1
3rd·16:21
Icing
MIN 4·VGK 1
3rd·16:15
Colton Sissons hit Zach Bogosian
·
MIN 4·VGK 1
3rd·16:05
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 4·VGK 1
3rd·16:05
Puck in Benches
MIN 4·VGK 1
3rd·15:51
Nic Dowd Deflected Wide Right
·
MIN 4·VGK 1
3rd·15:42
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
MIN 4·VGK 1
3rd·15:42
Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (12), Michael McCarron (8)
· ·
MIN 4·VGK 1
3rd·14:04
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 3·VGK 1
3rd·14:04
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·VGK 1

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -118/VGK -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 4–2.

MIN -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
50.3%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.3%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.3%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at VGK?: The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Minnesota WildVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL