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FINAL+1ANA
MTL

MTL

33-18-9

56
ANA

ANA

34-24-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesANA leads series 1-0VegasMTL -118

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Montreal Canadiens, 6–5.

ANA +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Cole Caufield

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Chris Kreider

Chris Kreider

LW · #20

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
5
6
MTL33-18-9ANA34-24-3
MTL

MTL

33-18-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

34-24-3

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

8

Season series

ANA leads series 1-0

Mar 7MTLMTL5@ANAANA6today
Mar 15ANAANA4@MTLMTL3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL-11854%
ANAANA-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat MTL 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
MTL203005
ANA212016

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · ANA won 2

2
2

1

0
1

2

3
2

3

0
0

OT

0
1

SO

MTL
ANA

Play-by-play · 338 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    MTL 1·ANA 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    MTL 1·ANA 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    MTL 1·ANA 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Oliver Kapanen Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    MTL 1·ANA 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Alex Killorn Goal Snap Shot

    MTL 1·ANA 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Lane Hutson failed shot attempt on Lukas Dostal

    ·

    MTL 1·ANA 2

  7. SO·0:00

    Chris Kreider Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault

    ·

    MTL 1·ANA 1

  8. SO·0:00

    Ivan Demidov Goal Snap Shot

    MTL 1·ANA 2

  9. SO·0:00

    Cutter Gauthier Goal Snap Shot

    MTL 1·ANA 2

  10. SO·0:00

    Kirby Dach Backhand saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    MTL 0·ANA 1

  11. SO·0:00

    Mason McTavish Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault

    ·

    MTL 0·ANA 1

  12. SO·0:00

    Nick Suzuki Backhand saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    MTL 1·ANA 2

  13. SO·0:00

    Beckett Sennecke Backhand saved by Samuel Montembeault

    ·

    MTL 0·ANA 0

  14. SO·0:00

    Cole Caufield Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    MTL 0·ANA 0

  15. SO·0:00

    Leo Carlsson Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 0·ANA 0

  16. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    MTL 0·ANA 0

  17. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  18. OT·4:51

    Giveaway by Radko Gudas

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  19. OT·4:47

    Juraj Slafkovský Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  20. OT·4:14

    Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  21. OT·3:58

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Alex Killorn

    ·

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  22. OT·3:58

    Goalie Stopped

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  23. OT·3:56

    Cole Caufield Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  24. OT·3:21

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  25. OT·3:21

    Off-side

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  26. OT·2:59

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  27. OT·2:59

    Olen Zellweger Tripping against Lane Hutson

    ·

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  28. OT·2:42

    Giveaway by Cole Caufield

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  29. OT·2:04

    Cutter Gauthier faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 5·ANA 5

  30. OT·2:04

    Puck in Netting

    MTL 5·ANA 5

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

28

Shots

33

25.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

8

33

Faceoffs W

27

15

Blocks

12

17

Giveaways

15

3

Takeaways

4

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -118/ANA -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Arber XhekajMTL · D
    SHOT MPH98.598

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR