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FINAL+2MIN
MIN

MIN

37-16-10

42
VGK

VGK

29-20-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-0VegasMIN -118

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 4–2.

MIN -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Michael McCarron

Michael McCarron

C · #47

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Pavel Dorofeyev

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
MIN37-16-10VGK29-20-14
MIN

MIN

37-16-10

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

29-20-14

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

26

PIM

16

Season series

MIN wins series 3-0

Nov 16VGKVGK2@MINMIN3
Dec 30MINMIN5@VGKVGK2
Mar 7MINMIN4@VGKVGK2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN-11854%
VGKVGK-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat VGK 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MIN0314
VGK0022

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · VGK won 1

0
0

1

3
0

2

1
2

3

MIN
VGK

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  3. 3rd·19:56

    Joel Eriksson Ek shot blocked by Noah Hanifin

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  4. 3rd·19:49

    Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot Wide Left

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  5. 3rd·19:45

    Giveaway by Mitch Marner

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  6. 3rd·19:16

    Joel Eriksson Ek hit Tomas Hertl

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  7. 3rd·18:54

    Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  8. 3rd·18:44

    Joel Eriksson Ek Slap Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  9. 3rd·18:39

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  10. 3rd·18:39

    Icing

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  11. 3rd·18:22

    Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot Wide Left

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  12. 3rd·18:17

    Mitch Marner shot blocked by Yakov Trenin

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  13. 3rd·18:03

    Jack Eichel Backhand saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  14. 3rd·17:40

    Matt Boldy Backhand saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  15. 3rd·17:30

    Cole Smith Tip-In Wide Right

    · ·

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  16. 3rd·16:55

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  17. 3rd·16:55

    Mitch Marner Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (21), Tomas Hertl (30)

    · ·

    MIN 4·VGK 2

  18. 3rd·16:41

    Kaedan Korczak Slap Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 1

  19. 3rd·16:29

    Kirill Kaprizov hit Kaedan Korczak

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 1

  20. 3rd·16:25

    Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Ryan Hartman

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 1

  21. 3rd·16:21

    Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 1

  22. 3rd·16:21

    Icing

    MIN 4·VGK 1

  23. 3rd·16:15

    Colton Sissons hit Zach Bogosian

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 1

  24. 3rd·16:05

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Ryan Hartman

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 1

  25. 3rd·16:05

    Puck in Benches

    MIN 4·VGK 1

  26. 3rd·15:51

    Nic Dowd Deflected Wide Right

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 1

  27. 3rd·15:42

    Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    MIN 4·VGK 1

  28. 3rd·15:42

    Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (12), Michael McCarron (8)

    · ·

    MIN 4·VGK 1

  29. 3rd·14:04

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MIN 3·VGK 1

  30. 3rd·14:04

    Goalie Stopped

    MIN 3·VGK 1

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

24

Shots

31

0.0

PCT

100.0

26

PIM

16

16

Faceoffs W

36

10

Blocks

18

10

Giveaways

13

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -118/VGK -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR