Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ANA

MTL

33-18-9

ANA

34-24-3

NHLFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesANA leads series 1-0VegasMTL -118

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

3Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Chris Kreider

LW · #20

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	1	2	12:57
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	1	1	2	5	1	0	15:54
C. CaufieldRW · #13	2	1	2	4	0	0	0	19:48
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	16:58
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:40
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	15:11
J. EvansC · #71	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	17:14
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	12:18
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:46
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-3	2	1	1	0	14:38
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	21:13
N. SuzukiC · #14	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	23:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	16:13
N. DobsonD · #53	0	2	1	4	1	1	0	24:56
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	-1	0	2	5	0	19:42
L. HutsonD · #48	1	2	2	2	0	1	0	25:51
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	23:16
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	11:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. MontembeaultG · #35	33	5	28	.848	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	1	1	1	4	0	0	2	17:30
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	18:04
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	10:28
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	10:43
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	20:10
C. KreiderLW · #20	1	3	2	4	0	0	0	17:40
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	10:43
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	22:25
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-1	5	2	1	0	19:41
F. VatranoRW · #77	0	1	0	0	3	1	0	11:11
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:36
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GudasD · #7	1	0	1	2	1	1	2	19:11
J. LaCombeD · #2	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	27:07
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	16:45
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	16:04
J. TroubaD · #65	0	2	1	1	0	0	2	28:36
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	1	3	0	3	2	18:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	28	5	23	.821	63:51

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

ANA leads series 1-0

Mar 7

MTL5@

ANA6today

Mar 15

ANA4@

MTL3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-11854%

ANA-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat MTL 6-5. C. Kreider led the way — 1 G · 3 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
MTL	2	0	3	0	0	5
ANA	2	1	2	0	1	6

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · ANA won 2

MTL

ANA

Play-by-play · 338 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
MTL 1·ANA 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
MTL 1·ANA 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
MTL 1·ANA 2
SO·0:00
Oliver Kapanen Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
MTL 1·ANA 2
SO·0:00
Alex Killorn Goal Snap Shot
MTL 1·ANA 2
SO·0:00
Lane Hutson failed shot attempt on Lukas Dostal
·
MTL 1·ANA 2
SO·0:00
Chris Kreider Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 1·ANA 1
SO·0:00
Ivan Demidov Goal Snap Shot
MTL 1·ANA 2
SO·0:00
Cutter Gauthier Goal Snap Shot
MTL 1·ANA 2
SO·0:00
Kirby Dach Backhand saved by Lukas Dostal
·
MTL 0·ANA 1
SO·0:00
Mason McTavish Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 0·ANA 1
SO·0:00
Nick Suzuki Backhand saved by Lukas Dostal
·
MTL 1·ANA 2
SO·0:00
Beckett Sennecke Backhand saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 0·ANA 0
SO·0:00
Cole Caufield Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
MTL 0·ANA 0
SO·0:00
Leo Carlsson Backhand Wide Right
·
MTL 0·ANA 0
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
MTL 0·ANA 0
OT·5:00
End of OT
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·4:51
Giveaway by Radko Gudas
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·4:47
Juraj Slafkovský Slap Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·4:14
Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·3:58
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Alex Killorn
·
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·3:58
Goalie Stopped
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·3:56
Cole Caufield Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·3:21
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·3:21
Off-side
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·2:59
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·2:59
Olen Zellweger Tripping against Lane Hutson
·
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·2:42
Giveaway by Cole Caufield
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·2:04
Cutter Gauthier faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 5·ANA 5
OT·2:04
Puck in Netting
MTL 5·ANA 5

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -118/ANA -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Montreal Canadiens, 6–5.

ANA +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
56.3%
P(ANA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.3%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.3%
P(ANA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL