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FINAL+1COL
COL

COL

42-10-9

54
DAL

DAL

38-14-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Mar 6FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -122

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Dallas Stars and beat them, 5–4.

DAL +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Martin Necas

Martin Necas

C · #88

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Mavrik Bourque

Mavrik Bourque

C · #22

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
5
4
COL42-10-9DAL38-14-10
COL

COL

42-10-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

38-14-10

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

10

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 12DALDAL5@COLCOL4
Mar 7COLCOL5@DALDAL4today
Mar 19DALDAL2@COLCOL1
Apr 4COLCOL2@DALDAL0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-12255%
DALDAL+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat DAL 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
COL211015
DAL310004

Period scoring

COL won 2 · DAL won 1

2
3

1

1
1

2

1
0

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

COL
DAL

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    COL 2·DAL 0

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    COL 2·DAL 0

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    COL 2·DAL 0

  4. SO·0:00

    Martin Necas Goal Snap Shot

    COL 2·DAL 0

  5. SO·0:00

    Matt Duchene Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood

    · ·

    COL 2·DAL 0

  6. SO·0:00

    Valeri Nichushkin Goal Snap Shot

    COL 2·DAL 0

  7. SO·0:00

    Jason Robertson Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood

    · ·

    COL 2·DAL 0

  8. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    COL 0·DAL 0

  9. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    COL 4·DAL 4

  10. OT·4:54

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Thomas Harley

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  11. OT·4:46

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Matt Duchene

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  12. OT·4:46

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 4·DAL 4

  13. OT·4:44

    Jason Robertson Deflected saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  14. OT·4:31

    Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  15. OT·4:31

    Net Dislodged Offensive Skater

    COL 4·DAL 4

  16. OT·3:34

    Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  17. OT·3:34

    Puck in Netting

    COL 4·DAL 4

  18. OT·3:31

    Devon Toews Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  19. OT·3:12

    Jason Robertson shot blocked by Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  20. OT·2:54

    Miro Heiskanen Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  21. OT·2:53

    Takeaway by Miro Heiskanen

    COL 4·DAL 4

  22. OT·2:49

    Miro Heiskanen Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  23. OT·1:35

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  24. OT·1:35

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 4·DAL 4

  25. OT·1:33

    Brock Nelson Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  26. OT·0:00

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  27. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    COL 4·DAL 4

  28. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 4·DAL 4

  29. 3rd·19:45

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Matt Duchene

    ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

  30. 3rd·19:45

    Valeri Nichushkin Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (48), Brock Nelson (23)

    · ·

    COL 4·DAL 4

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

29

Shots

21

40.0

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

10

31

Faceoffs W

27

11

Blocks

17

16

Giveaways

14

2

Takeaways

8

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·COL -122/DAL +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Roope HintzDAL · C
    BURSTS25998
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR