Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at CHI?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3VAN

VAN

19-36-7

CHI

23-29-10

NHLFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesVAN wins series 2-1VegasCHI -155

VAN · top performer

Brock Boeser

RW · #6

2Points

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

Ilya Mikheyev

RW · #95

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:58
B. BoeserRW · #6	2	0	1	4	1	0	0	19:13
J. DeBruskLW · #74	1	1	-1	3	3	0	0	15:46
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:57
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:32
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	12:30
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	13:40
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:03
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	1	-1	2	1	0	0	17:51
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	10:53
M. RossiC · #93	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:23
M. SassonC · #63	1	1	1	3	0	2	0	12:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	14:02
F. HronekD · #17	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	25:04
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:58
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	2	3	1	1	2	0	27:12
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	20:08
T. WillanderD · #5	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	21:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	23	3	20	.870	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	23:22
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	16:45
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:34
R. DonatoC · #8	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	12:49
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	19:37
A. MangiapaneLW · #26	0	0	-1	0	3	0	2	8:52
I. MikheyevRW · #95	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	13:52
O. MooreC · #11	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	14:10
F. NazarC · #91	1	1	-2	3	2	0	0	20:02
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	10:22
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	18:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	17:53
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	7:42
M. GrzelcykD · #48	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	16:38
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	16:04
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	20:09
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	18:24
A. VlasicD · #72	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	19:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SoderblomG · #40	20	4	16	.800	58:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VAN wins series 2-1

Oct 18

VAN3@

CHI2

Nov 6

CHI5@

VAN2

Mar 7

VAN6@

CHI3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+13043%

CHI-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 58 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VAN beat CHI 6-3. B. Boeser led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VAN	3	0	3	6
CHI	2	1	0	3

Period scoring

VAN won 2 · CHI won 1

VAN

CHI

Play-by-play · 274 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VAN 6·CHI 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VAN 6·CHI 3
3rd·19:53
Nils Hoglander Backhand Wide Right
·
VAN 6·CHI 3
3rd·19:44
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Oliver Moore
·
VAN 6·CHI 3
3rd·19:44
Brock Boeser Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (12), Filip Hronek (30)
· ·
VAN 6·CHI 3
3rd·19:38
Giveaway by Frank Nazar
VAN 5·CHI 3
3rd·19:13
Marco Rossi faceoff won against Frank Nazar
·
VAN 5·CHI 3
3rd·19:13
Icing
VAN 5·CHI 3
3rd·19:08
Giveaway by Connor Bedard
VAN 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:34
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Marco Rossi
·
VAN 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:34
Max Sasson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none
VAN 5·CHI 3
3rd·18:30
Takeaway by Max Sasson
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·18:21
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·18:21
Icing
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·18:21
Timeout - Home
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·17:18
Giveaway by Brock Boeser
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·17:17
Takeaway by Brock Boeser
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·16:47
Marco Rossi faceoff won against Oliver Moore
·
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·16:47
Icing
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·16:19
Sam Rinzel shot blocked by Max Sasson
·
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·15:57
Filip Hronek hit Wyatt Kaiser
·
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·15:38
Frank Nazar hit Teddy Blueger
·
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·14:58
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Teuvo Teravainen
· ·
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·14:58
On-Ice Official
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·14:57
Andrew Mangiapane shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·14:23
Giveaway by Matt Grzelcyk
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·13:43
Sam Rinzel shot blocked by Linus Karlsson
·
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·13:38
Connor Bedard faceoff won against Aatu Räty
·
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·13:38
Goalie Stopped
VAN 4·CHI 3
3rd·13:36
Ryan Greene Snap Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
VAN 4·CHI 3

Betting line

CHI -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +130/CHI -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ancouver Canucks went into Chicago Blackhawks and beat them, 6–3.

VAN +1.5 cashed (CHI lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
63.2%
P(CHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.2%
P(CHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.2%
P(CHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at CHI?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vancouver CanucksChicago Blackhawks

Elsewhere in the NHL