Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1COL

COL

42-10-9

DAL

38-14-10

NHLFri, Mar 6FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -122

COL · top performer

Martin Necas

C · #88

4Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Justin Hryckowian

C · #49

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	6:09
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	7:07
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	0	2	10	0	0	13:46
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	11:38
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	12:46
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:54
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	22:54
N. MacKinnonC · #29	1	2	1	2	0	1	0	27:21
M. NecasC · #88	1	3	1	5	2	0	0	26:55
B. NelsonC · #11	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	24:50
V. NichushkinRW · #13	1	0	0	3	1	1	0	19:15
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:12
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	16:07
C. MakarD · #8	1	1	-1	2	1	2	0	27:46
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:12
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	15:36
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	-2	5	1	1	0	23:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	11	4	7	.636	21:47
S. WedgewoodG · #41	10	0	10	1.000	41:01

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	10:53
N. BastianRW · #11	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	8:16
J. BennLW · #14	1	0	-1	2	3	0	0	15:27
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:37
M. BourqueC · #22	0	2	1	1	0	1	2	17:10
M. DucheneC · #95	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	17:41
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:09
R. HintzC · #24	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	11:26
J. HryckowianC · #49	1	1	1	2	3	1	2	20:22
W. JohnstonC · #53	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	24:14
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	2	0	3	0	1	0	22:12
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	1	1	2	1	2	17:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:37
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	23:36
M. HeiskanenD · #4	1	1	1	2	0	1	0	31:46
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	25:48
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	15:46
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	10:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	29	4	25	.862	64:36

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

40.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 12

DAL5@

COL4

Mar 7

COL5@

DAL4today

Mar 19

DAL2@

COL1

Apr 4

COL2@

DAL0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-12255%

DAL+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 44 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat DAL 5-4. M. Necas led the way — 1 G · 3 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
COL	2	1	1	0	1	5
DAL	3	1	0	0	0	4

Period scoring

COL won 2 · DAL won 1

COL

DAL

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
COL 2·DAL 0
SO·0:00
End of OT
COL 2·DAL 0
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
COL 2·DAL 0
SO·0:00
Martin Necas Goal Snap Shot
COL 2·DAL 0
SO·0:00
Matt Duchene Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood
· ·
COL 2·DAL 0
SO·0:00
Valeri Nichushkin Goal Snap Shot
COL 2·DAL 0
SO·0:00
Jason Robertson Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood
· ·
COL 2·DAL 0
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
COL 0·DAL 0
OT·5:00
End of OT
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·4:54
Cale Makar shot blocked by Thomas Harley
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·4:46
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·4:46
Goalie Stopped
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·4:44
Jason Robertson Deflected saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·4:31
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·4:31
Net Dislodged Offensive Skater
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·3:34
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·3:34
Puck in Netting
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·3:31
Devon Toews Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·3:12
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Brock Nelson
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·2:54
Miro Heiskanen Snap Shot Wide Left
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·2:53
Takeaway by Miro Heiskanen
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·2:49
Miro Heiskanen Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·1:35
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·1:35
Goalie Stopped
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·1:33
Brock Nelson Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·0:00
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian
·
COL 4·DAL 4
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
COL 4·DAL 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 4·DAL 4
3rd·19:45
Jack Drury faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
COL 4·DAL 4
3rd·19:45
Valeri Nichushkin Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (48), Brock Nelson (23)
· ·
COL 4·DAL 4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·COL -122/DAL +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Dallas Stars and beat them, 5–4.

DAL +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
55.0%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.0%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.0%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL